比特币 (BTC) 到 2024 年底可能会达到 100,000 美元，但这并不重要

随着现货比特币 ETF 的额外影响，加上减半的影响仍在显现，2024 年比特币有望达到令人垂涎的六位数大关。

When discussing Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) (and cryptocurrencies in general), there are very few things that are certain. However, as we gain a better understanding of Bitcoin's inner workings, some certainties do come into focus.

在讨论比特币（加密货币：BTC）（以及一般的加密货币）时，几乎没有什么是确定的。然而，随着我们对比特币内部运作方式有了更好的了解，一些确定性确实成为人们关注的焦点。

With these in mind, it seems evident that just as Bitcoin hitting $1,000, $10,000, and $50,000 was practically inevitable, so too is a $100,000 price tag.

考虑到这些，很明显，就像比特币触及 1,000 美元、10,000 美元和 50,000 美元实际上是不可避免的一样，100,000 美元的价格标签也是不可避免的。

One of Bitcoin's fundamental characteristics that influence its price the most is the halving. A halving event occurs about every four years, cutting the reward that miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain in half. As a control for the only way that new bitcoins enter circulation, by reducing the miner reward, the halving essentially slashes Bitcoin's inflation rate.

比特币对其价格影响最大的基本特征之一是减半。减半事件大约每四年发生一次，将矿工因向区块链添加新区块而获得的奖励减少一半。作为控制新比特币进入流通的唯一方式，通过减少矿工奖励，减半实质上降低了比特币的通货膨胀率。

By reducing its inflation rate, the halving alters the dynamics around Bitcoin's supply and demand. With the halving, even if demand remains constant, its price must rise to offset the reduced supply.

通过降低通货膨胀率，减半改变了比特币供需的动态。随着减半，即使需求保持不变，其价格也必须上涨以抵消供应的减少。

So far, Bitcoin has undergone four halvings, with the most recent one occurring in April of this year, cutting the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC and pushing its inflation rate to less than 1%. While it might not seem like a big deal, the halving process is the most significant factor that has affected Bitcoin's price over the years.

到目前为止，比特币已经经历了四次减半，最近一次减半发生在今年 4 月，将区块奖励从 6.25 BTC 削减至 3.125 BTC，并将其通胀率推至低于 1%。虽然这看起来没什么大不了的，但减半过程是多年来影响比特币价格的最重要因素。

Historically, Bitcoin tends to see significant price increases in the year following a halving. On average, Bitcoin has jumped roughly 125% higher in halving years. If we measure Bitcoin's price at the beginning of the year, which was around $45,000, a 125% increase would put its price at $99,000. This historical pattern suggests that Bitcoin could come very close to the six-figure mark by the end of the year.

从历史上看，比特币价格往往会在减半后的一年内大幅上涨。平均而言，比特币在减半的年份里上涨了约 125%。如果我们衡量比特币年初的价格（约为 45,000 美元），则上涨 125% 后其价格将达到 99,000 美元。这一历史模式表明，比特币到今年年底可能会非常接近六位数大关。

If things unfold similarly to past halving years, Bitcoin could find itself near six figures, but not quite. To add a little more certainty that it has what it takes to hit $100,000 sooner than later, there's another factor to consider -- spot Bitcoin ETFs.

如果事情的发展与过去的减半年类似，比特币可能会发现自己接近六位数，但也并非完全如此。为了更加确定它是否有能力早日达到 100,000 美元，还有另一个因素需要考虑——现货比特币 ETF。

In January 2024, 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs were approved, marking a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency and the greater crypto market overall. These ETFs are designed to track the actual price of Bitcoin and offer investors an easy way to gain Bitcoin exposure through traditional brokerages without having to navigate complicated cryptocurrency exchanges. Essentially, the spot Bitcoin ETFs democratize access to Bitcoin and open up the cryptocurrency to new buyers.

2024 年 1 月，11 只现货比特币 ETF 获得批准，这标志着加密货币和整个加密市场的一个重要里程碑。这些 ETF 旨在跟踪比特币的实际价格，并为投资者提供一种通过传统经纪公司获得比特币敞口的简单方法，而无需浏览复杂的加密货币交易所。从本质上讲，现货比特币 ETF 使比特币的获取更加民主化，并向新买家开放了加密货币。

While the ETFs will allow retail investors easier access to Bitcoin, the major effect of these ETFs is seen in the realm of institutional investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs help open up the doors for institutional investors to buy Bitcoin by providing a regulated, familiar investment vehicle. We are starting to see interest grow, as more than half of the top 20 largest hedge funds now have Bitcoin exposure, and this number will likely continue to rise.

虽然 ETF 将使散户投资者更容易获得比特币，但这些 ETF 的主要影响体现在机构投资者领域。现货比特币 ETF 通过提供受监管的、熟悉的投资工具，为机构投资者购买比特币打开了大门。我们开始看到人们的兴趣在增长，因为前 20 名最大的对冲基金中有一半以上现在拥有比特币敞口，而且这个数字可能会继续上升。

We are still in the beginning stages of the spot Bitcoin ETFs' effect, but its significance is already clear. At one point, these 11 ETFs were buying more than 10 times the daily production rate of Bitcoin -- and that was before the halving. In the wake of this buying spree, Bitcoin's price skyrocketed from $45,000 to its current high of more than $73,000.

我们仍处于现货比特币 ETF 效应的开始阶段，但其意义已经显而易见。在某一时刻，这 11 只 ETF 的购买量是比特币日产量的 10 倍以上——那是在减半之前。在这场购买热潮之后，比特币的价格从 45,000 美元飙升至目前超过 73,000 美元的高位。

The rate of buying has subsided over the last couple of months. But if it were to return to these levels, the ETFs would be buying at more than 20 times the daily production rate now that the halving has passed.

过去几个月购买率有所下降。但如果要回到这些水平，那么既然减半已经过去，ETF 的买入价将是日产量的 20 倍以上。

With the added effect of the spot Bitcoin ETFs, plus the effects of the halving still materializing, 2024 is shaping up to be the year that Bitcoin hits the coveted six-figure mark. However, it is imperative to remember that investing in Bitcoin should be done with the long haul in mind.

随着现货比特币 ETF 的额外影响，加上减半的影响仍在显现，2024 年比特币有望达到令人垂涎的六位数大关。然而，必须记住，投资比特币应该考虑长远。

To be honest, whatever happens in 2024 shouldn't matter all that much. It would be nice if Bitcoin were to keep rising, but even if it doesn't, the cryptocurrency's long-term potential would still be intact. Thanks to its finite supply, plus other intangibles like its leading levels of decentralization, security, and resilience, Bitcoin's value is positioned to keep appreciating as the decades pass.

老实说，2024 年发生什么都不会那么重要。如果比特币继续上涨那就太好了，但即使不上涨，加密货币的长期潜力仍然完好无损。由于其供应量有限，加上其领先水平的去中心化、安全性和弹性等其他无形资产，比特币的价值将随着几十年的过去而不断升值。

If there's one thing Bitcoin has proved, it is that it rewards the long-term investor. As halvings continue to compound on each other, holders begin to see portfolios grow. Whether Bitcoin hits $100,000 in 2024, 2025, or some other year, the cryptocurrency remains an attractive buy as it continues its journey of long-term price appreciation.

如果比特币证明了一件事，那就是它奖励了长期投资者。随着减半继续相互叠加，持有者开始看到投资组合增长。无论比特币在 2024 年、2025 年还是其他年份达到 10 万美元，这种加密货币仍然具有吸引力，因为它继续其长期价格升值之旅。