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比特币(BTC)接近其最大的每月期权到期2025年,总曝光率达到138亿美元。这项活动使公牛队有机会确保比特币的价格超过$ 110,000。
Bitcoin (BTC) price is approaching its biggest monthly options expiry of 2025 on 30 May, with an estimated $13.8 billion in exposure at the moment.
比特币(BTC)的价格将在5月30日的2025年每月最大的期权到期,目前估计接触约138亿美元。
This event gives Bitcoin bulls a chance to capitalize on $4.8 billion in call (buy) options at maturity, while putting a large portion of the $6.5 billion in put (sell) options out of the money.
这项活动使比特币公牛有机会在成熟度中利用48亿美元的拨打(买入)期权,同时将65亿美元的看跌期权(出售)期权中的很大一部分从资金中丢弃。
Bitcoin price has rallied by 25% over the past 30 days, catching bears optimistic of lower prices at triple-digit strikes. But the majority of put positions are set below $109,000, while 95% of put orders are at prices lower than $109,000.
在过去的30天中,比特币的价格上涨了25%,在三位数罢工时捕获了较低的价格的熊。但是,大多数职位职位的设定低于109,000美元,而95%的看订单的价格低于109,000美元。
If Bitcoin’s price holds near current levels, less than $350 million worth of put options will remain relevant at expiry.
如果比特币的价格接近目前的水平,那么在到期时,价值不到3.5亿美元的看跌期权将保持相关性。
Conversely, the total open interest in call options up to $109,000 is $3.8 billion. But this imbalance does not necessarily mean every call option holder was betting on Bitcoin’s rise.
相反,最高10.9,000美元的通话期权开放息息股票为38亿美元。但是,这种不平衡并不一定意味着每个呼叫选项持有人都在押注比特币的崛起。
Some traders may have sold these options as a way to hedge their exposure above certain price levels. Among the most significant option strategies traded at Deribit in the past two weeks is the “short call.”
一些交易者可能已经出售了这些选择,以对冲其高于一定价格水平的曝光率。过去两个星期在Deribit交易的最重要的期权策略之一是“简短电话”。
This strategy is often used by investors who are seeking a fixed-income return, which will be paid out as long as Bitcoin’s price stays above a particular threshold at maturity.
寻求固定收益回报的投资者通常会使用此策略,只要比特币的价格停留在成熟时的特定门槛之上,就可以支付。
Similarly, the “bull call spread” is another popular strategy that is designed to capitalize on an anticipated move higher in Bitcoin’s price, while also hedging against some of the downside risk.
同样,“公牛呼叫点差”是另一种流行的策略,旨在利用比特币价格更高的预期动作,同时也对冲一些下行风险。
This strategy involves buying one call option at a lower strike price and selling another call option at a higher strike price. For example, an investor might buy one Bitcoin May 30th $105,000 call and sell one Bitcoin May 30th $110,000 call.
该策略涉及以较低的打击价格购买一个呼叫选项,并以更高的打击价格出售另一个呼叫选项。例如,投资者可能会在5月30日购买一个比特币105,000美元的电话,并在5月30日出售一个比特币,$ 110,000电话。
Strong Bitcoin ETF inflows decrease chances of further price decline
强大的比特币ETF流入减少了进一步下降的机会
If Bitcoin manages to maintain the $109,000 level, most bullish strategies should be generating positive returns by the May options expiry.
如果比特币设法维持109,000美元的水平,那么大多数看涨策略应在5月期权到期之前产生正回报。
However, as the expiry date draws nearer, it is likely that bears will try to influence BTC futures markets in an attempt to limit their losses.
但是,随着到期日期的临近,熊很可能会试图影响BTC期货市场,以限制其损失。
The total open interest in Bitcoin futures is currently $79 billion, with a slight preference for short (sell) positions, indicating stronger demand for this type of position. However, this strategy could backfire if Bitcoin manages to rally above $110,000.
当前,比特币期货的全部开放利息为790亿美元,对短(卖出)头寸略有偏爱,表明对这类头寸的需求更强劲。但是,如果比特币设法集会超过110,000美元,则这种策略可能适得其反。
In this scenario, bears would be forced to close their positions, which could accelerate Bitcoin’s price gains even further.
在这种情况下,熊将被迫关闭其头寸,这可能会进一步加速比特币的价格上涨。
Net inflows of $1.9 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between May 20 and May 22 highlight the strength of demand above $105,000.
5月20日至5月22日之间,美国现货比特币交易所贸易资金(ETF)的净流入净额为105,000美元以上。
Ultimately, the main hope for bears rests on a weaker macroeconomic environment, which could increase risk aversion among investors and decrease demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
最终,熊的主要希望基于较弱的宏观经济环境,这可能会增加投资者之间的风险规避,并减少对比特币等加密货币的需求。
Bitcoin bulls aim for $110,000 by 30 May
到5月30日,比特币公牛的目标是110,000美元
Here are four possible scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances and do not account for complex strategies.
这是基于当前价格趋势的四种可能的情况。这些结果基于开放的利益失衡来估计理论利润,并且不考虑复杂的策略。
Between $102k and $105k: $2.75 billion in calls (buy) vs. $900 million in puts (sell). The net result favors the call instruments by $1.85 billion.
介于$ 10.2亿美元至$ 10.5万美元之间:27.5亿美元的电话(买入)与9亿美元的看跌期权(卖出)。净结果有利于呼叫工具的18.5亿美元。
Between $105k and $107k: $3.3 billion calls vs. $650 million puts, favoring calls by $2.65 billion.
介于10.5万美元至1万美元之间:33亿美元的电话与6.5亿美元的投票权,有利于26.5亿美元的电话。
Between $107k and $110k: $3.7 billion calls vs. $350 million puts, favoring calls by $3.35 billion.
介于1万至11万美元之间:37亿美元的电话与3.5亿美元的投票权,有利于33.5亿美元的电话。
Between $110k and $114k: $4.8 billion calls vs. $120 million puts, favoring calls by $4.7 billion.
介于11万美元至11.4万美元之间:48亿美元的电话与1.2亿美元的投票权,有利于47亿美元的电话。
The bulls can maximize their gains by pushing BTC/USD above $110,000, which could help set a new all-time high. But the continuation of the bullish momentum will depend on developments in the ongoing tariff war, a factor that has been a key focus in recent weeks.
公牛可以通过将BTC/USD提高到110,000美元以上,从而最大限度地提高收益,这可以帮助创造新的历史最高成绩。但是,看涨势头的延续将取决于正在进行的关税战争中的发展,这是最近几周的重点。
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