亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）在国库水平上：8500亿美元会改变一切吗？

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）认为，当美国财政部达到850b $ 850b时，加密“仅”模式触发。但是财政部流动性真的决定了加密货币的命运吗？

Arthur Hayes on Treasury Levels: Will $850 Billion Change Everything?

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）在国库水平上：8500亿美元会改变一切吗？

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, thinks an $850 billion U.S. Treasury balance is crypto's magic number. Will it really change everything?

Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes认为，美国财政部余额为8500亿美元是加密货币的魔术数字。它真的会改变一切吗？

Hayes's $850 Billion Thesis

海耶斯的8500亿美元论文

Hayes argues that when the U.S. Treasury's General Account (TGA) hits $850 billion, it signals the start of a sustained crypto bull run. He sees the Treasury's liquidity accumulation as a temporary drain on capital, followed by an influx that will boost risky assets like crypto.

海耶斯认为，当美国财政部的一般帐户（TGA）达到8500亿美元时，它标志着持续的加密公牛运行的开始。他认为财政部的流动性积累是资本的临时消耗，然后是涌入，将增加像加密货币这样的冒险资产。

The Counter-Argument

反驳

Not everyone buys into Hayes's theory. André Dragosch from Bitwise Asset Management calls the correlation between liquidity and Bitcoin "weak and misleading." He argues that crypto's dynamics are far more complex, influenced by investor sentiment, institutional flows, and regulations, not just Treasury levels.

并非每个人都购买海斯的理论。来自位资产管理的AndréDragosch称流动性与比特币之间的相关性为“弱和误导”。他认为，加密货币的动态更为复杂，受投资者情绪，机构流动和法规的影响，而不仅仅是国库。

Rate Cuts and Market Reactions

削减税率和市场反应

The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, the first cut since 2024. The market reaction wasn't straightforward. Some analysts, like Nic Puckrin from Coin Bureau, suggest the rate cut was already priced in. The Fed itself seems divided on future cuts, adding another layer of uncertainty.

美联储最近削减了利率，这是自2024年以来的首次削减。市场反应并不简单。一些分析师，例如Coin Bureau的Nic Puckrin，表明削减速度已经定价。美联储本身似乎在未来的削减方面有所分歧，增加了另一种不确定性。

Personal Take

私人

Hayes's idea is interesting, but to say that the Treasury hitting a specific level will unilaterally change everything is an oversimplification. Crypto's influenced by many factors. Hayes's framework is useful for understanding potential liquidity shifts, but it shouldn't be the only factor you look at.

海耶斯的想法很有趣，但是说击中特定级别的财政部将单方面改变一切都是过分简化的。加密受到许多因素的影响。海斯的框架对于理解潜在的流动性转移很有用，但这不应该是您看到的唯一因素。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

Will $850 billion in the Treasury trigger a crypto revolution? Maybe, maybe not. But hey, it's fun to speculate, right? Keep an eye on that TGA balance – and maybe a four-leaf clover just in case!

财政部的8500亿美元会引发加密革命吗？也许，也许不是。但是，猜测很有趣，对吗？密切关注TGA平衡 - 也许是四叶草的三叶草，以防万一！