Willy Woo Explains Why Bitcoin CAGR Will Drop In the Next Decade

Amid calls of Bitcoin price rally to $500K and $1 million by 2030, maximalist Willy Woo said that on a realistic basis, BTC’s compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) will drop

Bitcoin maximalist Willy Woo has set realistic expectations for the cryptocurrency’s performance in the next decade.

While some analysts are calling for Bitcoin price to rally to $500K and $1 million by 2030, Woo said that on a realistic basis, BTC’s Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) will drop to under 10%, compared to the current 40%.

Woo’s projections come from historical data, setting up some expectations.

BTC is gaining prominence as a global macro asset.

Prominent analyst Willy Woo has offered insights into Bitcoin’s Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), highlighting a shift in its growth dynamics.

Speaking on the Unchained podcast, Woo explained that Bitcoin’s explosive growth phases, like the 100%-plus CAGR seen before 2017, are now part of its history.

202 was a pivotal year as it became institutionalised, and corporations and sovereign entities began to accumulate the assets.

Further, with the arrival of spot BTC ETFs in January 2024, institutional exposure to BTC has shot up massively. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has seen massive inflows of over $45 billion since its inception, making it the top-ranking ETF in the market.

However, this institutional adoption coincided with a drop in CAGR from over 100% to the 30-40% range, which continues to trend downward as BTC evolves into a macro asset.

BTC is the first new global macro asset in 150 years, and it will steadily absorb capital until reaching equilibrium.

This equilibrium will occur when CAGR drops to around 8%, aligning with global monetary expansion (5%) and GDP growth (3%).

“Until then, maybe 15-20 years away, enjoy the ride because almost no publicly investable product can match BTC performance long term, even as BTC’s CAGR continues to erode,” concluded Woo.

Last week, Moody’s downgraded US Credit ratings, citing the massively rising debt payments and the growing fragility in the US economy.

Market analysts believe that with BTC price just 4% away from its all-time high, the asset is showing greater relative strength.

As the US Dollar weakens and uncertainty rises, Bitcoin and Gold are thriving. Instability is Bitcoin’s best friend.

On the other hand, Bloomberg Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone has highlighted the BTC-to-gold ratio as a key indicator for market trends.

Despite BTC showing signs of crowd-driven buying following the U.S. presidential election, the BTC-to-gold ratio remains steady at approximately 32x, unchanged since 2021.

As of now, the BTC price continues to flirt around $103,500, failing to deliver a weekly close above the crucial resistance of $105K.