銀行業看好比特幣的崛起？

比特幣擁護者將其視為風暴中的穩定燈塔。與與機構健康相關的傳統資產不同，比特幣擁有有限的供應和去中心化的性質。

Bitcoin, the enigmatic digital currency, is once again thrust into the spotlight as the US banking system grapples with mounting stress. While some predict a stratospheric rise to $1 million per coin, fueled by the economic woes, others remain skeptical.

隨著美國銀行體系面臨越來越大的壓力，比特幣這種神秘的數位貨幣再次成為人們關注的焦點。儘管有些人預測，在經濟困境的推動下，每枚代幣的價格將飆升至 100 萬美元，但其他人仍然持懷疑態度。

Banking On Bitcoin’s Rise?

銀行業看好比特幣的崛起？

Proponents of Bitcoin view it as a beacon of stability in a storm. Unlike traditional assets that are closely tied to the health of institutions, Bitcoin boasts a finite supply and a decentralized nature. This, they argue, positions it perfectly to benefit from a “flight to safety” scenario, where investors seek refuge from a potentially collapsing banking system.

比特幣的支持者將其視為風暴中穩定的燈塔。與與機構健康狀況密切相關的傳統資產不同，比特幣擁有有限的供應和去中心化的性質。他們認為，這使其完全能夠從「逃向安全」的情景中受益，即投資者在可能崩潰的銀行體系中尋求庇護。

The recent history seems to support this narrative. In March 2023, the failures of prominent institutions like Silicon Valley Bank coincided with a 40% surge in Bitcoin’s price within a week. Industry figures point to this as evidence of Bitcoin’s role as an “uncorrelated asset class” – a hedge against traditional financial turmoil.

最近的歷史似乎支持了這種說法。 2023 年 3 月，矽谷銀行等知名機構倒閉，比特幣價格一週內飆漲 40%。業界人士指出，這證明了比特幣作為「不相關資產類別」的角色——對沖傳統金融動盪的工具。

Further bolstering this argument is the latest report by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The report paints a concerning picture, highlighting a worrying trend of unrealized losses on securities held by US banks.

聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）的最新報告進一步支持了這一論點。該報告描繪了一幅令人擔憂的景象，突顯了美國銀行持有的證券未實現損失的令人擔憂的趨勢。

These losses, driven by rising interest rates, have ballooned to over $500 billion. Additionally, the number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem Bank List” has grown from 52 to 63 in just one quarter, raising fears about the overall health of the sector.

由於利率上升，這些損失已激增至超過 5,000 億美元。此外，FDIC「問題銀行名單」上的銀行數量在短短一個季度內就從 52 家增加到 63 家，引發了對該行業整體健康狀況的擔憂。

Million-Dollar Dream Or Flight Of Fancy?

百萬美元的夢想還是幻想的飛行？

While the potential for Bitcoin to gain value seems undeniable, the ambitious price target of $1 million faces strong headwinds. Experts warn that such a dramatic surge might come at the cost of a full-blown economic meltdown, a scenario that wouldn’t necessarily benefit Bitcoin in the long run.

雖然比特幣升值的潛力似乎不可否認，但 100 萬美元的雄心勃勃的價格目標面臨著強大的阻力。專家警告說，如此急劇的飆升可能會以全面的經濟崩潰為代價，從長遠來看，這種情況不一定有利於比特幣。

Moreover, Bitcoin’s historical correlation with other assets is not static. While periods of weak correlation exist, there have also been instances of strong correlation, particularly during broader market downturns. This casts doubt on Bitcoin’s ability to completely decouple itself from a struggling traditional financial system.

此外，比特幣與其他資產的歷史相關性並不是靜態的。雖然存在弱相關性時期，但也存在強相關性的情況，特別是在更廣泛的市場低迷時期。這讓人懷疑比特幣是否有能力與陷入困境的傳統金融體系完全脫鉤。

Another factor to consider is the recent uptick in the M2 money supply, a metric representing the total money circulating in the economy. Historically, periods of M2 expansion have coincided with Bitcoin price increases. However, the interplay between money supply and Bitcoin in an environment with a potentially shaky banking system remains an open question.

另一個需要考慮的因素是近期 M2 貨幣供給量的上升，該指標代表經濟體中流通的貨幣總量。從歷史上看，M2擴張時期與比特幣價格上漲同時發生。然而，在銀行體係可能不穩定的環境中，貨幣供應和比特幣之間的相互作用仍然是一個懸而未決的問題。

The Road Ahead For Bitcoin

比特幣的未來之路

Bitcoin’s future is a bit of a guessing game right now. Banks in the US are having some problems, and that could make Bitcoin more valuable. But if the whole economy goes downhill, even Bitcoin might suffer. So, it all depends on how bad things get with the banks and the economy in general.

比特幣的未來現在有點像猜謎遊戲。美國的銀行遇到了一些問題，這可能會使比特幣更有價值。但如果整個經濟走下坡路，即使是比特幣也可能會受到影響。因此，這完全取決於銀行和整體經濟的情況有多糟糕。

Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Trading View

精選圖片來自 Pngtree，圖表來自 Trading View