Ethereum (ETH) Is in the Second Phase of a Three-Stage Market Cycle

Based on a chart and tweet information provided by analyst Abbé, Ethereum (ETH) is in the second phase of a three-stage market cycle.

Analyst Abbé highlighted the second phase of a three-stage market cycle that begins with a corrective period, then a recovery phase, and finally, an impulsive phase of sharp upward price behavior.

According to Abbé’s analysis, the current market cycle has already completed Phase 1 (Corrective) and entered Phase 2 (Recovery) since early 2023. Its monthly candlestick formation shows a consolidation phase in the form of a descending triangle, similar to the last cycle in 2019-2020.

The analyst stated that the final shift into an impulsive phase (Phase 3) should occur as soon as the token closes a monthly candle above the crucial resistance at $3,000. In the previous cycle, the cryptocurrency underwent a similar structural breakout after its recovery phase, leading to a decisive rally that peaked above $4,800 in late 2021.

(ETH Price Chart Credit: X Post)

Abbé anticipates a similar impulsive breakout in the current cycle. His chart projections suggest potential price levels reaching above $20,000 and beyond if the historical pattern continues.

Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader further supports the bullish view shared by fellow analyst Abbé. According to Merlijn, Ethereum (ETH) is replicating its 2017 price action, setting the stage for a potentially explosive breakout.

In a comparative chart shared on X, Merlijn highlights a “bar-for-bar” alignment between the token’s current 2025 weekly chart and its 2017 breakout structure. Both charts depict a decisive move above the 50-week moving average (50 MA) following a prolonged accumulation phase.

(ETH Price Chart Credit: X Post)

The chart showcases two nearly identical technical setups. In 2017, the altcoin broke out after reclaiming the 50 MA and consolidating slightly below major horizontal resistance. This move triggered a vertical rally that propelled the asset from around $10 to over $45 within a few weeks.

As of June 2025, the ETH token is again approaching the same type of structure, trading near $2,800 with the 50 MA acting as dynamic support. The chart shows consolidation below horizontal resistance around $4,000, mirroring the final stage before the historic 2017 breakout.

Merlijn notes that while the patterns are similar, the current market contains significantly more liquidity and volume in trades, which could amplify any upward movement. He adds that the breakout may be explosive, not only due to technical similarities but also due to better market conditions. At this stage, the cryptocurrency has a “bigger engine” and “no brakes.”

According to on-chain metrics from IntoTheBlock, whale accumulation has increased significantly in the last 30 days, further supporting this bullish structure. Whales, defined as addresses with substantial ETH balances, have accumulated +2.05%. In contrast, investor-level wallets have reduced their supply by -2.70%, shifting the supply balance towards larger holders.

(ETH Historical Concentration Credit: IntoTheBlock)

Participation by retail investors has remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of +0.02%. This shift in ownership indicates that the larger market players, often viewed as "smart money," are displaying greater confidence and preparing for a potential breakout.

This concentration of ETH supply in the hands of more aggressive traders has been linked to major price shifts in the past. It lends credence to the broader argument that Ethereum might be on the verge of entering a new impulsive phase.