比特币（BTC）在过去12个小时内增长了3.38％，试图从周五的残酷更正中恢复

在过去的12个小时中，比特币（BTC）上涨了3.38％，试图从周五的残酷更正中恢复。技术和链上的数据表明，为什么BTC价格重新访问了111,959.5美元的历史最高点或向上推高120,000美元的价格。

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 3.38% in the past 12 hours, attempting to recover from Friday’s brutal correction. Technical and on-chain data show why BTC price revisiting of the all-time high of $111,959.5 or a push higher toward $120,000 is unlikely.

在过去的12个小时中，比特币（BTC）上涨了3.38％，试图从周五的残酷更正中恢复。技术和链上的数据表明，为什么BTC价格重新访问了111,959.5美元的历史最高点或向上推高120,000美元的价格。

Why BTC Price Climbing To $120,000 Is Unlikely

为什么BTC价格攀升至$ 120,000不太可能

In the long run, Bitcoin (BTC) setting up an ATH beyond $120,000 is highly likely as the higher timeframe outlook is largely bullish. On a lower timeframe, the BTC price remains bearish due to three critical signals:

从长远来看，比特币（BTC）建立超过120,000美元以上的ATH很可能是可能的，因为较高的时间范围前景在很大程度上是看好的。在较低的时间范围内，由于三个关键信号，BTC价格仍然看跌：

These key developments suggest that a short-term pause or a pullback is highly likely here for BTC price.

这些关键的发展表明，在BTC价格上，很可能在短期停顿或回调很可能。

Bitcoin’s Weekly Chart Flashes Bearish Swing Failure Pattern

比特币的每周图表闪光灯看跌摇摆失败模式

The weekly candlestick close shows Bitcoin (BTC) price breached the previous ATH of $110K, but failed to close above it. This technical formation is termed a swing failure pattern, where the asset fails to show strength above closing above a key level.

每周的烛台关闭表明比特币（BTC）价格违反了以前的11万美元的ATH，但未能在其上方关闭。这种技术形成称为挥杆故障模式，资产未能显示出高于关键水平以上的强度。

Additionally, the RSI shows a lower high compared to Bitcoin’s higher high, displaying a classic bearish divergence pattern. The non-conformity between price and the momentum indicator shows the lack of bullish momentum, which often leads to a correction in the underlying asset.

此外，与比特币高高相比，RSI显示出较低的高度，显示出经典的看跌差异模式。价格和动量指标之间的不合格表明缺乏看涨的动力，这通常会导致基础资产的纠正。

In that regard, the 43% rally from $76,555 to $110,000 is a key higher timeframe price swing that investors should note. If the price is overextended as the indicators suggest, then a correction is due. When most rallies or uptrends face exhaustion, a correction to the fair value or discount mode is noted. In this case, the midpoint of the aforementioned 43% rally at $93,024 is the fair value. A push below this level would be considered discount mode and is often where smart money or whales accumulate.

在这方面，投资者应注意的是，43％的集会从76,555美元到$ 110,000是一个关键的更高时间范围。如果价格如指标所建议的过度扩张，则应进行更正。当大多数集会或上升趋势面临疲惫时，会注意到公允价值或折扣模式的更正。在这种情况下，上述43％集会的中点为93,024美元是公允价值。低于此级别的推动将被视为折扣模式，通常是智能金钱或鲸鱼积累的地方。

A previous CoinGape article noted four reasons why Bitcoin price may crash to $100K, which is inline with the above outlook. The said article notes an implied volatility-based sell signal as one of the reasons for a retracement.

以前的Coingape文章指出了比特币价格可能会崩溃至$ 10万美元的四个原因，这与上述外观有关。上述文章指出，隐含的基于波动率的卖出信号是回撤的原因之一。

Whales Offload BTC Holdings

鲸鱼卸载BTC持有

Santiment’s blockchain data shows whales holding between 100K to 1M BTC are selling. These smart investors’ holdings spiked from 647.73K to 679.63K between February and April 2025. They accumulated when Bitcoin price consolidated between $75K and $88K. Now, these investors are offloading, adding headwinds to price, which is already under a key resistance level.

Santiment的区块链数据表明，在BTC售出100万至1M之间的鲸鱼正在出售。这些聪明的投资者的持股量从2月至2025年4月之间从647.73k到679.63K飙升至679.63K。当比特币价格合并在75,000美元至8.8万美元之间时，它们累积了。现在，这些投资者正在卸载，增加了价格的逆风，这已经处于关键阻力水平。

Profit-Taking Activity Accelerates As BTC Consolidates Below Previous ATH

BTC巩固以下ATH以下的盈利活动会加速

Typically, when Bitcoin price approaches its previous ATH or sets up a new one in close vicinity, there’s a lot of profit-taking activity. Investors who bought at the previous top or before the rally are attempting to cash in some gains. As a result, BTC price continues to consolidate around previous highs.

通常，当比特币价格接近以前的ATH或在附近建立新的ATH时，就会有很多利润活动。在上一层或集会之前购买的投资者正在尝试以某些收益兑现。结果，BTC价格继续巩固以前的高点。

The Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) Indicator spiked from 2.3B to 9.18B as BTC price rose from $82K to $111K. History shows that large upticks in NPL often coincide with local tops as investors sell to realize gains.

该网络实现了从2.3b到9.18b的损益/损失（NPL）指标，BTC价格从82K美元上涨至11.1万美元。历史表明，随着投资者出售以实现收益，NPL的大型上升通常与当地上衣相吻合。

To conclude, the weekly chart shows weakness, which is clearly echoed by whales’ behavior and the NPL indicator spike. As more investors book profits, the chances of a potential correction to key support levels are highly likely. Unless new capital flows in, the chances of a BTC price rally to $120,000 or higher are not possible.

总而言之，每周图表显示出弱点，这显然是鲸鱼的行为和NPL指标尖峰的回应。随着越来越多的投资者预订利润，很可能有可能对关键支持水平进行纠正的机会。除非新资本流入，否则BTC价格集会的机会不可能达到120,000美元或更高。

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

常见问题（常见问题解答）