比特幣 (BTC) 到 2024 年底可能會達到 10 萬美元，但這並不重要

隨著現貨比特幣 ETF 的額外影響，加上減半的影響仍在顯現，2024 年比特幣有望達到令人垂涎的六位數大關。

When discussing Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) (and cryptocurrencies in general), there are very few things that are certain. However, as we gain a better understanding of Bitcoin's inner workings, some certainties do come into focus.

在討論比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）（以及一般的加密貨幣）時，幾乎沒有什麼是確定的。然而，隨著我們對比特幣內部運作方式有了更好的了解，一些確定性確實成為人們關注的焦點。

With these in mind, it seems evident that just as Bitcoin hitting $1,000, $10,000, and $50,000 was practically inevitable, so too is a $100,000 price tag.

考慮到這些，很明顯，就像比特幣觸及 1,000 美元、10,000 美元和 50,000 美元實際上是不可避免的一樣，100,000 美元的價格標籤也是不可避免的。

One of Bitcoin's fundamental characteristics that influence its price the most is the halving. A halving event occurs about every four years, cutting the reward that miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain in half. As a control for the only way that new bitcoins enter circulation, by reducing the miner reward, the halving essentially slashes Bitcoin's inflation rate.

比特幣對其價格影響最大的基本特徵之一是減半。減半事件大約每四年發生一次，將礦工因向區塊鏈添加新區塊而獲得的獎勵減少一半。作為控制新比特幣進入流通的唯一方式，透過減少礦工獎勵，減半實質上降低了比特幣的通貨膨脹率。

By reducing its inflation rate, the halving alters the dynamics around Bitcoin's supply and demand. With the halving, even if demand remains constant, its price must rise to offset the reduced supply.

透過降低通貨膨脹率，減半改變了比特幣供需的動態。隨著減半，即使需求保持不變，其價格也必須上漲以抵消供應的減少。

So far, Bitcoin has undergone four halvings, with the most recent one occurring in April of this year, cutting the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC and pushing its inflation rate to less than 1%. While it might not seem like a big deal, the halving process is the most significant factor that has affected Bitcoin's price over the years.

到目前為止，比特幣已經經歷了四次減半，最近一次減半發生在今年 4 月，將區塊獎勵從 6.25 BTC 削減至 3.125 BTC，並將其通膨率推至低於 1%。雖然這看起來沒什麼大不了的，但減半過程是多年來影響比特幣價格的最重要因素。

Historically, Bitcoin tends to see significant price increases in the year following a halving. On average, Bitcoin has jumped roughly 125% higher in halving years. If we measure Bitcoin's price at the beginning of the year, which was around $45,000, a 125% increase would put its price at $99,000. This historical pattern suggests that Bitcoin could come very close to the six-figure mark by the end of the year.

從歷史上看，比特幣價格往往會在減半後的一年內大幅上漲。平均而言，比特幣在減半的年份上漲了約 125%。如果我們衡量比特幣年初的價格（約為 45,000 美元），則上漲 125% 後其價格將達到 99,000 美元。這一歷史模式表明，比特幣到今年年底可能會非常接近六位數大關。

If things unfold similarly to past halving years, Bitcoin could find itself near six figures, but not quite. To add a little more certainty that it has what it takes to hit $100,000 sooner than later, there's another factor to consider -- spot Bitcoin ETFs.

如果事情的發展與過去的減半年類似，比特幣可能會發現自己接近六位數，但並非完全如此。為了更確定它是否有能力早日達到 10 萬美元，還有另一個因素需要考慮——現貨比特幣 ETF。

In January 2024, 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, marking a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency and the greater crypto market overall. These ETFs are designed to track the actual price of Bitcoin and offer investors an easy way to gain Bitcoin exposure through traditional brokerages without having to navigate complicated cryptocurrency exchanges. Essentially, the spot Bitcoin ETFs democratize access to Bitcoin and open up the cryptocurrency to new buyers.

