Bitcoin (BTC) Bulls Aim to Push BTC Above $110,000 by May 30 to Capitalize on $4.8B in Call Options

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its largest monthly options expiry of 2025, with total exposure reaching $13.8 billion. This event gives bulls a chance to secure Bitcoin's price above $110,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is approaching its biggest monthly options expiry of 2025 on 30 May, with an estimated $13.8 billion in exposure at the moment.

This event gives Bitcoin bulls a chance to capitalize on $4.8 billion in call (buy) options at maturity, while putting a large portion of the $6.5 billion in put (sell) options out of the money.

Bitcoin price has rallied by 25% over the past 30 days, catching bears optimistic of lower prices at triple-digit strikes. But the majority of put positions are set below $109,000, while 95% of put orders are at prices lower than $109,000.

If Bitcoin’s price holds near current levels, less than $350 million worth of put options will remain relevant at expiry.

Conversely, the total open interest in call options up to $109,000 is $3.8 billion. But this imbalance does not necessarily mean every call option holder was betting on Bitcoin’s rise.

Some traders may have sold these options as a way to hedge their exposure above certain price levels. Among the most significant option strategies traded at Deribit in the past two weeks is the “short call.”

This strategy is often used by investors who are seeking a fixed-income return, which will be paid out as long as Bitcoin’s price stays above a particular threshold at maturity.

Similarly, the “bull call spread” is another popular strategy that is designed to capitalize on an anticipated move higher in Bitcoin’s price, while also hedging against some of the downside risk.

This strategy involves buying one call option at a lower strike price and selling another call option at a higher strike price. For example, an investor might buy one Bitcoin May 30th $105,000 call and sell one Bitcoin May 30th $110,000 call.

Strong Bitcoin ETF inflows decrease chances of further price decline

If Bitcoin manages to maintain the $109,000 level, most bullish strategies should be generating positive returns by the May options expiry.

However, as the expiry date draws nearer, it is likely that bears will try to influence BTC futures markets in an attempt to limit their losses.

The total open interest in Bitcoin futures is currently $79 billion, with a slight preference for short (sell) positions, indicating stronger demand for this type of position. However, this strategy could backfire if Bitcoin manages to rally above $110,000.

In this scenario, bears would be forced to close their positions, which could accelerate Bitcoin’s price gains even further.

Net inflows of $1.9 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between May 20 and May 22 highlight the strength of demand above $105,000.

Ultimately, the main hope for bears rests on a weaker macroeconomic environment, which could increase risk aversion among investors and decrease demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin bulls aim for $110,000 by 30 May

Here are four possible scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances and do not account for complex strategies.

Between $102k and $105k: $2.75 billion in calls (buy) vs. $900 million in puts (sell). The net result favors the call instruments by $1.85 billion.

Between $105k and $107k: $3.3 billion calls vs. $650 million puts, favoring calls by $2.65 billion.

Between $107k and $110k: $3.7 billion calls vs. $350 million puts, favoring calls by $3.35 billion.

Between $110k and $114k: $4.8 billion calls vs. $120 million puts, favoring calls by $4.7 billion.

The bulls can maximize their gains by pushing BTC/USD above $110,000, which could help set a new all-time high. But the continuation of the bullish momentum will depend on developments in the ongoing tariff war, a factor that has been a key focus in recent weeks.