比特币（BTC）在明天的高风险FOMC会议之前，将比特币（BTC）紧贴$ 94,350

CME FedWatch工具显示出98.2％的利率概率保持不变，而技术指标则表明潜在的10万美元突破性论文。

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $94,350 as it tries to stay afloat ahead of tomorrow’s high-stakes FOMC meeting.

比特币（BTC）的交易价格为94,350美元，因为它试图在明天的高风险FOMC会议之前保持漂浮。

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 98.2% probability of rates remaining unchanged, but traders are bracing for wild price swings as the Fed balances stubborn inflation with White House pressure for rate cuts.

CME FedWatch工具显示，由于美联储平衡固执的通货膨胀与白宫的压力减少税率，交易者的费率可能保持不变，但交易者的利率概率保持在98.2％。

The technical picture also suggests a potential $100K breakout thesis, which could come into play if sellers fail to follow through on recent attempts to push the price lower.

技术图片还表明，如果卖家未能遵循最近的尝试以降低价格的尝试，则可能会发挥10万美元的突破性论文。

Trump’s Tariffs & Comments Show Increasing Urgency For Rate Cuts

特朗普的关税和评论表明，削减税率的紧迫性

The White House has been increasingly vocal about the need for rate cuts, specifically tying the request to the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy.

白宫越来越多地宣告需要削减税率，特别是将关税对美国经济的影响绑定。

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unconvinced and has stuck to his “wait-and-see” stance, preferring to see clear signs of economic deterioration before making any rash decisions.

但是，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）仍然不相信，并坚持他的“拭目以待”的立场，宁愿在做出任何轻率决定之前看到明显的经济恶化迹象。

“Powell won’t cut rates based on economic forecasts alone. The Fed needs to see actual deterioration in employment data before making its move,” notes a former high-ranking Fed official who worked alongside him.

“鲍威尔不会仅仅基于经济预测来降低费率。美联储在采取行动之前就需要在就业数据中进行实际恶化，”一位与他一起工作的前高级美联储官员指出。

Despite the tension between political desires and economic reality, the Fed Watch Tool currently shows overwhelming consensus (98.2% probability) that rates will remain unchanged at 425-450 basis points tomorrow. This shows that Powell is ready to wait it out. It also highlights the disconnect between market expectations and political pressures.

尽管政治愿望与经济现实之间有紧张的张力，但美联储手表工具目前表现出了压倒性的共识（98.2％的概率），即明天的利率将保持在425-450的基点。这表明鲍威尔已准备好等待它。它还突出了市场期望与政治压力之间的脱节。

On the other hand, stubborn inflation data continues to complicate the Fed’s decision-making process, which will be a key topic to observe in the FOMC meeting on May 7.

另一方面，顽固的通货膨胀数据继续使美联储的决策过程变得复杂，这将是5月7日的FOMC会议中要观察的关键主题。

The Chart Shows Treasury Buybacks & Rising Probability Of Recession

该图显示了财政部回购和经济衰退的可能性上升

In a significant yet underreported development, the Fed announced a $5 billion monthly Treasury buyback program that effectively maintains its position as a net buyer. This technical adjustment is helping to cap long-end yields even as short-term rates edge higher, creating a complex yield curve dynamic that Bitcoin traders are still coming to terms with.

在一项重大尚未报告的开发项目中，美联储宣布了一项每月50亿美元的财政回购计划，有效地保持了其作为净买家的地位。即使短期利率更高，这种技术调整也有助于限制长端收益率，从而创造了比特币交易者仍在达到的复杂产量曲线动态。

The economic outlook remains precarious. Recession probability models now show a 57% chance of economic contraction in 2025 – better than last week’s 63% reading, but still alarmingly high. This uncertainty, coupled with potential tariff impacts from the Trump administration, creates a challenging backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin.

经济前景仍然不稳定。衰退概率模型现在显示2025年经济收缩的机会有57％ - 比上周的63％的阅读量要好得多，但仍然令人震惊。这种不确定性，加上特朗普政府的潜在关税影响，为像比特币这样的风险资产带来了挑战性的背景。

The Final Make-Or-Break Level For Bitcoin

比特币的最终制成水平

Ideally, investors should wait for clear confirmation of support formation – specifically, the formation of a series of higher lows and increasing buy volume near the $93k threshold or a huge spike in selling volume without a price follow-through.

理想情况下，投资者应等待明确确认支持形成 - 特别是，一系列更高的低点的形成，并增加了93,000美元门槛的买入量，或者在销售销售销售量的销售量巨大而无需以下价格的情况下。

If Bitcoin can’t hold $93,000, it will most likely slide lower to test the next value area between $81k to $88.4k. Here, Bitcoin consolidated throughout March 2025 and early April 2025. This zone could provide exceptional buying opportunities, hinting at a bullish Bitcoin price forecast for those patient enough to wait for them.

如果比特币无法持有$ 93,000，那么测试下一个价值区域的$ 81K至88.4K的测试很可能会降低。在这里，比特币整个2025年3月和2025年4月上旬都合并了。该区域可以提供出色的购买机会，暗示对那些足够多的患者等待他们的看涨比特币价格预测。

Several Critical Flashpoints Ahead Of Tomorrow’s FOMC & Interest Rate Decision

明天的FOMC和利率决定之前的几个关键闪点

As traders prepare for tomorrow’s announcement, several key variables will determine Bitcoin’s next major move:

随着交易者为明天的公告做准备，几个关键变量将决定比特币的下一个主要举措：

To conclude, the convergence of these technical and macroeconomic factors creates a perfect environment for heightened volatility that could potentially propel Bitcoin price higher or lead to steep corrections. Either way, traders need to be prepared for an opportunity.

总而言之，这些技术和宏观经济因素的融合为提高波动率创造了一个理想的环境，可能会推动比特币价格上涨或导致陡峭的校正。无论哪种方式，交易者都需要为机会做好准备。

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

常见问题（常见问题解答）

1. What is the current situation with Bitcoin's price?

1。比特币价格的当前情况如何？

2. What are the expectations for the Fed's interest rate decision?

2。对美联储利率决定的期望是什么？

3. What are the key price levels to watch for Bitcoin?

3。要注意比特币的关键价格水平是多少？