威利·沃（Willy Woo）解釋了為什麼比特幣CAGR在未來十年中會下降

在比特幣價格集會的電話中，到2030年到2030年，馬克斯·威利·沃（Willy Woo）表示，在現實的基礎上，BTC的複合年增長率（CAGR）將下降

Bitcoin maximalist Willy Woo has set realistic expectations for the cryptocurrency’s performance in the next decade.

比特幣最大主義者威利·沃（Willy Woo）在未來十年對加密貨幣的性能設定了現實的期望。

While some analysts are calling for Bitcoin price to rally to $500K and $1 million by 2030, Woo said that on a realistic basis, BTC’s Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) will drop to under 10%, compared to the current 40%.

儘管一些分析師呼籲到2030年將比特幣價格升至50萬美元和100萬美元，但Woo表示，在現實的基礎上，BTC的複合年增長率（CAGR）將下跌至10％以下，而當前的40％則為40％。

Woo’s projections come from historical data, setting up some expectations.

Woo的預測來自歷史數據，建立了一些期望。

BTC is gaining prominence as a global macro asset.

作為全球宏觀資產，BTC正在獲得突出性。

Prominent analyst Willy Woo has offered insights into Bitcoin’s Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), highlighting a shift in its growth dynamics.

著名的分析師威利·沃（Willy Woo）提供了對比特幣複合年增長率（CAGR）的見解，強調了其增長動態的變化。

Speaking on the Unchained podcast, Woo explained that Bitcoin’s explosive growth phases, like the 100%-plus CAGR seen before 2017, are now part of its history.

Woo在談到無鏈接的播客時解釋說，比特幣的爆炸性增長階段，例如2017年之前看到的100％以上的複合年增長率，現在已成為其歷史的一部分。

202 was a pivotal year as it became institutionalised, and corporations and sovereign entities began to accumulate the assets.

202年是關鍵的一年，隨著制度化，公司和主權實體開始積累資產。

Further, with the arrival of spot BTC ETFs in January 2024, institutional exposure to BTC has shot up massively. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has seen massive inflows of over $45 billion since its inception, making it the top-ranking ETF in the market.

此外，隨著2024年1月BTC ETF的到來，機構接觸BTC的暴露量大大增加了。貝萊德（BlackRock）的iShares比特幣信託（IBIT）自啟動以來的大量流入超過450億美元，使其成為市場上最重要的ETF。

However, this institutional adoption coincided with a drop in CAGR from over 100% to the 30-40% range, which continues to trend downward as BTC evolves into a macro asset.

但是，這種機構的採用率與CAGR從100％以上降低到30-40％的範圍，隨著BTC發展為宏觀資產，這種情況繼續向下趨勢。

BTC is the first new global macro asset in 150 years, and it will steadily absorb capital until reaching equilibrium.

BTC是150年來的首個全球宏觀資產，它將穩步吸收資本，直到達到平衡。

This equilibrium will occur when CAGR drops to around 8%, aligning with global monetary expansion (5%) and GDP growth (3%).

當CAGR下降到8％左右，與全球貨幣擴張（5％）和GDP增長（3％）一致時，這種平衡將發生。

“Until then, maybe 15-20 years away, enjoy the ride because almost no publicly investable product can match BTC performance long term, even as BTC’s CAGR continues to erode,” concluded Woo.

Woo總結說：“在那之前，大概有15到20年的時間，享受這次旅行，因為幾乎沒有公共投資的產品可以長期與BTC的性能相匹配，即使BTC的CAGR繼續侵蝕。”

Last week, Moody’s downgraded US Credit ratings, citing the massively rising debt payments and the growing fragility in the US economy.

上週，穆迪（Moody）降低了美國的信用評級，理由是債務付款的上漲和美國經濟中日益增長的脆弱性。

Market analysts believe that with BTC price just 4% away from its all-time high, the asset is showing greater relative strength.

市場分析師認為，由於BTC價格距離其歷史最高高4％，因此資產顯示出更大的相對實力。

As the US Dollar weakens and uncertainty rises, Bitcoin and Gold are thriving. Instability is Bitcoin’s best friend.

隨著美元削弱和不確定性的上升，比特幣和黃金正在蓬勃發展。不穩定是比特幣的最好朋友。

On the other hand, Bloomberg Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone has highlighted the BTC-to-gold ratio as a key indicator for market trends.

另一方面，彭博商品策略師邁克·麥格隆（Mike McGlone）強調了BTC-gold比率是市場趨勢的關鍵指標。

Despite BTC showing signs of crowd-driven buying following the U.S. presidential election, the BTC-to-gold ratio remains steady at approximately 32x, unchanged since 2021.

儘管BTC在美國總統大選後顯示出人群驅動的跡象，但BTC與金的比率保持穩定約為32倍，自2021年以來一直保持不變。

As of now, the BTC price continues to flirt around $103,500, failing to deliver a weekly close above the crucial resistance of $105K.

截至目前，BTC的價格繼續調情約103,500美元，未能超過105,000美元的關鍵阻力。