威利·沃（Willy Woo）解释了为什么比特币CAGR在未来十年中会下降

在比特币价格集会的电话中，到2030年到2030年，马克斯·威利·沃（Willy Woo）表示，在现实的基础上，BTC的复合年增长率（CAGR）将下降

Bitcoin maximalist Willy Woo has set realistic expectations for the cryptocurrency’s performance in the next decade.

比特币最大主义者威利·沃（Willy Woo）在未来十年对加密货币的性能设定了现实的期望。

While some analysts are calling for Bitcoin price to rally to $500K and $1 million by 2030, Woo said that on a realistic basis, BTC’s Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) will drop to under 10%, compared to the current 40%.

尽管一些分析师呼吁到2030年将比特币价格升至50万美元和100万美元，但Woo表示，在现实的基础上，BTC的复合年增长率（CAGR）将下跌至10％以下，而当前的40％则为40％。

Woo’s projections come from historical data, setting up some expectations.

Woo的预测来自历史数据，建立了一些期望。

BTC is gaining prominence as a global macro asset.

作为全球宏观资产，BTC正在获得突出性。

Prominent analyst Willy Woo has offered insights into Bitcoin’s Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), highlighting a shift in its growth dynamics.

著名的分析师威利·沃（Willy Woo）提供了对比特币复合年增长率（CAGR）的见解，强调了其增长动态的变化。

Speaking on the Unchained podcast, Woo explained that Bitcoin’s explosive growth phases, like the 100%-plus CAGR seen before 2017, are now part of its history.

Woo在谈到无链接的播客时解释说，比特币的爆炸性增长阶段，例如2017年之前看到的100％以上的复合年增长率，现在已成为其历史的一部分。

202 was a pivotal year as it became institutionalised, and corporations and sovereign entities began to accumulate the assets.

202年是关键的一年，随着制度化，公司和主权实体开始积累资产。

Further, with the arrival of spot BTC ETFs in January 2024, institutional exposure to BTC has shot up massively. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has seen massive inflows of over $45 billion since its inception, making it the top-ranking ETF in the market.

此外，随着2024年1月BTC ETF的到来，机构接触BTC的暴露量大大增加了。贝莱德（BlackRock）的iShares比特币信托（IBIT）自启动以来的大量流入超过450亿美元，使其成为市场上最重要的ETF。

However, this institutional adoption coincided with a drop in CAGR from over 100% to the 30-40% range, which continues to trend downward as BTC evolves into a macro asset.

但是，这种机构的采用率与CAGR从100％以上降低到30-40％的范围，随着BTC发展为宏观资产，这种情况继续向下趋势。

BTC is the first new global macro asset in 150 years, and it will steadily absorb capital until reaching equilibrium.

BTC是150年来的首个全球宏观资产，它将稳步吸收资本，直到达到平衡。

This equilibrium will occur when CAGR drops to around 8%, aligning with global monetary expansion (5%) and GDP growth (3%).

当CAGR下降到8％左右，与全球货币扩张（5％）和GDP增长（3％）一致时，这种平衡将发生。

“Until then, maybe 15-20 years away, enjoy the ride because almost no publicly investable product can match BTC performance long term, even as BTC’s CAGR continues to erode,” concluded Woo.

Woo总结说：“在那之前，大概有15到20年的时间，享受这次旅行，因为几乎没有公共投资的产品可以长期与BTC的性能相匹配，即使BTC的CAGR继续侵蚀。”

Last week, Moody’s downgraded US Credit ratings, citing the massively rising debt payments and the growing fragility in the US economy.

上周，穆迪（Moody）降低了美国的信用评级，理由是债务付款的上涨和美国经济中日益增长的脆弱性。

Market analysts believe that with BTC price just 4% away from its all-time high, the asset is showing greater relative strength.

市场分析师认为，由于BTC价格距离其历史最高高4％，因此资产显示出更大的相对实力。

As the US Dollar weakens and uncertainty rises, Bitcoin and Gold are thriving. Instability is Bitcoin’s best friend.

随着美元削弱和不确定性的上升，比特币和黄金正在蓬勃发展。不稳定是比特币的最好朋友。

On the other hand, Bloomberg Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone has highlighted the BTC-to-gold ratio as a key indicator for market trends.

另一方面，彭博商品策略师迈克·麦格隆（Mike McGlone）强调了BTC-gold比率是市场趋势的关键指标。

Despite BTC showing signs of crowd-driven buying following the U.S. presidential election, the BTC-to-gold ratio remains steady at approximately 32x, unchanged since 2021.

尽管BTC在美国总统大选后显示出人群驱动的迹象，但BTC与金的比率保持稳定约为32倍，自2021年以来一直保持不变。

As of now, the BTC price continues to flirt around $103,500, failing to deliver a weekly close above the crucial resistance of $105K.

截至目前，BTC的价格继续调情约103,500美元，未能超过105,000美元的关键阻力。