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比特幣(BTC)接近其最大的每月期權到期2025年,總曝光率達到138億美元。這項活動使公牛隊有機會確保比特幣的價格超過$ 110,000。
Bitcoin (BTC) price is approaching its biggest monthly options expiry of 2025 on 30 May, with an estimated $13.8 billion in exposure at the moment.
比特幣(BTC)的價格將在5月30日的2025年每月最大的期權到期,目前估計接觸約138億美元。
This event gives Bitcoin bulls a chance to capitalize on $4.8 billion in call (buy) options at maturity, while putting a large portion of the $6.5 billion in put (sell) options out of the money.
這項活動使比特幣公牛有機會在成熟度中利用48億美元的撥打(買入)期權,同時將65億美元的看跌期權(出售)期權中的很大一部分從資金中丟棄。
Bitcoin price has rallied by 25% over the past 30 days, catching bears optimistic of lower prices at triple-digit strikes. But the majority of put positions are set below $109,000, while 95% of put orders are at prices lower than $109,000.
在過去的30天中,比特幣的價格上漲了25%,在三位數罷工時捕獲了較低的價格的熊。但是,大多數職位職位的設定低於109,000美元,而95%的看訂單的價格低於109,000美元。
If Bitcoin’s price holds near current levels, less than $350 million worth of put options will remain relevant at expiry.
如果比特幣的價格接近目前的水平,那麼在到期時,價值不到3.5億美元的看跌期權將保持相關性。
Conversely, the total open interest in call options up to $109,000 is $3.8 billion. But this imbalance does not necessarily mean every call option holder was betting on Bitcoin’s rise.
相反,最高10.9,000美元的通話期權開放息息股票為38億美元。但是,這種不平衡並不一定意味著每個呼叫選項持有人都在押注比特幣的崛起。
Some traders may have sold these options as a way to hedge their exposure above certain price levels. Among the most significant option strategies traded at Deribit in the past two weeks is the “short call.”
一些交易者可能已經出售了這些選擇,以對沖其高於一定價格水平的曝光率。過去兩個星期在Deribit交易的最重要的期權策略之一是“簡短電話”。
This strategy is often used by investors who are seeking a fixed-income return, which will be paid out as long as Bitcoin’s price stays above a particular threshold at maturity.
尋求固定收益回報的投資者通常會使用此策略,只要比特幣的價格停留在成熟時的特定門檻之上,就可以支付。
Similarly, the “bull call spread” is another popular strategy that is designed to capitalize on an anticipated move higher in Bitcoin’s price, while also hedging against some of the downside risk.
同樣,“公牛呼叫點差”是另一種流行的策略,旨在利用比特幣價格更高的預期動作,同時也對沖一些下行風險。
This strategy involves buying one call option at a lower strike price and selling another call option at a higher strike price. For example, an investor might buy one Bitcoin May 30th $105,000 call and sell one Bitcoin May 30th $110,000 call.
該策略涉及以較低的打擊價格購買一個呼叫選項,並以更高的打擊價格出售另一個呼叫選項。例如,投資者可能會在5月30日購買一個比特幣105,000美元的電話,並在5月30日出售一個比特幣,$ 110,000電話。
Strong Bitcoin ETF inflows decrease chances of further price decline
強大的比特幣ETF流入減少了進一步下降的機會
If Bitcoin manages to maintain the $109,000 level, most bullish strategies should be generating positive returns by the May options expiry.
如果比特幣設法維持109,000美元的水平,那麼大多數看漲策略應在5月期權到期之前產生正回報。
However, as the expiry date draws nearer, it is likely that bears will try to influence BTC futures markets in an attempt to limit their losses.
但是,隨著到期日期的臨近,熊很可能會試圖影響BTC期貨市場,以限制其損失。
The total open interest in Bitcoin futures is currently $79 billion, with a slight preference for short (sell) positions, indicating stronger demand for this type of position. However, this strategy could backfire if Bitcoin manages to rally above $110,000.
當前,比特幣期貨的全部開放利息為790億美元,對短(賣出)頭寸略有偏愛,表明對這類頭寸的需求更強勁。但是,如果比特幣設法集會超過110,000美元,則這種策略可能適得其反。
In this scenario, bears would be forced to close their positions, which could accelerate Bitcoin’s price gains even further.
在這種情況下,熊將被迫關閉其頭寸,這可能會進一步加速比特幣的價格上漲。
Net inflows of $1.9 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between May 20 and May 22 highlight the strength of demand above $105,000.
5月20日至5月22日之間,美國現貨比特幣交易所貿易資金(ETF)的淨流入淨額為105,000美元以上。
Ultimately, the main hope for bears rests on a weaker macroeconomic environment, which could increase risk aversion among investors and decrease demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
最終,熊的主要希望基於較弱的宏觀經濟環境,這可能會增加投資者之間的風險規避,並減少對比特幣等加密貨幣的需求。
Bitcoin bulls aim for $110,000 by 30 May
到5月30日,比特幣公牛的目標是110,000美元
Here are four possible scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances and do not account for complex strategies.
這是基於當前價格趨勢的四種可能的情況。這些結果基於開放的利益失衡來估計理論利潤,並且不考慮複雜的策略。
Between $102k and $105k: $2.75 billion in calls (buy) vs. $900 million in puts (sell). The net result favors the call instruments by $1.85 billion.
介於$ 10.2億美元至$ 10.5萬美元之間:27.5億美元的電話(買入)與9億美元的看跌期權(賣出)。淨結果有利於呼叫工具的18.5億美元。
Between $105k and $107k: $3.3 billion calls vs. $650 million puts, favoring calls by $2.65 billion.
介於10.5萬美元至1萬美元之間:33億美元的電話與6.5億美元的投票權,有利於26.5億美元的電話。
Between $107k and $110k: $3.7 billion calls vs. $350 million puts, favoring calls by $3.35 billion.
介於1萬至11萬美元之間:37億美元的電話與3.5億美元的投票權,有利於33.5億美元的電話。
Between $110k and $114k: $4.8 billion calls vs. $120 million puts, favoring calls by $4.7 billion.
介於11萬美元至11.4萬美元之間:48億美元的電話與1.2億美元的投票權,有利於47億美元的電話。
The bulls can maximize their gains by pushing BTC/USD above $110,000, which could help set a new all-time high. But the continuation of the bullish momentum will depend on developments in the ongoing tariff war, a factor that has been a key focus in recent weeks.
公牛可以通過將BTC/USD提高到110,000美元以上,從而最大限度地提高收益,這可以幫助創造新的歷史最高成績。但是,看漲勢頭的延續將取決於正在進行的關稅戰爭中的發展,這是最近幾週的重點。
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