美國信用皇冠滑倒，比特幣的安靜革命獲得了蒸汽

在穆迪（Moody）對美國聲譽造成歷史性打擊之後，本週對曼哈頓金融區的風顯著尖銳。

The wind whipped sharply across Manhattan’s financial district this week, carrying with it the stirrings of history. After a stellar century in the echelons of financial perfection, the U.S. is facing a new reality.

本週，風在曼哈頓的金融區猛烈鞭打，帶來了歷史的轟動。在經濟完美的梯隊中度過了一個恆星的世紀之後，美國面臨著新的現實。

America’s Credit Crown Slips, Global Trust Wavers

美國的信用皇冠滑倒，全球信託搖擺

Moody’s slashed its rating of the U.S. government. Cutting it from Aaa to Aa1 is an unthinkable move to those who grew up with the dollar as the untouchable fabric of global finance.

穆迪（Moody）削減了美國政府的評級。將其從AAA削減到AA1是向那些以美元成長為全球金融織物的人的不可想像的舉動。

But it’s a measure of the times. The U.S. has now lost the top rating tier from all major agencies—a streak that snapped only after similar downgrades from S&P in 2011 and Fitch earlier in 2023.

但這是對時代的衡量標準。現在，美國失去了所有主要代理商的最高評級層，這種連勝只有在2011年從標準普爾（S＆P）降級類似，並於2023年早些時候降級。

America’s credit rating downgraded again, this time by Moody’s. What does it mean for your investments and finances?

這次，美國的信用評級再次降低了。這對您的投資和財務意味著什麼？

America’s credit rating downgraded again, this time by Moody’s. What does it mean for your investments and finances?

這次，美國的信用評級再次降低了。這對您的投資和財務意味著什麼？

It’s a story unfolding in several chapters:

這是一個在幾章中展開的故事：

* Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. For the first time in more than 100 years, the U.S. no longer holds the highest possible rating from any major credit rating agency.

*穆迪將美國的信用評級從AAA降低到AA1。 100多年來，美國不再擁有任何主要信用評級機構的最高評級。

* The downgrade comes amid mounting concerns over rising U.S. deficits, ballooning interest payments—which are now the largest single budget item, surpassing even defense—and persistent political gridlock that hinders meaningful long-term fiscal planning.

*降級是在對美國赤字增加的持續擔憂之中，現在是最大的單一預算項目，甚至超過了國防部，並且持續的政治僵局阻礙了有意義的長期財政計劃。

* As a result of the downgrade, Treasury yields spiked sharply, and equity futures slid in early morning trade on Tuesday. The White House reacted by calling the move by Moody’s “political.” But investor confidence, already battered by a string of setbacks, is likely to be slow to recover.

*由於降級，財政部產生了急劇飆升，股票期貨在周二清晨的交易中滑行。白宮通過穆迪的“政治”稱呼這一舉動來做出反應。但是，已經受到一系列挫折襲擊的投資者信心可能會很慢。

Bitcoin Quietly Gains Strength

比特幣悄悄地獲得力量

While the flames of uncertainty flickered in Washington, a different drama unfolded in the world of digital finance.

儘管不確定性的火焰在華盛頓閃爍著，但在數字金融世界中展開了另一場戲劇。

On-chain metrics unveiled a steady exodus of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges. After a brief blip upward in early July, the amount of BTC sitting on major trading platforms has once again fallen to just 1.41 million coins—the lowest in recent years.

鏈上指標從集中式交流中揭示了比特幣的穩定出現。經過7月初的短暫關注後，坐在主要交易平台上的BTC數量再次下降到141萬個硬幣，這是近年來最低的。

This is a crucial factor for anyone tracking the pulse of the crypto market. When Bitcoin flows out of exchanges, it signals that traders are moving their assets into private wallets, where they plan to hold them for the long term.

對於跟踪加密市場脈搏的任何人來說，這都是至關重要的因素。當比特幣從交流中流出時，它表明交易者正在將其資產轉移到私人錢包中，他們計劃長期將其持有。

The last time a similar trend emerged in 2020, it played out as the prelude to a stellar bull rally. As more and more Bitcoin disappeared from exchanges throughout that year, it pushed the narrative of scarcity to a fever pitch, ultimately setting the stage for a 300% price surge.

