Stablecoin市場：JPM的預測與萬億美元的潛力 - 現實檢查？

摩根大通對Stablecoin市場的期望與對數万億美元估值的預測形成鮮明對比。真正的潛力是什麼？

The stablecoin scene is buzzing, with projections ranging from grounded to stratospheric. Can the stablecoin market really hit that trillion-dollar mark, or is JPMorgan's more cautious outlook closer to the truth?

穩定的場景正在嗡嗡作響，投影範圍從接地到平流層不等。 Stablecoin市場能否真正達到這一萬億美元的標記，還是摩根大通更謹慎的外觀更接近真相？

JPM's Reality Check: Crypto-Native Demand Reigns

JPM的現實檢查：加密本地需求統治

JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, aren't buying into the hype of exponential growth. Their forecast? A more moderate trajectory, driven primarily by crypto-native activity like trading and decentralized finance (DeFi). They dismiss forecasts of the stablecoin universe ballooning to $1 trillion - $2 trillion as overly optimistic.

由Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou領導的JPMorgan分析師沒有購買指數增長的炒作。他們的預測？更溫和的軌跡，主要由加密本地活動（如交易和分散融資（DEFI））驅動。他們駁斥了穩定宇宙的預測，這些宇宙的熱情量為1萬億美元 - 2萬億美元過於樂觀。

According to JPM's analysis, a whopping 88% of today's stablecoin demand comes from within the crypto ecosystem. Forget mass adoption for payments; even with generous assumptions, that sector won't significantly move the needle.

根據JPM的分析，當今的Stablecoin需求中有88％來自加密生態系統。忘記大規模收養付款；即使有慷慨的假設，該部門也不會顯著移動針頭。

They also pour cold water on comparisons to China’s e-CNY or the Alipay/WeChat Pay phenomenon. Those are centralized systems, unlike the decentralized nature of most stablecoins.

他們還將冷水與中國的E-CNY或支付寶/微信付費現象進行比較。這些是集中式系統，與大多數穩定劑的分散性不同。

The Bullish Counterpoint: $2 Trillion by 2028?

看漲對立面：到2028年，$ 2萬億美元？

Other institutions see a brighter future. Standard Chartered, for example, previously suggested that clear U.S. legislation could legitimize the stablecoin industry, potentially pushing the total stablecoin supply to $2 trillion by the end of 2028.

其他機構會看到更美好的未來。例如，憲章以前提出，明確的立法可以使Stablecoin行業合法化，這可能會在2028年底之前將Stablecoin供應總額提高到2萬億美元。

The Current Landscape: USDT Dominates

當前的景觀：USDT主導

As of July 1, 2025, the stablecoin market cap hovers around $257.46 billion, representing 7.81% of the total crypto market. Tether (USDT) remains the undisputed king, commanding 62.54% of the market share with a capitalization of $157.7 billion and a staggering $62.2 billion in daily trading volume. USD Coin (USDC) follows with a $61.5 billion market cap, but a lower $8.4 billion in trading volume.

截至2025年7月1日，Stablecoin市值徘徊在2574.6億美元中，佔加密貨幣總市場的7.81％。 Tether（USDT）仍然是無可爭議的國王，佔市場份額的62.54％，資本化為1577億美元，每日交易量達到622億美元。美元硬幣（USDC）的市值為615億美元，但交易量減少了84億美元。

While DAI and USDe have similar market caps, DAI sees significantly higher transactional activity, indicating broader acceptance within DeFi.

儘管DAI和USD具有相似的市值，但DAI的交易活動明顯更高，這表明在DEFI中接受了更廣泛的接受。

My Take: A Measured Dose of Optimism

我的看法：一定的樂觀劑量

While a trillion-dollar stablecoin market might be a stretch in the short term, dismissing its potential is short-sighted. The key lies in real-world adoption beyond crypto trading. For instance, cross-border payments are a perfect fit for stablecoins as they offer faster, cheaper, and more transparent option compared to traditional methods. For example, remittances to countries with unstable currencies could benefit greatly from the stability of USD-pegged stablecoins.

雖然短期內可能會有一萬億美元的穩定市場可能是一個遙不可及的市場，但駁回其潛力是短視的。關鍵在於超出加密交易以外的現實領養。例如，與傳統方法相比，跨境支付非常適合穩定幣，因為它們提供更快，更便宜，更透明的選擇。例如，貨幣不穩定的國家的匯款可能會受益於美元固定穩定的穩定性。

However, regulatory clarity is paramount. Without a clear legal framework, institutional investors will remain hesitant, hindering broader adoption. Furthermore, stablecoins need to overcome concerns about transparency and security to build trust with mainstream users.

但是，監管清晰度至關重要。沒有明確的法律框架，機構投資者將保持猶豫，阻礙更廣泛的採用。此外，穩定的人需要克服對透明度和安全性的擔憂，以建立與主流用戶的信任。

The Bottom Line

底線

So, will stablecoins hit the trillion-dollar mark? Maybe someday. But for now, a more grounded approach, focusing on regulatory compliance, real-world use cases, and building trust, is the key to unlocking the true potential of these digital dollars. It's a marathon, not a sprint, folks! Keep your eyes on the prize!

那麼，Stablecoins會擊中萬億美元的商標嗎？也許有一天。但是目前，一種更紮實的方法，專注於法規合規性，現實世界中的用例和建立信任，是釋放這些數字美元真正潛力的關鍵。這是一場馬拉松，不是衝刺，伙計們！請注意獎品！