美国信用皇冠滑倒，比特币的安静革命获得了蒸汽

在穆迪（Moody）对美国声誉造成历史性打击之后，本周对曼哈顿金融区的风显着尖锐。

The wind whipped sharply across Manhattan’s financial district this week, carrying with it the stirrings of history. After a stellar century in the echelons of financial perfection, the U.S. is facing a new reality.

本周，风在曼哈顿的金融区猛烈鞭打，带来了历史的轰动。在经济完美的梯队中度过了一个恒星的世纪之后，美国面临着新的现实。

America’s Credit Crown Slips, Global Trust Wavers

美国的信用皇冠滑倒，全球信托摇摆

Moody’s slashed its rating of the U.S. government. Cutting it from Aaa to Aa1 is an unthinkable move to those who grew up with the dollar as the untouchable fabric of global finance.

穆迪（Moody）削减了美国政府的评级。将其从AAA削减到AA1是向那些以美元成长为全球金融织物的人的不可想象的举动。

But it’s a measure of the times. The U.S. has now lost the top rating tier from all major agencies—a streak that snapped only after similar downgrades from S&P in 2011 and Fitch earlier in 2023.

但这是对时代的衡量标准。现在，美国失去了所有主要代理商的最高评级层，这种连胜只有在2011年从标准普尔（S＆P）降级的类似降级和2023年早些时候降级后。

America’s credit rating downgraded again, this time by Moody’s. What does it mean for your investments and finances?

这次，美国的信用评级再次降低了。这对您的投资和财务意味着什么？

America’s credit rating downgraded again, this time by Moody’s. What does it mean for your investments and finances?

这次，美国的信用评级再次降低了。这对您的投资和财务意味着什么？

It’s a story unfolding in several chapters:

这是一个在几章中展开的故事：

* Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. For the first time in more than 100 years, the U.S. no longer holds the highest possible rating from any major credit rating agency.

*穆迪将美国的信用评级从AAA降低到AA1。 100多年来，美国不再拥有任何主要信用评级机构的最高评级。

* The downgrade comes amid mounting concerns over rising U.S. deficits, ballooning interest payments—which are now the largest single budget item, surpassing even defense—and persistent political gridlock that hinders meaningful long-term fiscal planning.

*降级是在对美国赤字增加的持续担忧之中，现在是最大的单一预算项目，甚至超过了国防部，并且持续的政治僵局阻碍了有意义的长期财政计划。

* As a result of the downgrade, Treasury yields spiked sharply, and equity futures slid in early morning trade on Tuesday. The White House reacted by calling the move by Moody’s “political.” But investor confidence, already battered by a string of setbacks, is likely to be slow to recover.

*由于降级，财政部产生了急剧飙升，股票期货在周二清晨的交易中滑行。白宫通过穆迪的“政治”称呼这一举动来做出反应。但是，已经受到一系列挫折袭击的投资者信心可能会很慢。

Bitcoin Quietly Gains Strength

比特币悄悄地获得力量

While the flames of uncertainty flickered in Washington, a different drama unfolded in the world of digital finance.

尽管不确定性的火焰在华盛顿闪烁着，但在数字金融世界中展开了另一场戏剧。

On-chain metrics unveiled a steady exodus of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges. After a brief blip upward in early July, the amount of BTC sitting on major trading platforms has once again fallen to just 1.41 million coins—the lowest in recent years.

链上指标从集中式交流中揭示了比特币的稳定出现。经过7月初的短暂关注后，坐在主要交易平台上的BTC数量再次下降到141万个硬币，这是近年来最低的。

This is a crucial factor for anyone tracking the pulse of the crypto market. When Bitcoin flows out of exchanges, it signals that traders are moving their assets into private wallets, where they plan to hold them for the long term.

对于跟踪加密市场脉搏的任何人来说，这都是至关重要的因素。当比特币从交流中流出时，它表明交易者正在将其资产转移到私人钱包中，他们计划长期将其持有。

The last time a similar trend emerged in 2020, it played out as the prelude to a stellar bull rally. As more and more Bitcoin disappeared from exchanges throughout that year, it pushed the narrative of scarcity to a fever pitch, ultimately setting the stage for a 300% price surge.

