Ethereum Reclaims a Key Level That Preceded 100%+ Rallies and Triggered Past Altseasons

Ethereum's native token, Ether ETHUSD, has reclaimed a key technical level that has historically preceded sharp price gains and marked the start of an “altseason”

The price of Ethereum (ETH) has reclaimed a key technical level that could set the stage for a sharp price gain in the coming months, according to technical analysis.

On the 2-week chart, Ethereum closed above the mid-line of the Gaussian Channel—a moving average-based band that tracks long-term momentum—for the first time since November 2023.

In 2020-2021, a move above the same technical level saw the ETH price rally from $400 to over $4,800 as it quickly advanced toward and broke above the channel’s upper band.

A similar move in late 2023 saw ETH, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, climb from below $1,500 to nearly $4,000 within a year.

As of May 2025, that upper band sat at $3,200, making it the next key resistance. A breakout above this level could open the path toward the previous cycle high of $4,100 by July.

The potential for a large ETH price rally also comes as technical analysis indicates that the altcoin market could be setting up for a massive surge in the second half of 2025.

According to market analyst Moustache, who focused on the same Gaussian Channel fractal, the combined market cap of the altcoin market, excluding Ethereum, surged by over 1,400% over a year after Ether’s close above the channel’s midline in July 2020.

Similarly, the analyst added that the altcoin market cap went up by more than 200% a year after ETH’s midline breakout in November 2023.

The prospect of a 2025 altseason is furthered by a repeating post-Bitcoin-halving pattern. In both 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin dominance dropped sharply around 400 days after the halving, triggering altcoin rallies.

With the April 2024 halving nearing the same period, a similar decline could occur within the next 100 days, according to analyst Wimar X, who expects the altcoin market cap to surge toward $15 trillion if the trend repeats.

The potential for a large increase in the altcoin market capitalization also comes as onchain data from Glassnode showed that the largest portion of ETH’s market cap—around $123 billion—is held by investors who bought between $2,300 and $2,500.

If ETH’s price drops even slightly below this range, a large number of holders would flip into a red balance, increasing the risk of panic selling and adding pressure to the market.

So while ETH is showing technical strength, its support remains shallow unless it can move further away from this cost zone.