比特幣打破了抵抗 - 但這是可持續的嗎？

比特幣已經以強勁的激增開始了，幾個月來首次超過了97,000美元的成績。

Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off May with a powerful surge, breaking past the $97,000 mark for the first time in months. This move above a critical resistance level has reignited bullish sentiment in the crypto market, as many wonder if the world’s largest cryptocurrency is now headed toward a six-figure valuation.

比特幣（BTC）以強勁的激增啟動，超過了幾個月來首次超過97,000美元的成績。這一舉動超過了臨界的抵抗水平，在加密市場上重新點燃了看漲的情緒，許多人想知道世界上最大的加密貨幣是否現在正朝著六位數的估值邁進。

But despite the excitement, the road ahead for BTC remains uncertain. According to recent on-chain analysis, Bitcoin now stands at a crucial turning point, with three possible paths unfolding from here: a full-scale bull rally, a stable consolidation, or a mild correction.

但是儘管令人興奮，但BTC的前進道路仍然不確定。根據最近的鏈分析，比特幣現在處於關鍵的轉折點，從這裡開始有三個可能的路徑：全面的公牛集會，穩定的鞏固或輕度的校正。

Bitcoin Breaks Resistance — But Is It Sustainable?

比特幣打破了抵抗 - 但這是可持續的嗎？

Bitcoin closed at $97,406 on Monday, May 1, overcoming a level it had failed to maintain since late February. This breakout has placed BTC above the short-term holder (STH) realized price, currently at $93,342. That metric represents the average on-chain acquisition cost for coins held for less than 155 days, and now it acts as a strong support floor for Bitcoin.

5月1日星期一，比特幣收於97,406美元，自2月下旬以來一直無法維持的水平。該突破使BTC超過了短期持有人（STH）實現的價格，目前為93,342美元。該度量標準代表了持有不到155天的硬幣的平均鏈上採集成本，現在它是比特幣的強大支撐層。

This shift also flipped many recent buyers into an unrealized profit position, reducing selling pressure and supporting the bullish thesis. However, traders are wary of assuming a straight path to all-time highs. The market is still navigating volatility, and BTC’s next move hinges on a key metric — its momentum ratio.

這一轉變還將許多最近的買家轉變為未實現的利潤地位，減少了銷售壓力並支持看漲論文。但是，交易者對假設有史以來高高的途徑保持警惕。市場仍在導航波動率，而BTC的下一步行動取決於關鍵指標 - 動量比率。

Three Potential Scenarios For Bitcoin’s Next Move

比特幣下一步的三種潛在方案

Crypto analyst Axel Adler, using data from CryptoQuant, highlighted Bitcoin’s momentum ratio as a key signal. As of Monday, BTC’s momentum ratio sat around 0.8, placing it in what Adler calls the “start” of a rally phase. The direction Bitcoin takes next depends heavily on whether this ratio rises or falls.

加密分析師Axel Adler，使用來自加密量的數據，強調了比特幣的動量比例作為關鍵信號。截至週一，BTC的動量比率約為0.8，將其放在阿德勒所說的拉力賽階段的“開始”中。方向比特幣接下來取決於該比率是上升還是下降。

If Bitcoin’s momentum ratio breaks above 1.0 and manages to sustain itself at that level, it would indicate renewed strength and buying pressure. This scenario would also be supported by other indicators like the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) moving into bullish territory.

如果比特幣的勢頭比率超過1.0並設法維持該水平，則表明強度和購買壓力會增加。這種情況也將得到其他指標（例如實現價值（MVRV）的市場價值（MVRV）和未實現的盈利/損失（NUPL）遷移到看漲領域的其他指標。

Under such conditions, Bitcoin could continue its ascent, potentially aiming for the $150,000 to $175,000 range. This type of move would be in line with Bitcoin’s previous explosive rallies in 2017 and 2021, where it experienced significant price surges over short periods.

在這種情況下，比特幣可以繼續其上升，可能以150,000美元至175,000美元的範圍。這種類型的舉動將與比特幣在2017年和2021年以前的爆炸性集會一致，在短時間內，它經歷了巨大的價格飆升。

However, it’s important to note that the MVRV currently stands at 2.16, which is still quite a distance from the historical top zone, which typically occurs around 3.9. Similarly, the NUPL is at 0.54, which suggests the market is in an early optimism phase rather than euphoria. These readings indicate that there might be room for further upside before Bitcoin becomes overvalued.

但是，重要的是要注意，MVRV目前為2.16，距離歷史頂部區域仍然很遠，通常發生在3.9左右。同樣，NUPL為0.54，這表明市場處於早期樂觀階段，而不是欣快感。這些讀數表明，在比特幣被高估之前，可能會有進一步的上升空間。

If, on the other hand, the momentum ratio remains between 0.8 and 1.0, we might see Bitcoin trading more sideways in a wide band between $90,000 and $110,000. This scenario implies a period of base-building, where investors hold their positions but might not be actively making new purchases. We could also expect to see less volatility as the market waits for a new catalyst.

另一方面，如果動量比率保持在0.8到1.0之間，我們可能會看到比特幣在寬帶範圍內的側面交易更多，在$ 90,000至110,000美元之間。這種情況意味著一段基礎建設時期，投資者擔任其職位，但可能不會積極進行新的購買。當市場等待新的催化劑時，我們也可以期望看到波動率更少。

This outcome is considered more likely if the current levels of buying pressure begin to decrease but do not reverse drastically.

如果目前的購買壓力水平開始降低，但不會急劇逆轉，則認為這種結果更有可能。

Finally, if the momentum ratio drops below 0.75, we might see a bearish outcome unfolding. In this case, short-term holders could be induced to cash out in greater numbers, ultimately triggering a correction that could return Bitcoin to the $70,000–$85,000 range.

最後，如果動量比率下降到0.75以下，我們可能會看到看跌的結果正在發展。在這種情況下，可能會誘使短期持有人以更多的數量兌現，最終觸發更正，該更正可能使比特幣恢復到70,000- $ 85,000的範圍。

Many analysts believe this scenario is less likely, given that Bitcoin already experienced a correction in April, which helped reset key indicators and flush out weaker hands.

許多分析師認為，考慮到比特幣已經在4月進行了更正，這有助於重置關鍵指標並衝出弱手，因此這種情況不太可能。

While no one can predict the future with certainty, the current market conditions seem to favor either a continuation of the bullish trend or a consolidation phase. Indicators like the NUPL and MVRV are still showing moderate levels, and with BTC now sitting above the STH realized price, investor sentiment appears to be cautiously optimistic.

儘管沒有人能確定地預測未來，但當前的市場狀況似乎有利於看漲趨勢的延續或合併階段。 NUPL和MVRV等指標仍顯示出中等水平，並且隨著BTC現在超過STH實現的價格，投資者的情緒似乎是謹慎樂觀的。

For now, Bitcoin stands at a crucial juncture, and its next move will be decisive. Whether it soars toward new highs, stabilizes in a holding pattern, or experiences another pullback will depend on how momentum and buyer behavior evolve in the days to come.

就目前而言，比特幣處於關鍵時刻，其下一步行動將是決定性的。無論是向新的高點飆升，以保持模式穩定，還是經歷其他回調將取決於未來幾天的動力和買方行為的發展。