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四月是主要資產類別的關鍵月份,動蕩的早期交易使比特幣成為明顯的跑步勝地。
April was a crucial month for the major asset classes, and turbulent early-month trading saw Bitcoin emerge as the clear outperformer.
四月是主要資產類別的關鍵月份,動蕩的早期交易使比特幣成為明顯的跑步勝地。
Data from the past 30 days show that not only did Bitcoin bounce back strongly after a sharp drop in the first week of April, but by month’s end it had also dramatically outpaced both gold and the S&P 500. Bitcoin’s emergence as the top performer is another way of saying that it is developing into a high-beta asset—which means it swings a lot in price compared to other investments but offers potential for much greater upside.
過去30天的數據表明,不僅比特幣在4月的第一周急劇下降後強烈反彈,而且到了月底,它還顯著超過了黃金和標準普爾500指數。比特幣的出現是最高的表現者,這是另一種說法,說它正在發展為高底塔的資產,這意味著與其他投資相比,這意味著要與其他投資相比,這意味著它的價格更高。
As an increasing number of investors begin to treat Bitcoin as a serious portfolio component rather than a speculative anomaly, its price behavior is starting to reflect something far more pedestrian: the generally positive or negative vibe coming from the broader economy. And the vibe from April’s data is anything but subtle. The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional equities—especially the S&P 500—is becoming much stronger. Indeed, in the realm of portfolio theory, Bitcoin is not so much the unusual equity it used to be thought of as, but more a potential risk factor common to a wide variety of assets.
隨著越來越多的投資者開始將比特幣視為一種嚴肅的投資組合組成部分,而不是投機性異常,其價格行為開始反映出行人更大的東西:從更廣泛的經濟體產生的通常積極或負面的氛圍。四月數據的氛圍絕非如此。比特幣與傳統股票(尤其是標準普爾500指數)之間的相關性變得更加強大。的確,在投資組合理論領域,比特幣並不是它過去被認為是不尋常的平等,而是更多的潛在風險因素,這是各種各樣的資產所共有的。
Major Asset Classes Performance In April
四月的主要資產類表現
[Chart of major asset classes performance in April]
[4月的主要資產類別表現圖]
A Volatile Start, a Strong Finish
一個動蕩的開始,結束了
At the start of April, Bitcoin was under pressure. Price levels were moving lower due to profit-taking and the general risk-off sentiment proliferating across the financial markets. But this dip was short-lived. In the following weeks, Bitcoin staged a dramatic comeback, moving almost in lock-step with the upward-moving S&P 500. By the end of April, Bitcoin had not only recouped its early losses but also had moved into positive territory, delivering a gain that exceeded gold and came within spitting distance of the benchmark U.S. stock index.
4月初,比特幣處於壓力下。由於獲利和一般的風險情緒在整個金融市場中增殖而變化較低。但是這種蘸醬是短暫的。在接下來的幾周中,比特幣進行了戲劇性的捲土重來,幾乎以向上移動的標準普爾500指數鎖定。到4月底,比特幣不僅彌補了其早期損失,而且還恢復了積極的領域,又進入了積極的領土,帶來了超過黃金的增長,並在基準標記的US股票零星範圍內佔據了距離。
Traditionally seen as a secure asset during times of economic instability, gold experienced only slight fluctuations during the month. While it edged upward, providing some modest gains, it failed to keep up with Bitcoin’s recovery. The S&P 500, meanwhile, enjoyed a nearly flawless month, finding support from both strong corporate earnings and investor optimism regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.
傳統上,在經濟不穩定時期,黃金在這個月內僅經歷了輕微的波動。儘管它向上逐漸增長,提供一些適度的收益,但未能跟上比特幣的恢復。同時,標準普爾500指數享受了一個近乎完美的月份,從強大的公司收入和投資者對美聯儲未來政策轉移的支持中獲得了支持。
The ability of Bitcoin to bounce back from short-term volatility and beat not just gold but also stocks speaks volumes about its nascent status in the global financial system. For investors, it ain’t yet a signal that the asset can ride market chop and come out whole but, rather, a sign that this is probably the next great monetary base.
比特幣從短期波動率中反彈並不僅擊敗黃金的能力,而且股票在全球金融體系中的新生狀況都在說明。對於投資者而言,這還沒有信號表明資產可以騎市場並全面發展,而是一個跡象表明這可能是下一個偉大的貨幣基地。
Correlation With the S&P 500 Reaches New Highs
與標準普爾500指數的相關性達到新的高點
April’s market data offers one of the most striking observations: the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is increasing. Analysts have observed that the path Bitcoin takes now often mirrors that of major stock indices. This is especially true when we consider the current state of the global macro economy. In April, for instance, the S&P 500 rose and subsequently fell in about the same time frame as Bitcoin. This solidifies the idea that, in terms of the apparent movement to either side of a mean average price, Bitcoin is behaving more like a high-beta stock than an uncorrelated asset.
4月的市場數據提供了最引人注目的觀察之一:比特幣與標準普爾500指數之間的相關性正在增加。分析師已經觀察到,路徑比特幣現在經常反映出主要庫存指數的路徑。當我們考慮全球宏觀經濟的當前狀態時,尤其如此。例如,在4月,標準普爾500指數上升,隨後與比特幣相同。這鞏固了這樣一個觀念,即,就平均平均價格的明顯轉移而言,比特幣的行為更像是一種高β股票,而不是不相關的資產。
Although the S&P 500 finished the month marginally better than Bitcoin, the two were closely aligned. The close tracking implies that Bitcoin is now a market player, not isolated in a realm of its own. Like any public asset, it now responds to the same stimuli as the traditional market—interest rate expectations, inflation data, and general investor sentiment.
儘管標準普爾500指數比比特幣要好得多,但兩者卻緊密地對齊。近距離跟踪意味著比特幣現在是一個市場參與者,而不是在自己的領域中孤立。像任何公共資產一樣,它現在對與傳統市場相同的刺激做出了反應 - 最早的期望,通貨膨脹數據和一般投資者的情緒。
This increasing correlation could undermine the story of Bitcoin as a “hedge” against traditional financial markets. Instead, it makes Bitcoin a risk-on asset—one that provides even more amplified exposure to the trends driving the stock market—because in both cases, we have investors trying to juice their returns.
這種增加的相關性可能會破壞比特幣作為對傳統金融市場的“對沖”的故事。取而代之的是,它使比特幣成為風險的資產 - 一種可以提供更多放大的對推動股票市場的趨勢的影響 - 因為在這兩種情況下,我們都有投資者試圖將其收益給。
Bitcoin Offers Higher Alpha With Familiar Risks
比特幣提供較高的α和熟悉的風險
Despite being so volatile, Bitcoin is still an alluring prospect because it has the potential to produce a high alpha. An alpha, of course, is the fancy term for investment performance that exceeds a market benchmark. April’s price action for Bitcoin reinforced this.
儘管比特幣如此易變,但比特幣仍然是一個誘人的前景,因為它有可能產生高α。當然,Alpha是超過市場基準的投資績效的奇特術語。四月對比特幣的價格行動加強了這一點。
While the S&P
而標準普爾
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