比特币打破了抵抗 - 但这是可持续的吗？

比特币已经以强劲的激增开始了，几个月来首次超过了97,000美元的成绩。

Bitcoin (BTC) kicked off May with a powerful surge, breaking past the $97,000 mark for the first time in months. This move above a critical resistance level has reignited bullish sentiment in the crypto market, as many wonder if the world’s largest cryptocurrency is now headed toward a six-figure valuation.

比特币（BTC）以强劲的激增启动，超过了几个月来首次超过97,000美元的成绩。这一举动超过了临界的抵抗水平，在加密市场上重新点燃了看涨的情绪，许多人想知道世界上最大的加密货币是否现在正朝着六位数的估值迈进。

But despite the excitement, the road ahead for BTC remains uncertain. According to recent on-chain analysis, Bitcoin now stands at a crucial turning point, with three possible paths unfolding from here: a full-scale bull rally, a stable consolidation, or a mild correction.

但是尽管令人兴奋，但BTC的前进道路仍然不确定。根据最近的链分析，比特币现在处于关键的转折点，从这里开始有三个可能的路径：全面的公牛集会，稳定的巩固或轻度的校正。

Bitcoin Breaks Resistance — But Is It Sustainable?

比特币打破了抵抗 - 但这是可持续的吗？

Bitcoin closed at $97,406 on Monday, May 1, overcoming a level it had failed to maintain since late February. This breakout has placed BTC above the short-term holder (STH) realized price, currently at $93,342. That metric represents the average on-chain acquisition cost for coins held for less than 155 days, and now it acts as a strong support floor for Bitcoin.

5月1日星期一，比特币收于97,406美元，自2月下旬以来一直无法维持的水平。该突破使BTC超过了短期持有人（STH）实现的价格，目前为93,342美元。该度量标准代表了持有不到155天的硬币的平均链上采集成本，现在它是比特币的强大支撑层。

This shift also flipped many recent buyers into an unrealized profit position, reducing selling pressure and supporting the bullish thesis. However, traders are wary of assuming a straight path to all-time highs. The market is still navigating volatility, and BTC’s next move hinges on a key metric — its momentum ratio.

这一转变还将许多最近的买家转变为未实现的利润地位，减少了销售压力并支持看涨论文。但是，交易者对假设有史以来高高的途径保持警惕。市场仍在导航波动率，而BTC的下一步行动取决于关键指标 - 动量比率。

Three Potential Scenarios For Bitcoin’s Next Move

比特币下一步的三种潜在方案

Crypto analyst Axel Adler, using data from CryptoQuant, highlighted Bitcoin’s momentum ratio as a key signal. As of Monday, BTC’s momentum ratio sat around 0.8, placing it in what Adler calls the “start” of a rally phase. The direction Bitcoin takes next depends heavily on whether this ratio rises or falls.

加密分析师Axel Adler，使用来自加密量的数据，强调了比特币的动量比例作为关键信号。截至周一，BTC的动量比率约为0.8，将其放在阿德勒所说的拉力赛阶段的“开始”中。方向比特币接下来取决于该比率是上升还是下降。

If Bitcoin’s momentum ratio breaks above 1.0 and manages to sustain itself at that level, it would indicate renewed strength and buying pressure. This scenario would also be supported by other indicators like the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) moving into bullish territory.

如果比特币的势头比率超过1.0并设法维持该水平，则表明强度和购买压力会增加。这种情况也将得到其他指标（例如实现价值（MVRV）的市场价值（MVRV）和未实现的盈利/损失（NUPL）迁移到看涨领域的其他指标。

Under such conditions, Bitcoin could continue its ascent, potentially aiming for the $150,000 to $175,000 range. This type of move would be in line with Bitcoin’s previous explosive rallies in 2017 and 2021, where it experienced significant price surges over short periods.

在这种情况下，比特币可以继续其上升，可能以150,000美元至175,000美元的范围。这种类型的举动将与比特币在2017年和2021年以前的爆炸性集会一致，在短时间内，它经历了巨大的价格飙升。

However, it’s important to note that the MVRV currently stands at 2.16, which is still quite a distance from the historical top zone, which typically occurs around 3.9. Similarly, the NUPL is at 0.54, which suggests the market is in an early optimism phase rather than euphoria. These readings indicate that there might be room for further upside before Bitcoin becomes overvalued.

但是，重要的是要注意，MVRV目前为2.16，距离历史顶部区域仍然很远，通常发生在3.9左右。同样，NUPL为0.54，这表明市场处于早期乐观阶段，而不是欣快感。这些读数表明，在比特币被高估之前，可能会有进一步的上升空间。

If, on the other hand, the momentum ratio remains between 0.8 and 1.0, we might see Bitcoin trading more sideways in a wide band between $90,000 and $110,000. This scenario implies a period of base-building, where investors hold their positions but might not be actively making new purchases. We could also expect to see less volatility as the market waits for a new catalyst.

另一方面，如果动量比率保持在0.8到1.0之间，我们可能会看到比特币在宽带范围内的侧面交易更多，在$ 90,000至110,000美元之间。这种情况意味着一段基础建设时期，投资者担任其职位，但可能不会积极进行新的购买。当市场等待新的催化剂时，我们也可以期望看到波动率更少。

This outcome is considered more likely if the current levels of buying pressure begin to decrease but do not reverse drastically.

如果目前的购买压力水平开始降低，但不会急剧逆转，则认为这种结果更有可能。

Finally, if the momentum ratio drops below 0.75, we might see a bearish outcome unfolding. In this case, short-term holders could be induced to cash out in greater numbers, ultimately triggering a correction that could return Bitcoin to the $70,000–$85,000 range.

最后，如果动量比率下降到0.75以下，我们可能会看到看跌的结果正在发展。在这种情况下，可能会诱使短期持有人以更多的数量兑现，最终触发更正，该更正可能使比特币恢复到70,000- $ 85,000的范围。

Many analysts believe this scenario is less likely, given that Bitcoin already experienced a correction in April, which helped reset key indicators and flush out weaker hands.

许多分析师认为，考虑到比特币已经在4月进行了更正，这有助于重置关键指标并冲出弱手，因此这种情况不太可能。

While no one can predict the future with certainty, the current market conditions seem to favor either a continuation of the bullish trend or a consolidation phase. Indicators like the NUPL and MVRV are still showing moderate levels, and with BTC now sitting above the STH realized price, investor sentiment appears to be cautiously optimistic.

尽管没有人能确定地预测未来，但当前的市场状况似乎有利于看涨趋势的延续或合并阶段。 NUPL和MVRV等指标仍显示出中等水平，并且随着BTC现在超过STH实现的价格，投资者的情绪似乎是谨慎乐观的。

For now, Bitcoin stands at a crucial juncture, and its next move will be decisive. Whether it soars toward new highs, stabilizes in a holding pattern, or experiences another pullback will depend on how momentum and buyer behavior evolve in the days to come.

就目前而言，比特币处于关键时刻，其下一步行动将是决定性的。无论是向新的高点飙升，以保持模式稳定，还是经历其他回调将取决于未来几天的动力和买方行为的发展。