If This Happens, Bitcoin Could Surge To $100,000 By November

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of forex and digital assets research at Standard Chartered, predicts that the Bitcoin price could surge to $100,000

Standard Chartered’s head of forex and digital assets research predicts that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 ahead of the US presidential elections in November.

Geoffrey Kendrick shared his price outlook for the leading cryptocurrency in an email to The Block on Friday.

Kendrick also offered his analysis of recent regulatory decisions and their potential impact on BTC’s price trajectory.

“As we approach the US election, I expect $100,000 to be reached and then $150,000 by year-end in the case of a Trump victory,” said Kendrick. He went on to note the recent approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the Biden administration, followed by Biden vetoing efforts to repeal Secure Asset Based Stablecoin Act (SAB) 121. According to Kendrick, these actions show that Trump is still more friendly towards crypto than Biden.

The analyst further highlighted the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls data, which could influence BTC’s price movement. Favorable data, he said, might lead to a new all-time high for Bitcoin by the weekend, opening the way for $80,000 by the end of June.

Kendrick also reiterated his long-term price predictions, maintaining a year-end target of $150,000 and an end-of-2025 forecast of $200,000 per BTC. “Notably, a $150,000 price by end-2024 would see Bitcoin join the $3 trillion club in terms of market cap, following NVDA’s $3 trillion market cap which was reached yesterday,” highlighted Kendrick.

Two months ago, Standard Chartered released a research note offering a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum by the end of 2024 and beyond. The bank’s analysts projected that Bitcoin could reach $150,000, while Ethereum could hit $8,000. These projections were bolstered by the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States, which have seen massive inflows.

Kendrick and Suki Cooper explained that “rapid inflows to the new Bitcoin spot ETFs have dominated […] Most of the inflows are likely to be sticky pension-type flows,” underscoring the newfound stability in BTC investment trends.

Standard Chartered’s bullish Bitcoin valuation is based on three pivotal analyses. First, drawing parallels with the gold market’s response to the introduction of US gold ETFs, the bank estimates BTC could rise to the $200,000 level, marking a 4.3x increase from its pre-ETF price.

Second, by optimizing a portfolio with 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin at current gold prices, the analysis suggests a Bitcoin level of around $190,000. Lastly, a linear extrapolation based on the correlation between ETF inflows and BTC price points to a possible $250,000 level, assuming total ETF inflows around the bank’s midpoint estimate of $75 billion.

The bank noted that these measures suggest “that $200,000 is the ‘correct’ end-2025 price level for BTC, […] and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time.” The research further suggested that an “overshoot to $250,000 is likely at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue apace and/or reserve managers buy BTC.”

At press time, BTC was trading at $71,183.