Bitcoin (BTC) clings to $94,350 ahead of tomorrow's high-stakes FOMC meeting

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 98.2% probability of rates remaining unchanged, while technical indicators suggest a potential $100K breakout thesis.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $94,350 as it tries to stay afloat ahead of tomorrow’s high-stakes FOMC meeting.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 98.2% probability of rates remaining unchanged, but traders are bracing for wild price swings as the Fed balances stubborn inflation with White House pressure for rate cuts.

The technical picture also suggests a potential $100K breakout thesis, which could come into play if sellers fail to follow through on recent attempts to push the price lower.

Trump’s Tariffs & Comments Show Increasing Urgency For Rate Cuts

The White House has been increasingly vocal about the need for rate cuts, specifically tying the request to the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy.

However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unconvinced and has stuck to his “wait-and-see” stance, preferring to see clear signs of economic deterioration before making any rash decisions.

“Powell won’t cut rates based on economic forecasts alone. The Fed needs to see actual deterioration in employment data before making its move,” notes a former high-ranking Fed official who worked alongside him.

Despite the tension between political desires and economic reality, the Fed Watch Tool currently shows overwhelming consensus (98.2% probability) that rates will remain unchanged at 425-450 basis points tomorrow. This shows that Powell is ready to wait it out. It also highlights the disconnect between market expectations and political pressures.

On the other hand, stubborn inflation data continues to complicate the Fed’s decision-making process, which will be a key topic to observe in the FOMC meeting on May 7.

The Chart Shows Treasury Buybacks & Rising Probability Of Recession

In a significant yet underreported development, the Fed announced a $5 billion monthly Treasury buyback program that effectively maintains its position as a net buyer. This technical adjustment is helping to cap long-end yields even as short-term rates edge higher, creating a complex yield curve dynamic that Bitcoin traders are still coming to terms with.

The economic outlook remains precarious. Recession probability models now show a 57% chance of economic contraction in 2025 – better than last week’s 63% reading, but still alarmingly high. This uncertainty, coupled with potential tariff impacts from the Trump administration, creates a challenging backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin.

The Final Make-Or-Break Level For Bitcoin

Ideally, investors should wait for clear confirmation of support formation – specifically, the formation of a series of higher lows and increasing buy volume near the $93k threshold or a huge spike in selling volume without a price follow-through.

If Bitcoin can’t hold $93,000, it will most likely slide lower to test the next value area between $81k to $88.4k. Here, Bitcoin consolidated throughout March 2025 and early April 2025. This zone could provide exceptional buying opportunities, hinting at a bullish Bitcoin price forecast for those patient enough to wait for them.

Several Critical Flashpoints Ahead Of Tomorrow’s FOMC & Interest Rate Decision

As traders prepare for tomorrow’s announcement, several key variables will determine Bitcoin’s next major move:

To conclude, the convergence of these technical and macroeconomic factors creates a perfect environment for heightened volatility that could potentially propel Bitcoin price higher or lead to steep corrections. Either way, traders need to be prepared for an opportunity.

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