比特币接近$ 109K：短期持有人的情绪转移

随着比特币的历史最高高价109k，市场兴奋开始浮出水面。跟踪这种情感转变的关键工具是损益比的短期持有人（STH）供应

As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches its all-time high of $109k, set in November 2022, signs of market excitement are beginning to emerge once again.

随着比特币（BTC）的历史最高售价为2022年11月，市场兴奋的迹象开始再次出现。

A useful tool to track this shift in sentiment is the Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio, which helps gauge the mood of active investors, typically those who hold coins for several months or less.

跟踪这种情绪转变的有用工具是损益比的短期持有人（STH）供应，这有助于衡量活跃的投资者的情绪，通常是那些持有硬币几个月或更短的人。

This metric proved especially insightful during the correction on April 7, when it dropped to 0.03, signaling that nearly all STH-held supply was underwater. This new low was recorded as BTC hit its $76k price floor.

在4月7日的校正期间，该指标尤其有见地，当时它降至0.03，这表明几乎所有STH控制的供应都在水下。当BTC达到了7.6万美元的价格时，该新低点被记录下来。

Since then, the ratio has surged to 8.69 on July 17, indicating that more than 90% of STH supply is now back in profit.

从那时起，该比率在7月17日飙升至8.69，表明STH供应量的90％以上现在已经恢复了利润。

This reading is significantly above the equilibrium level of 1.0, suggesting that the bullish momentum is likely to continue as long as the STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio stays well above this threshold.

该读数显着高于1.0的均衡水平，这表明，只要STH损益比的供应量远高于此阈值，看涨的动量可能会持续下去。

However, any prolonged drop below this point could indicate a shift in market strength and suggest the potential for trend exhaustion.

但是，以下任何延长的下降都可能表明市场实力的变化，并暗示趋势疲惫的潜力。

At present, the STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio is showing no signs of decreasing and has actually been steadily increasing since April 2023.

目前，STH的损益比供应没有显示出减少的迹象，自2023年4月以来实际上一直在稳步增加。

This signals that the market strength remains intact, and there is no immediate threat of a strong correction or trend exhaustion.

这表明市场实力保持完整，并且没有立即纠正或趋势精疲力尽的威胁。

The STH Realized Profit has also seen a recent surge and is now almost +3 standard deviations above its 90-day average.

STH意识到利润也已经发生了近期激增，现在几乎+3标准偏差高于其90天的平均水平。

This reflects a notable increase in profit realization among short-term holders.

这反映了短期持有人的利润实现显着增加。

Historically, during previous rallies towards Bitcoin’s all-time high, this metric has reached over +5 standard deviations, indicating that much stronger profit-taking pressure is often necessary to counteract the inflow of fresh demand.

从历史上看，在以前朝比特币历史最高高的集会期间，该指标达到了+5的标准偏差，这表明通常需要更大的利润压力来抵消新鲜需求的流入。

However, STH Realized Profit has yet to reach such extremes, suggesting that while profit-taking is certainly present and has seen a recent uptick, it is not yet exerting overwhelming pressure on the market.

但是，STH意识到利润尚未达到这样的极端，这表明虽然赚钱肯定存在，并且已经看到了最近的上升，但尚未在市场上施加压力压力。

Overall, while short-term holders are sitting on significant unrealized gains, which could lead to increased profit-taking, the STH Realized Profit metric does not yet indicate an impending threat of demand exhaustion, especially not near a potential local top.

总体而言，尽管短期持有人坐在很大的未实现的收益上，这可能会导致利润增加，但STH实现的利润指标尚未表明需求耗尽的威胁，尤其是在潜在的本地顶级附近。

To conclude, despite a recent surge in profit-taking, signaled by the STH Realized Profit, this pressure is not yet strong enough to overcome the bullish momentum, which is evident in the high STH Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio.

总而言之，尽管最近获得的利润幅度激增，这表明了STH实现的利润，但这种压力还不足以克服看涨的势头，这在STH供应量高的利润/损失率中很明显。

This suggests that the market is likely to continue trending upwards, especially if we consider the strong institutional demand highlighted by the large spot Bitcoin flows.

这表明市场可能会继续趋势上升，尤其是如果我们考虑大量比特币流量强调的强大机构需求。