上一次在2020年出现类似的趋势时，它是出色的公牛集会的前奏。随着当年越来越多的比特币从交流中消失，它将稀缺性的叙述推向了发烧，最终为300％的价格上涨奠定了基础。

Bitcoin Still at a Crossroads

比特币仍在十字路口

However, traders see that the Ichimoku Cloud—a technical tool used to identify trends, support, and resistance—is still indicating a period of consolidation. Both the kijun and tenkan lines are nearly flat, and the cloud itself is very narrow, signaling that neither buyers nor sellers are yet in complete control.

但是，交易者认为，Ichimoku Cloud（用于识别趋势，支持和阻力的技术工具）仍表明了一个合并时期。 Kijun和Tenkan线几乎都是平坦的，云本身非常狭窄，表明买卖双方都没有完全控制。

The Absence of Panic or Euphoria

缺乏恐慌或欣快感

Despite the recent price pullback from the $105,000 zone, there’s no sign of panic selling or widespread fear. Instead, the market is calmly testing support levels as it prepares for the next leg of the move.

尽管最近从105,000美元的区域撤回了价格，但没有恐慌出售或广泛恐惧的迹象。取而代之的是，市场正在为下一个举动做准备时，正在冷静地测试支持水平。

The Implications for Investors

对投资者的影响

As U.S. policymakers grapple with trillion-dollar spending bills and the long-term economic outlook remains uncertain, investors are increasingly turning to alternative assets.

由于美国政策制定者努力应对万亿美元的支出账单，而长期的经济前景仍然不确定，投资者越来越多地转向替代资产。

Bitcoin, with its fixed supply forever capped at 21 million coins, stands out as a unique asset class that isn’t subject to dilution or devaluation. More than 70% of all mined Bitcoin today lies in long-term wallets, largely untouched for at least 12 months and immune to the macroeconomic storms brewing in Washington.

比特币的固定供应永远限制在2100万个硬币上，它是一种独特的资产类别，不受稀释或贬值的影响。如今，所有采矿比特币中有70％以上是长期的钱包，至少12个月未触及，并免疫华盛顿酿造的宏观经济风暴。

Corporations and institutions are also taking notice. Since 2020, companies like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and Block have accumulated billions in Bitcoin, demonstrating a shift in investment strategy as traditional assets come under pressure.

公司和机构也在注意到。自2020年以来，像特斯拉，微观和Block这样的公司在比特币中积累了数十亿美元，这表明随着传统资产承受压力，投资策略发生了变化。

Historical Perspective

历史观点

Throughout history, assets that exist outside the control of central banks or governments have often performed best during periods of extreme market turbulence. In the 20th century, we saw this with gold during times of war, hyperinflation, and political unrest.

在整个历史上，在中央银行或政府控制之外存在的资产通常在极端市场动荡时期表现最好。在20世纪，我们在战争时期，过度通货膨胀和政治动荡中看到了这一点。

As the U.S. faces increasing macroeconomic headwinds, and investors grow more skeptical of traditional investment vehicles, it’s no surprise to see a corresponding rise in interest toward assets like Bitcoin.

随着美国面临宏观经济的逆风，投资者对传统投资工具的持怀疑态度越来越大，这并不奇怪，看到对比特币等资产的兴趣相应上升也就不足为奇了。

What Happens Next?

接下来会发生什么？

From a technical perspective, the $105,755 level serves as a key resistance zone, which, once breached, could spark a continuation of the bull rally toward the next resistance at $108,000.

从技术角度来看，105,755美元的水平是一个关键的阻力区，一旦违反，该区域可能会引发公牛集会的延续，向下一个电阻以108,000美元的价格引发。

If the bears manage to push the price lower from here, the next support

如果熊队设法从这里提高了价格，那么下一个支持