比特幣接近$ 109K：短期持有人的情緒轉移

隨著比特幣的歷史最高高價109k，市場興奮開始浮出水面。跟踪這種情感轉變的關鍵工具是損益比的短期持有人（STH）供應

As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches its all-time high of $109k, set in November 2022, signs of market excitement are beginning to emerge once again.

隨著比特幣（BTC）的歷史最高售價為2022年11月，市場興奮的跡像開始再次出現。

A useful tool to track this shift in sentiment is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio, which helps gauge the mood of active investors, typically those who hold coins for several months or less.

跟踪這種情緒轉變的有用工具是損益比的短期持有人（STH）供應，這有助於衡量活躍的投資者的情緒，通常是那些持有硬幣幾個月或更短的人。

This metric proved especially insightful during the correction on April 7, when it dropped to 0.03, signaling that nearly all STH-held supply was underwater. This new low was recorded as BTC hit its $76k price floor.

在4月7日的校正期間，該指標尤其有見地，當時它降至0.03，這表明幾乎所有STH控制的供應都在水下。當BTC達到了7.6萬美元的價格時，該新低點被記錄下來。

Since then, the ratio has surged to 8.69 on July 17, indicating that more than 90% of STH supply is now back in profit.

從那時起，該比率在7月17日飆升至8.69，表明STH供應量的90％以上現在已經恢復了利潤。

This reading is significantly above the equilibrium level of 1.0, suggesting that the bullish momentum is likely to continue as long as the STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio stays well above this threshold.

該讀數顯著高於1.0的均衡水平，這表明，只要STH損益比的供應量遠高於此閾值，看漲的動量可能會持續下去。

However, any prolonged drop below this point could indicate a shift in market strength and suggest the potential for trend exhaustion.

但是，以下任何延長的下降都可能表明市場實力的變化，並暗示趨勢疲憊的潛力。

At present, the STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio is showing no signs of decreasing and has actually been steadily increasing since April 2023.

目前，STH的損益比供應沒有顯示出減少的跡象，自2023年4月以來實際上一直在穩步增加。

This signals that the market strength remains intact, and there is no immediate threat of a strong correction or trend exhaustion.

這表明市場實力保持完整，並且沒有立即糾正或趨勢精疲力盡的威脅。

The STH Realized Profit has also seen a recent surge and is now almost +3 standard deviations above its 90-day average.

STH意識到利潤也已經發生了近期激增，現在幾乎+3標準偏差高於其90天的平均水平。

This reflects a notable increase in profit realization among short-term holders.

這反映了短期持有人的利潤實現顯著增加。

Historically, during previous rallies towards Bitcoin’s all-time high, this metric has reached over +5 standard deviations, indicating that much stronger profit-taking pressure is often necessary to counteract the inflow of fresh demand.

從歷史上看，在以前朝比特幣歷史最高高的集會期間，該指標達到了+5的標準偏差，這表明通常需要更大的利潤壓力來抵消新鮮需求的流入。

However, STH Realized Profit has yet to reach such extremes, suggesting that while profit-taking is certainly present and has seen a recent uptick, it is not yet exerting overwhelming pressure on the market.

但是，STH意識到利潤尚未達到這樣的極端，這表明雖然賺錢肯定存在，並且已經看到了最近的上升，但尚未在市場上施加壓力壓力。

Overall, while short-term holders are sitting on significant unrealized gains, which could lead to increased profit-taking, the STH Realized Profit metric does not yet indicate an impending threat of demand exhaustion, especially not near a potential local top.

總體而言，儘管短期持有人坐在很大的未實現的收益上，這可能會導致利潤增加，但STH實現的利潤指標尚未表明需求耗盡的威脅，尤其是在潛在的本地頂級附近。

To conclude, despite a recent surge in profit-taking, signaled by the STH Realized Profit, this pressure is not yet strong enough to overcome the bullish momentum, which is evident in the high STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio.

總而言之，儘管最近獲得的利潤幅度激增，這表明了STH實現的利潤，但這種壓力還不足以克服看漲的勢頭，這在STH供應量高的利潤/損失率中很明顯。

This suggests that the market is likely to continue trending upwards, especially if we consider the strong institutional demand highlighted by the large spot Bitcoin flows.

這表明市場可能會繼續趨勢上升，尤其是如果我們考慮大量比特幣流量強調的強大機構需求。