2024 年 1 月，11 隻現貨比特幣 ETF 獲得批准，這標誌著加密貨幣和整個加密市場的一個重要里程碑。這些 ETF 旨在追蹤比特幣的實際價格，並為投資者提供一種透過傳統經紀公司獲得比特幣曝險的簡單方法，而無需瀏覽複雜的加密貨幣交易所。從本質上講，現貨比特幣 ETF 使比特幣的獲取更加民主化，並向新買家開放了加密貨幣。

While the ETFs will allow retail investors easier access to Bitcoin, the major effect of these ETFs is seen in the realm of institutional investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs help open up the doors for institutional investors to buy Bitcoin by providing a regulated, familiar investment vehicle. We are starting to see interest grow, as more than half of the top 20 largest hedge funds now have Bitcoin exposure, and this number will likely continue to rise.

雖然 ETF 將使散戶投資者更容易獲得比特幣，但這些 ETF 的主要影響體現在機構投資者領域。現貨比特幣 ETF 透過提供受監管的、熟悉的投資工具，為機構投資者購買比特幣打開了大門。我們開始看到人們的興趣正在增長，因為前 20 名最大的對沖基金中有一半以上現在擁有比特幣敞口，而且這個數字可能會繼續上升。

We are still in the beginning stages of the spot Bitcoin ETFs' effect, but its significance is already clear. At one point, these 11 ETFs were buying more than 10 times the daily production rate of Bitcoin -- and that was before the halving. In the wake of this buying spree, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed from $45,000 to its current high of more than $73,000.

我們仍處於現貨比特幣 ETF 效應的開始階段，但其意義已經顯而易見。在某一時刻，這 11 隻 ETF 的購買量是比特幣日產量的 10 倍以上——那是在減半之前。在這場購買熱潮之後，比特幣的價格從 45,000 美元飆升至目前超過 73,000 美元的高點。

The rate of buying has subsided over the last couple of months. But if it were to return to these levels, the ETFs would be buying at more than 20 times the daily production rate now that the halving has passed.

過去幾個月購買率有所下降。但如果要回到這些水平，那麼既然減半已經過去，ETF 的買入價將是日產量的 20 倍以上。

With the added effect of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, plus the effects of the halving still materializing, 2024 is shaping up to be the year that Bitcoin hits the coveted six-figure mark. However, it is imperative to remember that investing in Bitcoin should be done with the long haul in mind.

隨著現貨比特幣 ETF 的額外影響，加上減半的影響仍在顯現，2024 年比特幣有望達到令人垂涎的六位數大關。然而，必須記住，投資比特幣應該考慮長遠。

To be honest, whatever happens in 2024 shouldn't matter all that much. It would be nice if Bitcoin were to keep rising, but even if it doesn't, the cryptocurrency's long-term potential would still be intact. Thanks to its finite supply, plus other intangibles like its leading levels of decentralization, security, and resilience, Bitcoin's value is positioned to keep appreciating as the decades pass.

老實說，2024 年發生什麼事都不會那麼重要。如果比特幣繼續上漲那就太好了，但即使不上漲，加密貨幣的長期潛力仍然完好無損。由於其供應量有限，加上其領先水準的去中心化、安全性和彈性等其他無形資產，比特幣的價值將隨著數十年的過去而不斷升值。

If there's one thing Bitcoin has proved, it is that it rewards the long-term investor. As halvings continue to compound on each other, holders begin to see portfolios grow. Whether Bitcoin hits $100,000 in 2024, 2025, or some other year, the cryptocurrency remains an attractive buy as it continues its journey of long-term price appreciation.

如果比特幣證明了一件事，那就是它獎勵了長期投資者。隨著減半繼續相互疊加，持有者開始看到投資組合成長。無論比特幣在 2024 年、2025 年或其他年份達到 10 萬美元，這種加密貨幣仍然具有吸引力，因為它繼續其長期價格升值之旅。