比特币 (BTC) 到以太币 (ETH) - 当两种关联资产出现分歧时，只需进行一个简单的调用

当两个链接的资产出现分歧时，只需进行一个简单的调用即可。这些资产将保持分散，并可能进一步分散，或者在未来某个时候恢复。

When two linked assets diverge, there is a simple call to make. The assets will stay diverged and perhaps diverge further or they will revert at some time in the future. You can use these relationships to try and capture profit from a revision and you can even use a long short strategy to be market neutral while you do so.

当两个链接的资产出现分歧时，只需进行一个简单的调用即可。这些资产将保持分散，并可能进一步分散，或者在未来某个时候恢复。您可以利用这些关系尝试从修正中获取利润，甚至可以在这样做时使用多空策略来保持市场中性。

Most people expect a resynchronization of past ratios of value but that doesn’t have to happen.

大多数人期望过去的价值比率重新同步，但这并不是必须发生的。

Gold versus silver is a good example. Over history, gold has been 5x, 10x, 20x or even 80 times, as it is today, the value of silver.

黄金与白银就是一个很好的例子。历史上，黄金的价值是白银的 5 倍、10 倍、20 倍甚至 80 倍（就像今天一样）。

While there is still a legion of precious metal believers who yearn for the days of silver and gold money, the 20:1 ratio of gold to silver of the recent good old days is never coming back, even though there are certainly folks who hold the dream that it might.

尽管仍然有大批贵金属信徒向往白银和黄金货币的时代，但最近黄金与白银20:1的美好时光已经一去不复返了，尽管肯定有人持有黄金和白银的货币。梦想它可能。

But it won’t.

但它不会。

In crypto, the similar metaphor is bitcoin (BTC) to ether (ETH). Since the bottom of the crypto winter, bitcoin has outperformed.

在加密货币中，类似的比喻是比特币（BTC）到以太坊（ETH）。自加密货币冬季底部以来，比特币的表现一直优于大盘。

Here is the chart:

这是图表：

Bitcoin has outperformed ethereum since the last bottom

自上次触底以来，比特币的表现优于以太坊

I am positioned in crypto through ether because historically it runs further and longer than bitcoin has in the near past but as of now it’s underperformed.

我通过以太币定位于加密货币，因为从历史上看，它比比特币在不久的过去运行得更远、更长，但到目前为止，它的表现不佳。

If you wanted to explain that away, you might suggest that the ether developers keep messing with the blockchain, regularly injecting their new ideas into the system, that may or may not solve the blockchain’s issues they want to fix and that tinkering deflates the value of ether because it injects uncertainty. A bunch of geniuses fiddling with a crypto financial system, is in a way exactly the sort of thing that governments do with fiat and the reason why those that hate fiat and love crypto want out of fiat. So Ethereum developers acting like a central bank might just be a drag on its valuation. “Code as law” is not so compelling when some young faceless programmers can act like Judge Dredd with your crypto bags.

如果你想解释这一点，你可能会建议以太坊开发人员继续搞乱区块链，定期将他们的新想法注入系统，这可能会也可能不会解决他们想要解决的区块链问题，而修补会降低区块链的价值。以太，因为它注入了不确定性。一群天才摆弄加密货币金融系统，在某种程度上正是政府对法定货币所做的事情，也是那些讨厌法定货币而热爱加密货币的人想要摆脱法定货币的原因。因此，以太坊开发商像央行一样行事可能只会拖累其估值。当一些年轻的不露面的程序员可以像德雷德法官一样拿着你的加密包时，“代码即法律”就不再那么引人注目了。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is almost clear of that kind of meddling and there is no upending of the system every time some developers think there is something wrong with it. The very idea of decentralization still runs strong in bitcoin and amending its system is simply incredible difficult and its structure about as decentralized as it can be. Sadly, the recent proof of stake structure of Ethereum, while cuddly for the environment, leaves all kinds of risk surfaces open, whereas bitcoin just grinds on, apparently impenetrable to much in the way of human influence.

另一方面，比特币几乎不受这种干扰，并且每当一些开发人员认为系统出现问题时，系统就不会被颠覆。去中心化的理念在比特币中仍然很盛行，修改它的系统简直是难以置信的困难，而且它的结构也尽可能地去中心化。可悲的是，以太坊最近的权益证明结构虽然对环境有利，但也留下了各种风险面，而比特币则只是继续磨蹭，显然不受人类影响。

However, these a simply theoretical nitpicks.

然而，这些只是理论上的挑剔。

If bitcoin takes the longed-for next leg up, then ether will jump along with it and quite possibly catch up with bitcoin in percentage terms and perhaps run on further, as it did during the last run of crypto in 2021. An “all in” ether investor would also suggest that ether will dethrone bitcoin in the future, and if bitcoin were to get over $100,000 that could mean $25,000 a token for ether. I’m not in the camp of wild ether enthusiasts but you can understand the reasoning, however optimistic that might be. Another bitcoin rally above $100,000 would easily see ether at $8,000.

如果比特币取得了期待已久的下一轮上涨，那么以太坊将随之上涨，并且很可能在百分比上赶上比特币，甚至可能进一步上涨，就像 2021 年加密货币最后一次运行时那样。以太坊投资者还表示，以太坊将在未来取代比特币，如果比特币价格超过 10 万美元，那么以太坊代币的价格可能会达到 25,000 美元。我不属于狂野以太坊爱好者的阵营，但你可以理解其中的推理，无论它多么乐观。如果比特币再次上涨至 100,000 美元以上，以太币将很容易达到 8,000 美元。

Ether will do well if bitcoin does well and it does have a chance of catching up if we see that final leg of this crypto cycle repeat past performances.

如果比特币表现良好，以太坊也会表现良好，如果我们看到这个加密货币周期的最后一段重复过去的表现，它确实有机会迎头赶上。

Meanwhile, ether ETFs are arriving and will suck in large amounts of ether, which should bolster the price. The ETFs started trading today, though the SEC is not exactly enthusiastic about crypto ETFs.

与此同时，以太坊 ETF 即将到来，并将吸收大量以太币，这应该会提振价格。尽管 SEC 对加密 ETF 并不热衷，但这些 ETF 今天开始交易。

So the call is not will ether catch up with bitcoin, but is crypto going to produce another leg up before the end of this cycle? If you think it is, then ether is sure to perform and has a good potential of outperforming bitcoin at the bitter end.

因此，人们的呼吁不是以太坊会赶上比特币，而是加密货币是否会在本周期结束之前再次崛起？如果你这么认为，那么以太币肯定会表现出色，并且在最后的结局中很有可能超越比特币。

Crypto is not for the faint hearted but it is a nice diversifier and it can be a sprinkle of spice for a balanced portfolio. It is also about the only game in town for speculators with a lust for action–and of course that is what so many people come to the markets to enjoy. There will be no shortage of fireworks up to Christmas.

加密货币不适合胆小的人，但它是一个很好的分散投资工具，它可以成为平衡投资组合的调味品。对于渴望行动的投机者来说，这也是城里唯一的游戏——当然，这也是许多人来到市场的目的。直到圣诞节，烟花爆竹都不会少。