比特幣 (BTC) 到以太幣 (ETH) - 當兩個關聯資產出現分歧時，只需進行一個簡單的調用

當兩個連結的資產出現分歧時，只需進行一個簡單的呼叫即可。這些資產將保持分散，並可能進一步分散，或在未來某個時候恢復。

When two linked assets diverge, there is a simple call to make. The assets will stay diverged and perhaps diverge further or they will revert at some time in the future. You can use these relationships to try and capture profit from a revision and you can even use a long short strategy to be market neutral while you do so.

當兩個連結的資產出現分歧時，只需進行一個簡單的呼叫即可。這些資產將保持分散，並可能進一步分散，或在未來某個時候恢復。您可以利用這些關係嘗試從修正中獲取利潤，甚至可以在這樣做時使用多空策略來保持市場中立。

Most people expect a resynchronization of past ratios of value but that doesn’t have to happen.

大多數人期望過去的價值比率會重新同步，但這並不是必須發生的。

Gold versus silver is a good example. Over history, gold has been 5x, 10x, 20x or even 80 times, as it is today, the value of silver.

黃金與白銀就是一個很好的例子。歷史上，黃金的價值是白銀的 5 倍、10 倍、20 倍甚至 80 倍（就像今天一樣）。

While there is still a legion of precious metal believers who yearn for the days of silver and gold money, the 20:1 ratio of gold to silver of the recent good old days is never coming back, even though there are certainly folks who hold the dream that it might.

儘管仍然有大批貴金屬信徒嚮往白銀和黃金貨幣的時代，但最近黃金與白銀20:1的美好時光已經一去不復返了，儘管肯定有人持有黃金和白銀的貨幣。

But it won’t.

但它不會。

In crypto, the similar metaphor is bitcoin (BTC) to ether (ETH). Since the bottom of the crypto winter, bitcoin has outperformed.

在加密貨幣中，類似的比喻是比特幣（BTC）到以太幣（ETH）。自加密貨幣冬季底部以來，比特幣的表現一直優於大盤。

Here is the chart:

這是圖表：

Bitcoin has outperformed ethereum since the last bottom

自上次觸底以來，比特幣的表現優於以太坊

I am positioned in crypto through ether because historically it runs further and longer than bitcoin has in the near past but as of now it’s underperformed.

我透過以太幣定位在加密貨幣，因為從歷史上看，它比比特幣在不久的過去運行得更遠、更長，但到目前為止，它的表現不佳。

If you wanted to explain that away, you might suggest that the ether developers keep messing with the blockchain, regularly injecting their new ideas into the system, that may or may not solve the blockchain’s issues they want to fix and that tinkering deflates the value of ether because it injects uncertainty. A bunch of geniuses fiddling with a crypto financial system, is in a way exactly the sort of thing that governments do with fiat and the reason why those that hate fiat and love crypto want out of fiat. So Ethereum developers acting like a central bank might just be a drag on its valuation. “Code as law” is not so compelling when some young faceless programmers can act like Judge Dredd with your crypto bags.

如果你想解釋這一點，你可能會建議以太坊開發人員繼續搞亂區塊鏈，定期將他們的新想法注入系統，這可能會也可能不會解決他們想要解決的區塊鏈問題，而修補會降低區塊鏈的價值。一群天才擺弄加密貨幣金融系統，某種程度上正是政府對法定貨幣所做的事情，也是那些討厭法定貨幣而熱愛加密貨幣的人想要擺脫法定貨幣的原因。因此，以太坊開發商像央行一樣行事可能只會拖累其估值。當一些年輕的不露面的程式設計師可以像德雷德法官一樣拿著你的加密包時，「代碼即法律」就不再那麼引人注目了。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is almost clear of that kind of meddling and there is no upending of the system every time some developers think there is something wrong with it. The very idea of decentralization still runs strong in bitcoin and amending its system is simply incredible difficult and its structure about as decentralized as it can be. Sadly, the recent proof of stake structure of Ethereum, while cuddly for the environment, leaves all kinds of risk surfaces open, whereas bitcoin just grinds on, apparently impenetrable to much in the way of human influence.

另一方面，比特幣幾乎不受這種幹擾，而且每次一些開發人員認為系統出現問題時，系統都不會被顛覆。去中心化的理念在比特幣中仍然很盛行，修改它的系統簡直是難以置信的困難，而且它的結構也盡可能地去中心化。可悲的是，以太坊最近的權益證明結構雖然對環境有利，但也留下了各種風險面，而比特幣則只是繼續磨蹭，顯然不受人類影響。

However, these a simply theoretical nitpicks.

然而，這些只是理論上的挑剔。

If bitcoin takes the longed-for next leg up, then ether will jump along with it and quite possibly catch up with bitcoin in percentage terms and perhaps run on further, as it did during the last run of crypto in 2021. An “all in” ether investor would also suggest that ether will dethrone bitcoin in the future, and if bitcoin were to get over $100,000 that could mean $25,000 a token for ether. I’m not in the camp of wild ether enthusiasts but you can understand the reasoning, however optimistic that might be. Another bitcoin rally above $100,000 would easily see ether at $8,000.

如果比特幣取得了期待已久的下一輪上漲，那麼以太坊將隨之上漲，並且很可能在百分比上趕上比特幣，甚至可能進一步上漲，就像 2021 年加密貨幣最後一次運行時那樣。以太坊投資者也表示，以太坊將在未來取代比特幣，如果比特幣價格超過10 萬美元，那麼以太坊代幣的價格可能會達到25,000 美元。我不屬於狂野以太坊愛好者的陣營，但你可以理解其中的推理，無論它多麼樂觀。如果比特幣再次上漲至 10 萬美元以上，以太幣將很容易達到 8,000 美元。

Ether will do well if bitcoin does well and it does have a chance of catching up if we see that final leg of this crypto cycle repeat past performances.

如果比特幣表現良好，以太幣也會表現良好，如果我們看到這個加密貨幣週期的最後一段重複過去的表現，它確實有機會迎頭趕上。

Meanwhile, ether ETFs are arriving and will suck in large amounts of ether, which should bolster the price. The ETFs started trading today, though the SEC is not exactly enthusiastic about crypto ETFs.

與此同時，以太坊 ETF 即將到來，並將吸收大量以太幣，這應該會提振價格。儘管 SEC 對加密 ETF 並不熱衷，但這些 ETF 今天開始交易。

So the call is not will ether catch up with bitcoin, but is crypto going to produce another leg up before the end of this cycle? If you think it is, then ether is sure to perform and has a good potential of outperforming bitcoin at the bitter end.

因此，人們的呼籲不是以太坊會趕上比特幣，而是加密貨幣是否會在本週期結束之前再次崛起？如果你這麼認為，那麼以太幣肯定會表現出色，並且在最後的結局中很有可能超越比特幣。

Crypto is not for the faint hearted but it is a nice diversifier and it can be a sprinkle of spice for a balanced portfolio. It is also about the only game in town for speculators with a lust for action–and of course that is what so many people come to the markets to enjoy. There will be no shortage of fireworks up to Christmas.

加密貨幣不適合膽小的人，但它是一個很好的分散投資工具，它可以成為平衡投資組合的調味品。對於渴望行動的投機者來說，這也是城裡唯一的遊戲——當然，這也是許多人來到市場的目的。直到聖誕節，煙火爆竹都不會少。