Cardano (ADA) Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) Odds of Getting Regulatory Approval Before 2025 Increase to 55%

According to the latest Polymarket data, the chance of Cardano's exchange-traded fund (ETF) getting regulatory approval before 2025 has increased to 55%.

In a surprising shift, the probability of Cardano’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) getting regulatory approval before 2025 has risen to 55%, according to the latest Polymarket data.

This represents a 45% increase from the previous predictions and showcases a clear change in market sentiment towards the Cardano ETF filings.

Known for its efficient consensus mechanism and academic approach, Cardano has usually trailed behind both Bitcoin and Ethereum in ETF talks. However, the latest changes in U.S. regulatory rules for crypto ETFs are leading many to believe that ADA-based investment products may soon become available to a broader audience.

Over the past few months, predictions about whether a Cardano ETF will go ahead have gone up and down. Some people see a 30% chance, while others believe it will be closer to 60%.

Recently, the numbers have not changed much, with forecasts remaining in the middle part of the spectrum. However, the latest jump from the previous 37% to 55% shows that both analysts and investors are feeling more positive about the market.

On Polymarket, traders can bet on whether an ETF for the Cardano token will be approved by the end of 2025. Currently, “Yes” shares are available for $0.70.

This price increase indicates that a majority of traders are placing their bets on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving an ADA ETF. On the other hand, some investors are still holding onto their “No” shares, which they are selling for $0.58.

If the Cardano ETF is cleared by the end of next year, people with “Yes” shares would get $1.00, highlighting the importance of the market choice.

The pricing difference between “Yes” and “No” shares reflects divergent investor expectations but also underscores growing confidence in regulatory acceptance.

This concentration of activity seems to stem from increased interest by institutional investors. Several reports have mentioned that some large asset management firms are examining Cardano to determine its suitability for future ETFs.

This occurs as cryptocurrency-based financial products gain more acceptance, largely due to the progress made with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. Moreover, the SEC has adopted a more crypto-friendly approach after the exit of Gary Gensler and the advent of pro-crypto Paul Atkins as the new Chairman.

Atkins has vowed to draft clearer regulations for the crypto industry and has put a hold on enforcement actions. Hence, netizens believe that altcoin ETFs, such as Solana, XRP, and Cardano ETFs, could be approved owing to the change in the SEC’s stance after U.S. President Donald Trump took over the White House.