比特币的$ 40,000？分析师警告与看涨前景发生冲突

在分析师警告中，比特币仍可能会撤回40,000美元，尽管看涨信号和新的有史以来的高预测。

Hold onto your hats, crypto enthusiasts! The Bitcoin rollercoaster is showing no signs of slowing down. Amidst predictions of new all-time highs, a seasoned analyst is throwing a curveball: a potential drop to $40,000. Buckle up, because we're diving deep into this whirlwind of speculation.

抓住您的帽子，加密爱好者！比特币过山车没有显示放慢脚步的迹象。在对新历史高潮的预测中，一位经验丰富的分析师正在投掷曲线球：潜在的下降到40,000美元。扣紧，因为我们会深入研究这种猜测的旋风。

The Bearish Signal: A Blast from the Past?

看跌信号：过去的爆炸？

Ali Martinez, a well-known crypto analyst, recently highlighted a rare Tom Demark (TD) Sequential sell-signal on Bitcoin's quarterly chart. This isn't just any signal; it's a historically reliable indicator that has often preceded major price drops. Think back to 2015, when a similar signal was followed by a 75% decline, or 2018, when an 85% crash ensued. Martinez suggests that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could plummet to $40,000 – a stomach-churning 64% drop from current levels.

著名的加密分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）最近在比特币的季度图表上强调了罕见的汤姆·德马克（TD）顺序卖出信号。这不仅仅是任何信号；这是一个历史上可靠的指标，通常在大价下跌之前。回想一下2015年，当时类似的信号随后下降了75％，或者2018年发生了85％的崩溃。马丁内斯（Martinez）建议，如果历史重演，比特币可能会跌至40,000美元，这是胃部减少64％的速度。

But Wait, There's More: The Bullish Counter-Argument

但是等等，还有更多：看涨的反驳

Not everyone is convinced by the bearish prophecy. CryptoGoos, another analyst, views Bitcoin's quarterly close as a positive sign, dismissing comparisons to the 2021 double-top pattern and emphasizing the market's strength. Jelle points to a breakout and successful re-test of a 3-day bullish pennant, suggesting Bitcoin is "ripe for liftoff." He even suggests a potential target of $130,000 if BTC decisively breaks above $110,000.

并非每个人都被看跌的预言所相信。另一位分析师Cryptogoos认为比特币的季度接近是一个积极的信号，否认了与2021年双顶模式的比较，并强调了市场的实力。 Jelle指出了一个为期3天的看涨班丹特（Bullish Pennant）的突破并成功重新测试，这表明比特币是“成熟的升空”。他甚至建议如果BTC果断地超过110,000美元，可能的目标是130,000美元。

Merlijn The Trader is also riding the bullish wave, spotting a breakout from a falling wedge and the formation of a bull flag on Bitcoin's daily chart. His prediction? A staggering $140,000! With Bitcoin's weekly RSI trending upwards, the bulls are certainly making a strong case.

交易员梅尔利（Merlijn）也正在骑看涨的浪潮，从掉落的楔子中发现了突破，并在比特币的每日图表上形成了牛旗。他的预测？惊人的$ 140,000！随着比特币每周的RSI趋势，公牛队肯定会做出强有力的理由。

Trump's Tax Cut Plan: A Boost for Bitcoin?

特朗普的减税计划：比特币的提升？

Adding another layer to the mix is Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." CryptoBusy believes the bill's $4.5 trillion tax cuts could inject more money into the crypto market, with some finding its way into Bitcoin. Additionally, the bill's incentives for companies to invest could lead to more firms following MicroStrategy's lead and adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets. The potential downside? A $3.3 trillion increase in America's debt, which could ironically make Bitcoin look like a safer haven against a weakening dollar.

特朗普的“一项大型账单法案”中加入另一层。 Cryptobusy认为该法案的4.5万亿美元减税可能会将更多的钱注入加密货币市场，其中一些人将其进入比特币。此外，该法案对公司进行投资的激励措施可能会导致更多的公司遵循Microstrategy的领先优势，并在其资产负债表中增加比特币。潜在的缺点？美国的债务增加了3.3万亿美元，具有讽刺意味的是，这使比特币看起来像是一个更安全的避风港，而避风港对美元疲软。

On-Chain Metrics: A Breakout on the Horizon?

链指标：地平线突破？

On-chain data firm Glassnode points to Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base as a key indicator. The upper band of the STH cost basis currently sits around $117,113, signaling a potential target zone if Bitcoin can maintain its momentum. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio also suggests that Bitcoin can rally further before entering "overbought" territory, with the bubble bursting at $123,000.

链上数据公司玻璃节点指出，比特币的短期持有人（STH）成本基础是关键指标。目前，STH成本基础的上部带的上限约为117,113美元，这表明如果比特币能够维持其势头，则可能是潜在的目标区域。实现价值（MVRV）比率的市场价值还表明，比特币可以在进入“超买”领土之前进行进一步的竞争，泡沫破裂为123,000美元。

So, What's the Verdict?

那么，判决是什么？

The Bitcoin market is a complex beast, influenced by technical indicators, macroeconomic factors, and a healthy dose of speculation. While the analyst warning of a potential drop to $40,000 is certainly concerning, it's crucial to consider the counter-arguments and bullish signals. The potential for new all-time highs, driven by factors like Trump's tax cut plan and positive on-chain metrics, cannot be ignored.

比特币市场是一种复杂的野兽，受技术指标，宏观经济因素和健康猜测的影响。虽然分析师警告潜在的降至40,000美元肯定是令人担忧的，但考虑反对意见和看涨信号至关重要。在特朗普的减税计划和积极的链上指标之类的因素的驱动下，新的历史最高点的潜力不容忽视。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

Whether Bitcoin is headed for a crash or a moonshot remains to be seen. One thing's for sure: it's going to be an interesting ride. So, buckle up, do your own research, and remember to take everything with a grain of salt. After all, in the world of crypto, anything is possible!

比特币是否正在发生崩溃还是月光下还有待观察。可以肯定的是：这将是一个有趣的旅程。因此，扣紧，进行自己的研究，并记住用一粒盐来服用所有东西。毕竟，在加密世界中，一切皆有可能！