银行业看好比特币的崛起？

比特币拥护者将其视为风暴中的稳定灯塔。与与机构健康相关的传统资产不同，比特币拥有有限的供应和去中心化的性质。

Bitcoin, the enigmatic digital currency, is once again thrust into the spotlight as the US banking system grapples with mounting stress. While some predict a stratospheric rise to $1 million per coin, fueled by the economic woes, others remain skeptical.

随着美国银行体系面临越来越大的压力，比特币这种神秘的数字货币再次成为人们关注的焦点。尽管一些人预测，在经济困境的推动下，每枚代币的价格将飙升至 100 万美元，但其他人仍然持怀疑态度。

Banking On Bitcoin’s Rise?

银行业看好比特币的崛起？

Proponents of Bitcoin view it as a beacon of stability in a storm. Unlike traditional assets that are closely tied to the health of institutions, Bitcoin boasts a finite supply and a decentralized nature. This, they argue, positions it perfectly to benefit from a “flight to safety” scenario, where investors seek refuge from a potentially collapsing banking system.

比特币的支持者将其视为风暴中稳定的灯塔。与与机构健康状况密切相关的传统资产不同，比特币拥有有限的供应和去中心化的性质。他们认为，这使其完全能够从“逃向安全”的情景中受益，即投资者在可能崩溃的银行体系中寻求庇护。

The recent history seems to support this narrative. In March 2023, the failures of prominent institutions like Silicon Valley Bank coincided with a 40% surge in Bitcoin’s price within a week. Industry figures point to this as evidence of Bitcoin’s role as an “uncorrelated asset class” – a hedge against traditional financial turmoil.

最近的历史似乎支持了这种说法。 2023 年 3 月，硅谷银行等知名机构倒闭，比特币价格在一周内飙升 40%。行业人士指出，这证明了比特币作为“不相关资产类别”的角色——对冲传统金融动荡的工具。

Further bolstering this argument is the latest report by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The report paints a concerning picture, highlighting a worrying trend of unrealized losses on securities held by US banks.

联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的最新报告进一步支持了这一论点。该报告描绘了一幅令人担忧的景象，突显了美国银行持有的证券未实现损失的令人担忧的趋势。

These losses, driven by rising interest rates, have ballooned to over $500 billion. Additionally, the number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem Bank List” has grown from 52 to 63 in just one quarter, raising fears about the overall health of the sector.

由于利率上升，这些损失已激增至超过 5000 亿美元。此外，FDIC“问题银行名单”上的银行数量在短短一个季度内就从 52 家增加到 63 家，引发了对该行业整体健康状况的担忧。

Million-Dollar Dream Or Flight Of Fancy?

百万美元的梦想还是幻想的飞行？

While the potential for Bitcoin to gain value seems undeniable, the ambitious price target of $1 million faces strong headwinds. Experts warn that such a dramatic surge might come at the cost of a full-blown economic meltdown, a scenario that wouldn’t necessarily benefit Bitcoin in the long run.

虽然比特币升值的潜力似乎不可否认，但 100 万美元的雄心勃勃的价格目标面临着强大的阻力。专家警告说，如此急剧的飙升可能会以全面的经济崩溃为代价，从长远来看，这种情况不一定有利于比特币。

Moreover, Bitcoin’s historical correlation with other assets is not static. While periods of weak correlation exist, there have also been instances of strong correlation, particularly during broader market downturns. This casts doubt on Bitcoin’s ability to completely decouple itself from a struggling traditional financial system.

此外，比特币与其他资产的历史相关性并不是静态的。虽然存在弱相关性时期，但也存在强相关性的情况，特别是在更广泛的市场低迷时期。这让人怀疑比特币是否有能力与陷入困境的传统金融体系完全脱钩。

Another factor to consider is the recent uptick in the M2 money supply, a metric representing the total money circulating in the economy. Historically, periods of M2 expansion have coincided with Bitcoin price increases. However, the interplay between money supply and Bitcoin in an environment with a potentially shaky banking system remains an open question.

另一个需要考虑的因素是近期 M2 货币供应量的上升，该指标代表经济中流通的货币总量。从历史上看，M2扩张时期与比特币价格上涨同时发生。然而，在银行体系可能不稳定的环境中，货币供应和比特币之间的相互作用仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。

The Road Ahead For Bitcoin

比特币的未来之路

Bitcoin’s future is a bit of a guessing game right now. Banks in the US are having some problems, and that could make Bitcoin more valuable. But if the whole economy goes downhill, even Bitcoin might suffer. So, it all depends on how bad things get with the banks and the economy in general.

比特币的未来现在有点像猜谜游戏。美国的银行遇到了一些问题，这可能会使比特币更有价值。但如果整个经济走下坡路，即使是比特币也可能会受到影响。因此，这完全取决于银行和整体经济的情况有多糟糕。

Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Trading View

精选图片来自 Pngtree，图表来自 Trading View