上一次在2020年出現類似的趨勢時，它是出色的公牛集會的前奏。隨著當年越來越多的比特幣從交流中消失，它將稀缺性的敘述推向了發燒，最終為300％的價格上漲奠定了基礎。

Bitcoin Still at a Crossroads

比特幣仍在十字路口

However, traders see that the Ichimoku Cloud—a technical tool used to identify trends, support, and resistance—is still indicating a period of consolidation. Both the kijun and tenkan lines are nearly flat, and the cloud itself is very narrow, signaling that neither buyers nor sellers are yet in complete control.

但是，交易者認為，Ichimoku Cloud（用於識別趨勢，支持和阻力的技術工具）仍表明了一個合併時期。 Kijun和Tenkan線幾乎都是平坦的，雲本身非常狹窄，表明買賣雙方都沒有完全控制。

The Absence of Panic or Euphoria

缺乏恐慌或欣快感

Despite the recent price pullback from the $105,000 zone, there’s no sign of panic selling or widespread fear. Instead, the market is calmly testing support levels as it prepares for the next leg of the move.

儘管最近從105,000美元的區域撤回了價格，但沒有恐慌出售或廣泛恐懼的跡象。取而代之的是，市場正在為下一個舉動做準備時，正在冷靜地測試支持水平。

The Implications for Investors

對投資者的影響

As U.S. policymakers grapple with trillion-dollar spending bills and the long-term economic outlook remains uncertain, investors are increasingly turning to alternative assets.

由於美國政策制定者努力應對萬億美元的支出賬單，而長期的經濟前景仍然不確定，投資者越來越多地轉向替代資產。

Bitcoin, with its fixed supply forever capped at 21 million coins, stands out as a unique asset class that isn’t subject to dilution or devaluation. More than 70% of all mined Bitcoin today lies in long-term wallets, largely untouched for at least 12 months and immune to the macroeconomic storms brewing in Washington.

比特幣的固定供應永遠限制在2100萬個硬幣上，它是一種獨特的資產類別，不受稀釋或貶值的影響。如今，所有採礦比特幣中有70％以上是長期的錢包，至少12個月未觸及，並免疫華盛頓釀造的宏觀經濟風暴。

Corporations and institutions are also taking notice. Since 2020, companies like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and Block have accumulated billions in Bitcoin, demonstrating a shift in investment strategy as traditional assets come under pressure.

公司和機構也在註意到。自2020年以來，像特斯拉，微觀和Block這樣的公司在比特幣中積累了數十億美元，這表明隨著傳統資產承受壓力，投資策略發生了變化。

Historical Perspective

歷史觀點

Throughout history, assets that exist outside the control of central banks or governments have often performed best during periods of extreme market turbulence. In the 20th century, we saw this with gold during times of war, hyperinflation, and political unrest.

在整個歷史上，在中央銀行或政府控制之外存在的資產通常在極端市場動盪時期表現最好。在20世紀，我們在戰爭時期，過度通貨膨脹和政治動盪中看到了這一點。

As the U.S. faces increasing macroeconomic headwinds, and investors grow more skeptical of traditional investment vehicles, it’s no surprise to see a corresponding rise in interest toward assets like Bitcoin.

隨著美國面臨宏觀經濟的逆風，投資者對傳統投資工具的持懷疑態度越來越大，這並不奇怪，看到對比特幣等資產的興趣相應上升也就不足為奇了。

What Happens Next?

接下來會發生什麼？

From a technical perspective, the $105,755 level serves as a key resistance zone, which, once breached, could spark a continuation of the bull rally toward the next resistance at $108,000.

從技術角度來看，105,755美元的水平是一個關鍵的阻力區，一旦違反，該區域可能會引發公牛集會的延續，向下一個電阻以108,000美元的價格引發。

If the bears manage to push the price lower from here, the next support

如果熊隊設法從這裡提高了價格，那麼下一個支持