比特幣的$ 40,000？分析師警告與看漲前景發生衝突

在分析師警告中，比特幣仍可能會撤回40,000美元，儘管看漲信號和新的有史以來的高預測。

Hold onto your hats, crypto enthusiasts! The Bitcoin rollercoaster is showing no signs of slowing down. Amidst predictions of new all-time highs, a seasoned analyst is throwing a curveball: a potential drop to $40,000. Buckle up, because we're diving deep into this whirlwind of speculation.

抓住您的帽子，加密愛好者！比特幣過山車沒有顯示放慢腳步的跡象。在對新歷史高潮的預測中，一位經驗豐富的分析師正在投擲曲線球：潛在的下降到40,000美元。扣緊，因為我們會深入研究這種猜測的旋風。

The Bearish Signal: A Blast from the Past?

看跌信號：過去的爆炸？

Ali Martinez, a well-known crypto analyst, recently highlighted a rare Tom Demark (TD) Sequential sell-signal on Bitcoin's quarterly chart. This isn't just any signal; it's a historically reliable indicator that has often preceded major price drops. Think back to 2015, when a similar signal was followed by a 75% decline, or 2018, when an 85% crash ensued. Martinez suggests that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could plummet to $40,000 – a stomach-churning 64% drop from current levels.

著名的加密分析師阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）最近在比特幣的季度圖表上強調了罕見的湯姆·德馬克（TD）順序賣出信號。這不僅僅是任何信號；這是一個歷史上可靠的指標，通常在大價下跌之前。回想一下2015年，當時類似的信號隨後下降了75％，或者2018年發生了85％的崩潰。馬丁內斯（Martinez）建議，如果歷史重演，比特幣可能會跌至40,000美元，這是胃部減少64％的速度。

But Wait, There's More: The Bullish Counter-Argument

但是等等，還有更多：看漲的反駁

Not everyone is convinced by the bearish prophecy. CryptoGoos, another analyst, views Bitcoin's quarterly close as a positive sign, dismissing comparisons to the 2021 double-top pattern and emphasizing the market's strength. Jelle points to a breakout and successful re-test of a 3-day bullish pennant, suggesting Bitcoin is "ripe for liftoff." He even suggests a potential target of $130,000 if BTC decisively breaks above $110,000.

並非每個人都被看跌的預言所相信。另一位分析師Cryptogoos認為比特幣的季度接近是一個積極的信號，否認了與2021年雙頂模式的比較，並強調了市場的實力。 Jelle指出了一個為期3天的看漲班丹特（Bullish Pennant）的突破並成功重新測試，這表明比特幣是“成熟的升空”。他甚至建議如果BTC果斷地超過110,000美元，可能的目標是130,000美元。

Merlijn The Trader is also riding the bullish wave, spotting a breakout from a falling wedge and the formation of a bull flag on Bitcoin's daily chart. His prediction? A staggering $140,000! With Bitcoin's weekly RSI trending upwards, the bulls are certainly making a strong case.

交易員梅爾利（Merlijn）也正在騎看漲的浪潮，從掉落的楔子中發現了突破，並在比特幣的每日圖表上形成了牛旗。他的預測？驚人的$ 140,000！隨著比特幣每週的RSI趨勢，公牛隊肯定會做出強有力的理由。

Trump's Tax Cut Plan: A Boost for Bitcoin?

特朗普的減稅計劃：比特幣的提升？

Adding another layer to the mix is Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." CryptoBusy believes the bill's $4.5 trillion tax cuts could inject more money into the crypto market, with some finding its way into Bitcoin. Additionally, the bill's incentives for companies to invest could lead to more firms following MicroStrategy's lead and adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. The potential downside? A $3.3 trillion increase in America's debt, which could ironically make Bitcoin look like a safer haven against a weakening dollar.

特朗普的“一項大型賬單法案”中加入另一層。 Cryptobusy認為該法案的4.5萬億美元減稅可能會將更多的錢注入加密貨幣市場，其中一些人將其進入比特幣。此外，該法案對公司進行投資的激勵措施可能會導致更多的公司遵循Microstrategy的領先優勢，並在其資產負債表中增加比特幣。潛在的缺點？美國的債務增加了3.3萬億美元，具有諷刺意味的是，這使比特幣看起來像是一個更安全的避風港，而避風港對美元疲軟。

On-Chain Metrics: A Breakout on the Horizon?

鏈指標：地平線突破？

On-chain data firm Glassnode points to Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base as a key indicator. The upper band of the STH cost basis currently sits around $117,113, signaling a potential target zone if Bitcoin can maintain its momentum. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio also suggests that Bitcoin can rally further before entering "overbought" territory, with the bubble bursting at $123,000.

鏈上數據公司玻璃節點指出，比特幣的短期持有人（STH）成本基礎是關鍵指標。目前，STH成本基礎的上部帶的上限約為117,113美元，這表明如果比特幣能夠維持其勢頭，則可能是潛在的目標區域。實現價值（MVRV）比率的市場價值還表明，比特幣可以在進入“超買”領土之前進行進一步的競爭，泡沫破裂為123,000美元。

So, What's the Verdict?

那麼，判決是什麼？

The Bitcoin market is a complex beast, influenced by technical indicators, macroeconomic factors, and a healthy dose of speculation. While the analyst warning of a potential drop to $40,000 is certainly concerning, it's crucial to consider the counter-arguments and bullish signals. The potential for new all-time highs, driven by factors like Trump's tax cut plan and positive on-chain metrics, cannot be ignored.

比特幣市場是一種複雜的野獸，受技術指標，宏觀經濟因素和健康猜測的影響。雖然分析師警告潛在的降至40,000美元肯定是令人擔憂的，但考慮反對意見和看漲信號至關重要。在特朗普的減稅計劃和積極的鏈上指標之類的因素的驅動下，新的歷史最高點的潛力不容忽視。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

Whether Bitcoin is headed for a crash or a moonshot remains to be seen. One thing's for sure: it's going to be an interesting ride. So, buckle up, do your own research, and remember to take everything with a grain of salt. After all, in the world of crypto, anything is possible!

比特幣是否正在發生崩潰還是月光下還有待觀察。可以肯定的是：這將是一個有趣的旅程。因此，扣緊，進行自己的研究，並記住用一粒鹽來服用所有東西。畢竟，在加密世界中，一切皆有可能！