比特幣（BTC）圖表模式反映了2024年末拉力賽之前從70,000美元到$ 109,000

加密熊可能想密切觀看比特幣（BTC）最近的圖表模式

CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole provides a daily technical analysis of the crypto market.

Coindesk分析師Omkar Godbole提供了對加密市場的每日技術分析。

Crypto bears might want to keep a close eye on bitcoin’s (BTC) recent chart patterns, which show striking similarities to those that preceded the late 2024 rally from $70,000 to $109,000.

加密熊隊可能希望密切關注比特幣（BTC）最近的圖表模式，這表明與2024年後期拉力賽前從70,000美元到109,000美元之前的相似之處相似。

The first pattern to watch is the weekly chart’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, a momentum indicator used to identify trend changes and reversals. MACD crossovers above or below the zero line typically signal bullish or bearish shifts in momentum.

要觀看的第一個模式是每週圖表的移動平均收斂差異（MACD）直方圖，這是用於識別趨勢變化和逆轉的動量指標。 MACD在零線以上或下方的MACD交叉通常在動量中表明看漲或看跌。

However, traders prefer to interpret these signals in the context of price action. A bearish crossover, for example, needs validation through weakening prices; otherwise, it could indicate underlying strength and a bear trap. Currently, that seems to be the case with BTC.

但是，交易者更喜歡在價格行動的背景下解釋這些信號。例如，看跌的交叉需要通過削弱價格來驗證；否則，它可能表明潛在的強度和熊陷阱。目前，BTC似乎就是這種情況。

The cryptocurrency initially fell after the MACD flipped negative in mid-February, but quickly found support at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) in March and has since bounced back above $90k. All the while, the MACD has held below zero.

加密貨幣最初是在2月中旬在MACD翻轉負數之後下降的，但很快在3月的50週簡單移動平均線（SMA）中獲得了支持，此後彈回了9萬美元以上。一直以下，MACD一直保持在零以下。

This pattern is strikingly similar to last August and September, when prices held the SMA support despite persistent bearish MACD signals. The indicator finally flipped bullish around mid-October, confirming the trend with a rally from $70K to $100K by December.

這種模式與去年八月和9月相似，當時價格持續了SMA，儘管看跌了MACD信號。該指標終於在10月中旬左右翻轉看漲，從12月到12月的$ 70K到1萬美元，證實了這一趨勢。

The second pattern to keep an eye on is the 50- and 200-day SMAs. About four weeks ago, these averages formed a bearish crossover—commonly known as the death cross—signaling a potential long-term downtrend. However, this scenario turned out to be a bear trap, as bitcoin found support around $75K and reversed course.

關注的第二種模式是50天和200天的SMA。大約四個星期前，這些平均值形成了看跌的交叉（通常稱為死亡十字架），標誌著潛在的長期下降趨勢。但是，這種情況被證明是一個熊陷阱，因為比特幣在75K $ 75K和逆轉過程中獲得了支持。

Recently, the 50-day SMA has begun to rise again and could soon cross above the 200-day SMA, setting up a bullish golden cross in the coming weeks.

最近，50天的SMA開始再次上升，很快就會超過200天的SMA，在接下來的幾週內建立了一個看漲的金十字。

Again, this pattern closely mirrors last year’s trend: the death cross in August marked a bottom, quickly followed by a golden cross that sparked a breakout above $70K and ultimately led to a rally above $109K to new highs.

同樣，這種模式緊密反映了去年的趨勢：八月的死亡十字架標誌著底部，隨後是一條金十字架，突破了7萬美元以上，並最終導致了一次超過10.9萬美元的集會。

In other words, bullish volatility might be brewing on the horizon, potentially taking bitcoin past the January high of $109K.

換句話說，看漲的波動可能正在醞釀之中，有可能將比特幣超過1.10億美元的高點。

Chart patterns are a common tool for assessing market strength and forecasting future movements. However, it’s crucial to remember that history doesn’t always repeat itself, and macroeconomic factors can quickly swing market directions, rendering chart analysis far from foolproof.

圖表模式是評估市場強度和預測未來運動的常見工具。但是，至關重要的是要記住歷史並不總是重演，宏觀經濟因素可以迅速擺動市場方向，從而使圖表分析遠非萬無一失。