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四月是主要资产类别的关键月份,动荡的早期交易使比特币成为明显的跑步胜地。
April was a crucial month for the major asset classes, and turbulent early-month trading saw Bitcoin emerge as the clear outperformer.
四月是主要资产类别的关键月份,动荡的早期交易使比特币成为明显的跑步胜地。
Data from the past 30 days show that not only did Bitcoin bounce back strongly after a sharp drop in the first week of April, but by month’s end it had also dramatically outpaced both gold and the S&P 500. Bitcoin’s emergence as the top performer is another way of saying that it is developing into a high-beta asset—which means it swings a lot in price compared to other investments but offers potential for much greater upside.
过去30天的数据表明,不仅比特币在4月的第一周急剧下降后强烈反弹,而且到了月底,它还显着超过了黄金和标准普尔500指数。比特币的出现是最高的表现者,这是另一种说法,说它正在发展为高底塔的资产,这意味着与其他投资相比,这意味着要与其他投资相比,这意味着它的价格更高。
As an increasing number of investors begin to treat Bitcoin as a serious portfolio component rather than a speculative anomaly, its price behavior is starting to reflect something far more pedestrian: the generally positive or negative vibe coming from the broader economy. And the vibe from April’s data is anything but subtle. The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional equities—especially the S&P 500—is becoming much stronger. Indeed, in the realm of portfolio theory, Bitcoin is not so much the unusual equity it used to be thought of as, but more a potential risk factor common to a wide variety of assets.
随着越来越多的投资者开始将比特币视为一种严肃的投资组合组成部分,而不是投机性异常,其价格行为开始反映出行人更大的东西:从更广泛的经济体产生的通常积极或负面的氛围。四月数据的氛围绝非如此。比特币与传统股票(尤其是标准普尔500指数)之间的相关性变得更加强大。的确,在投资组合理论领域,比特币并不是它过去被认为是不寻常的平等,而是更多的潜在风险因素,这是各种各样的资产所共有的。
Major Asset Classes Performance In April
四月的主要资产类表现
[Chart of major asset classes performance in April]
[4月的主要资产类别表现图]
A Volatile Start, a Strong Finish
一个动荡的开始,结束了
At the start of April, Bitcoin was under pressure. Price levels were moving lower due to profit-taking and the general risk-off sentiment proliferating across the financial markets. But this dip was short-lived. In the following weeks, Bitcoin staged a dramatic comeback, moving almost in lock-step with the upward-moving S&P 500. By the end of April, Bitcoin had not only recouped its early losses but also had moved into positive territory, delivering a gain that exceeded gold and came within spitting distance of the benchmark U.S. stock index.
4月初,比特币处于压力下。由于获利和一般的风险情绪在整个金融市场中增殖而变化较低。但是这种蘸酱是短暂的。在接下来的几周中,比特币进行了戏剧性的卷土重来,几乎以向上移动的标准普尔500指数锁定。到4月底,比特币不仅弥补了其早期损失,而且还恢复了积极的领域,又进入了积极的领土,带来了超过黄金的增长,并在基准标记的US股票零星范围内占据了距离。
Traditionally seen as a secure asset during times of economic instability, gold experienced only slight fluctuations during the month. While it edged upward, providing some modest gains, it failed to keep up with Bitcoin’s recovery. The S&P 500, meanwhile, enjoyed a nearly flawless month, finding support from both strong corporate earnings and investor optimism regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policy moves.
传统上,在经济不稳定时期,黄金在这个月内仅经历了轻微的波动。尽管它向上逐渐增长,提供一些适度的收益,但未能跟上比特币的恢复。同时,标准普尔500指数享受了一个近乎完美的月份,从强大的公司收入和投资者对美联储未来政策转移的支持中获得了支持。
The ability of Bitcoin to bounce back from short-term volatility and beat not just gold but also stocks speaks volumes about its nascent status in the global financial system. For investors, it ain’t yet a signal that the asset can ride market chop and come out whole but, rather, a sign that this is probably the next great monetary base.
比特币从短期波动率中反弹并不仅击败黄金的能力,而且股票在全球金融体系中的新生状况都在说明。对于投资者而言,这还没有信号表明资产可以骑市场并全面发展,而是一个迹象表明这可能是下一个伟大的货币基地。
Correlation With the S&P 500 Reaches New Highs
与标准普尔500指数的相关性达到新的高点
April’s market data offers one of the most striking observations: the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is increasing. Analysts have observed that the path Bitcoin takes now often mirrors that of major stock indices. This is especially true when we consider the current state of the global macro economy. In April, for instance, the S&P 500 rose and subsequently fell in about the same time frame as Bitcoin. This solidifies the idea that, in terms of the apparent movement to either side of a mean average price, Bitcoin is behaving more like a high-beta stock than an uncorrelated asset.
4月的市场数据提供了最引人注目的观察之一:比特币与标准普尔500指数之间的相关性正在增加。分析师已经观察到,路径比特币现在经常反映出主要库存指数的路径。当我们考虑全球宏观经济的当前状态时,尤其如此。例如,在4月,标准普尔500指数上升,随后与比特币相同。这巩固了这样一个观念,即,就平均平均价格的明显转移而言,比特币的行为更像是一种高β股票,而不是不相关的资产。
Although the S&P 500 finished the month marginally better than Bitcoin, the two were closely aligned. The close tracking implies that Bitcoin is now a market player, not isolated in a realm of its own. Like any public asset, it now responds to the same stimuli as the traditional market—interest rate expectations, inflation data, and general investor sentiment.
尽管标准普尔500指数比比特币要好得多,但两者却紧密地对齐。近距离跟踪意味着比特币现在是一个市场参与者,而不是在自己的领域中孤立。像任何公共资产一样,它现在对与传统市场相同的刺激做出了反应 - 最早的期望,通货膨胀数据和一般投资者的情绪。
This increasing correlation could undermine the story of Bitcoin as a “hedge” against traditional financial markets. Instead, it makes Bitcoin a risk-on asset—one that provides even more amplified exposure to the trends driving the stock market—because in both cases, we have investors trying to juice their returns.
这种增加的相关性可能会破坏比特币作为对传统金融市场的“对冲”的故事。取而代之的是,它使比特币成为风险的资产 - 一种可以提供更多放大的对推动股票市场的趋势的影响 - 因为在这两种情况下,我们都有投资者试图将其收益给。
Bitcoin Offers Higher Alpha With Familiar Risks
比特币提供较高的α和熟悉的风险
Despite being so volatile, Bitcoin is still an alluring prospect because it has the potential to produce a high alpha. An alpha, of course, is the fancy term for investment performance that exceeds a market benchmark. April’s price action for Bitcoin reinforced this.
尽管比特币如此易变,但比特币仍然是一个诱人的前景,因为它有可能产生高α。当然,Alpha是超过市场基准的投资绩效的奇特术语。四月对比特币的价格行动加强了这一点。
While the S&P
而标准普尔
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