亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）在國庫水平上：8500億美元會改變一切嗎？

亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）認為，當美國財政部達到850b $ 850b時，加密“僅”模式觸發。但是財政部流動性真的決定了加密貨幣的命運嗎？

Arthur Hayes on Treasury Levels: Will $850 Billion Change Everything?

亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）在國庫水平上：8500億美元會改變一切嗎？

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, thinks an $850 billion U.S. Treasury balance is crypto's magic number. Will it really change everything?

Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes認為，美國財政部餘額為8500億美元是加密貨幣的魔術數字。它真的會改變一切嗎？

Hayes's $850 Billion Thesis

海耶斯的8500億美元論文

Hayes argues that when the U.S. Treasury's General Account (TGA) hits $850 billion, it signals the start of a sustained crypto bull run. He sees the Treasury's liquidity accumulation as a temporary drain on capital, followed by an influx that will boost risky assets like crypto.

海耶斯認為，當美國財政部的一般帳戶（TGA）達到8500億美元時，它標誌著持續的加密公牛運行的開始。他認為財政部的流動性積累是資本的臨時消耗，然後是湧入，將增加像加密貨幣這樣的冒險資產。

The Counter-Argument

反駁

Not everyone buys into Hayes's theory. André Dragosch from Bitwise Asset Management calls the correlation between liquidity and Bitcoin "weak and misleading." He argues that crypto's dynamics are far more complex, influenced by investor sentiment, institutional flows, and regulations, not just Treasury levels.

並非每個人都購買海斯的理論。來自位資產管理的AndréDragosch稱流動性與比特幣之間的相關性為“弱和誤導”。他認為，加密貨幣的動態更為複雜，受投資者情緒，機構流動和法規的影響，而不僅僅是國庫。

Rate Cuts and Market Reactions

削減稅率和市場反應

The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, the first cut since 2024. The market reaction wasn't straightforward. Some analysts, like Nic Puckrin from Coin Bureau, suggest the rate cut was already priced in. The Fed itself seems divided on future cuts, adding another layer of uncertainty.

美聯儲最近削減了利率，這是自2024年以來的首次削減。市場反應並不簡單。一些分析師，例如Coin Bureau的Nic Puckrin，表明削減速度已經定價。美聯儲本身似乎在未來的削減方面有所分歧，增加了另一種不確定性。

Personal Take

私人

Hayes's idea is interesting, but to say that the Treasury hitting a specific level will unilaterally change everything is an oversimplification. Crypto's influenced by many factors. Hayes's framework is useful for understanding potential liquidity shifts, but it shouldn't be the only factor you look at.

海耶斯的想法很有趣，但是說擊中特定級別的財政部將單方面改變一切都是過分簡化的。加密受到許多因素的影響。海斯的框架對於理解潛在的流動性轉移很有用，但這不應該是您看到的唯一因素。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

Will $850 billion in the Treasury trigger a crypto revolution? Maybe, maybe not. But hey, it's fun to speculate, right? Keep an eye on that TGA balance – and maybe a four-leaf clover just in case!

財政部的8500億美元會引發加密革命嗎？也許，也許不是。但是，猜測很有趣，對嗎？密切關注TGA平衡 - 也許是四葉草的三葉草，以防萬一！