比特币（BTC）图表模式反映了2024年末拉力赛之前从70,000美元到$ 109,000

加密熊可能想密切观看比特币（BTC）最近的图表模式

CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole provides a daily technical analysis of the crypto market.

Coindesk分析师Omkar Godbole提供了对加密市场的每日技术分析。

Crypto bears might want to keep a close eye on bitcoin’s (BTC) recent chart patterns, which show striking similarities to those that preceded the late 2024 rally from $70,000 to $109,000.

加密熊队可能希望密切关注比特币（BTC）最近的图表模式，这表明与2024年后期拉力赛前从70,000美元到109,000美元之前的相似之处相似。

The first pattern to watch is the weekly chart’s Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, a momentum indicator used to identify trend changes and reversals. MACD crossovers above or below the zero line typically signal bullish or bearish shifts in momentum.

要观看的第一个模式是每周图表的移动平均收敛差异（MACD）直方图，这是用于识别趋势变化和逆转的动量指标。 MACD在零线以上或下方的MACD交叉通常在动量中表明看涨或看跌。

However, traders prefer to interpret these signals in the context of price action. A bearish crossover, for example, needs validation through weakening prices; otherwise, it could indicate underlying strength and a bear trap. Currently, that seems to be the case with BTC.

但是，交易者更喜欢在价格行动的背景下解释这些信号。例如，看跌的交叉需要通过削弱价格来验证；否则，它可能表明潜在的强度和熊陷阱。目前，BTC似乎就是这种情况。

The cryptocurrency initially fell after the MACD flipped negative in mid-February, but quickly found support at the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) in March and has since bounced back above $90k. All the while, the MACD has held below zero.

加密货币最初是在2月中旬在MACD翻转负数之后下降的，但很快在3月的50周简单移动平均线（SMA）中获得了支持，此后弹回了9万美元以上。一直以下，MACD一直保持在零以下。

This pattern is strikingly similar to last August and September, when prices held the SMA support despite persistent bearish MACD signals. The indicator finally flipped bullish around mid-October, confirming the trend with a rally from $70K to $100K by December.

这种模式与去年八月和9月相似，当时价格持续了SMA，尽管看跌了MACD信号。该指标终于在10月中旬左右翻转看涨，从12月到12月的$ 70K到1万美元，证实了这一趋势。

The second pattern to keep an eye on is the 50- and 200-day SMAs. About four weeks ago, these averages formed a bearish crossover—commonly known as the death cross—signaling a potential long-term downtrend. However, this scenario turned out to be a bear trap, as bitcoin found support around $75K and reversed course.

关注的第二种模式是50天和200天的SMA。大约四个星期前，这些平均值形成了看跌的交叉（通常称为死亡十字架），标志着潜在的长期下降趋势。但是，这种情况被证明是一个熊陷阱，因为比特币在75K $ 75K和逆转过程中获得了支持。

Recently, the 50-day SMA has begun to rise again and could soon cross above the 200-day SMA, setting up a bullish golden cross in the coming weeks.

最近，50天的SMA开始再次上升，很快就会超过200天的SMA，在接下来的几周内建立了一个看涨的金十字。

Again, this pattern closely mirrors last year’s trend: the death cross in August marked a bottom, quickly followed by a golden cross that sparked a breakout above $70K and ultimately led to a rally above $109K to new highs.

同样，这种模式紧密反映了去年的趋势：八月的死亡十字架标志着底部，随后是一条金十字架，突破了7万美元以上，并最终导致了一次超过10.9万美元的集会。

In other words, bullish volatility might be brewing on the horizon, potentially taking bitcoin past the January high of $109K.

换句话说，看涨的波动可能正在酝酿之中，有可能将比特币超过1.10亿美元的高点。

Chart patterns are a common tool for assessing market strength and forecasting future movements. However, it’s crucial to remember that history doesn’t always repeat itself, and macroeconomic factors can quickly swing market directions, rendering chart analysis far from foolproof.

图表模式是评估市场强度和预测未来运动的常见工具。但是，至关重要的是要记住历史并不总是重演，宏观经济因素可以迅速摆动市场方向，从而使图表分析远非万无一失。