比特幣等待FOMC裁決，邊緣的加密市場

比特幣（BTC）和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場等待週三的FOMC（聯邦公開市場委員會）會議和隨後的杰羅姆·鮑威爾新聞發布會。

Crypto traders are largely anticipating the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25% – 4.5% on Wednesday.

加密交易者在很大程度上預計美國美聯儲（美聯儲）將利率保持在周三的4.25％至4.5％。

According to data on the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants assign a 95.6% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at 4.25% – 4.5%.

根據CME FedWatch工具的數據，市場參與者分配了95.6％的概率，即美聯儲將利率穩定為4.25％ - 4.5％。

However, with this largely priced in, attention is now on the tone and guidance that Chair Jerome Powell provides at the subsequent press conference.

但是，隨著這一價格的價格，現在註意到杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）在隨後的新聞發布會上提供的語調和指導。

“If they do 3.5% [now 4.4%] they will have an insane positive reaction,” stated Bitcoinensus.

比特幣說：“如果他們做3.5％[現在4.4％]，他們將產生瘋狂的積極反應。”

Despite the high probability of the Fed keeping interest rates steady, traders are preparing for plenty of volatility. They had adopted a risk-off stance, with Bitcoin (BTC) price consolidating in the $94,000 range.

儘管美聯儲保持利率穩定，但交易者仍在準備大量波動。他們採取了冒險立場，比特幣（BTC）價格合併在94,000美元之間。

Similarly, ETF (exchange-traded fund) inflows are slowing, alongside rising liquidations. Swissblock analysts described the atmosphere as a “battle” of resistance. They cite negative funding rates and high open interest, suggesting bears are intensifying short positions.

同樣，ETF（交易所交易基金）的流入也隨著清算的上升而放緩。 Swissblock分析師將氣氛描述為抵抗的“戰鬥”。他們引用了負面的資金率和較高的開放興趣，這表明熊正在加強短職位。

“The $97,000–$98,500 range is key. Momentum could trigger short liquidations, pushing BTC up. But beware: a bear trap might flip into a bull trap if conviction fades,” Swissblock warned.

Swissblock警告說：“ $ 97,000– $ 98,500的範圍是關鍵。動量可能會觸發短暫的清算，將BTC推動。但是要當心：如果信念逐漸消失，熊陷阱可能會翻到牛陷阱中。”

This week’s FOMC meeting is pivotal for risk assets. Historical data shows that three of the last five FOMC decisions led to bullish outcomes for Bitcoin. But this one comes amid heightened uncertainty.

本週的FOMC會議對於風險資產至關重要。歷史數據表明，最近五個FOMC的決策中有三個導致了比特幣的看漲結果。但是，這是由於不確定性而增加。

The market is still digesting softer GDP prints, ongoing trade war tensions, and inflation worries, especially with Trump’s tariff rhetoric, which has clouded rate-cut expectations for June.

該市場仍在消化柔和的GDP印刷品，持續的貿易戰緊張局勢和通貨膨脹的煩惱，尤其是特朗普的關稅言論，這使人們對6月的稅率削減了預期。

“This Wednesday’s May FOMC meeting will result in an interest rate hold but also June expectations have flipped to a hold,” Veteran trader Mathew Dixon noted.

資深商人馬修·迪克森（Mathew Dixon）指出：“本週三的5月FOMC會議將導致利率持有，但六月的期望也已持有。”

Powell’s Words May Trigger Bitcoin Breakout—or Breakdown

鮑威爾的話可能會觸發比特幣的突破 - 或分解

Such ambiguity is feeding the market’s anxiety. In December 2023, Powell’s hawkish pivot sparked a “bloodbath” across risk markets, and some traders now fear a repeat.

這種歧義正在助長市場的焦慮。 2023年12月，鮑威爾的鷹派樞軸在風險市場上引起了“血腥”，一些交易者現在擔心重複。

“Bull markets don’t die of old age—they’re murdered by the Fed. If Powell’s tone echoes December’s bloodbath or ignores negative GDP, markets may repeat the same violent flush… It’s a drunken game of darts for Wall Street analysts,” said trader Jim.

“牛市不會死於老年 - 他們被美聯儲謀殺。如果鮑威爾的語氣迴盪了12月的血腥或忽略負面的GDP，那麼市場可能會重複相同的暴力衝突……這是華爾街分析師的醉酒遊戲，” Trader Jim說。

Meanwhile, analysts like Michaël van de Poppe see gold’s recent rally as a sign of prevailing caution.

同時，像MichaëlVande Poppe這樣的分析師將Gold最近的集會視為謹慎的跡象。

“We’re still seeing the risk-off mentality going into the Fed meeting…Bitcoin build-up is good…expecting to see ETH turn upwards after Wednesday,” he said.

他說：“我們仍然看到進入美聯儲會議的冒險心態……比特幣的積累很好……期望在星期三之後看到ETH上升。”

Another analyst, Crypto Seth, observed growing degen activity as Bitcoin price forms a local bottom around $94,000.

另一位分析師Crypto Seth觀察到了Degen活動的增長，因為比特幣價格構成了94,000美元左右的本地底部。

“Degens are building up positions anticipating a move. Market makers might just wick down and grab the longs before up… Bitcoin might be choppy before the FOMC,” he stated.

他說：“ Degens正在建立預計行動的位置。做市商可能只是Wick倒下並抓住渴望的渴望……比特幣在FOMC之前可能會變得波動。”

The broader macro backdrop is equally murky. Analysts point to the unresolved US-China trade tensions and their impact on consumption, labor markets, and ultimately, political outcomes.

更廣泛的宏觀背景同樣模糊。分析師指出，未解決的美國 - 中國貿易緊張局勢及其對消費，勞動力市場以及最終政治成果的影響。

“Uncertainty is now a liability for Trump, not a negotiation tool,” they argued.

他們認為：“不確定性現在是特朗普的責任，而不是談判工具。”

Despite the swirling fears, a breakout remains on the table. Bulls could get the green light if Jerome Powell strikes a more dovish tone or hints at cuts later this year. According to BitMEX co-founder and former CEO, Arthur Hayes, the Fed switching to quantitative easing (QE) could see Bitcoin price go parabolic.

儘管擔心盤旋，但仍在桌上突破。如果杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）在今年晚些時候提出了更虔誠的語氣或暗示削減的暗示，則公牛可能會獲得綠燈。根據Bitmex聯合創始人兼前首席執行官Arthur Hayes的說法，改用定量寬鬆（QE）的美聯儲可能會看到比特幣的價格寄生蟲。

However, Bitcoin could revisit recent lows in a sharp unwind if the Fed doubles down on hawkishness. Ahead of the Wednesday FOMC meeting, the market is walking a tightrope, and all eyes are on Powell to decide which way it tips.

但是，如果美聯儲翻了一番，比特幣可以重新審視最近的低點。在FOMC會議之前，市場正在走鋼絲，所有人都注視著鮑威爾（Powell）決定其提示的方式。

BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin was trading for $94,474 as of this writing, down by 0.16% in the last 24 hours.

Beincrypto數據顯示，截至撰寫本文時，比特幣的交易價格為94,474美元，在過去的24小時內下降了0.16％。