如果这种情况发生，比特币到 11 月可能会飙升至 10 万美元

渣打银行外汇和数字资产研究主管 Geoffrey Kendrick 预测比特币价格可能飙升至 10 万美元

Standard Chartered’s head of forex and digital assets research predicts that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 ahead of the US presidential elections in November.

渣打银行外汇和数字资产研究主管预测，在 11 月份美国总统大选之前，比特币将达到 10 万美元。

Geoffrey Kendrick shared his price outlook for the leading cryptocurrency in an email to The Block on Friday.

杰弗里·肯德里克 (Geoffrey Kendrick) 在周五发给 The Block 的电子邮件中分享了他对这种领先加密货币的价格展望。

Kendrick also offered his analysis of recent regulatory decisions and their potential impact on BTC’s price trajectory.

肯德里克还分析了最近的监管决定及其对 BTC 价格轨迹的潜在影响。

“As we approach the US election, I expect $100,000 to be reached and then $150,000 by year-end in the case of a Trump victory,” said Kendrick. He went on to note the recent approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the Biden administration, followed by Biden vetoing efforts to repeal Secure Asset Based Stablecoin Act (SAB) 121. According to Kendrick, these actions show that Trump is still more friendly towards crypto than Biden.

肯德里克说：“随着美国大选临近，我预计如果特朗普获胜，到年底将达到 10 万美元，然后达到 15 万美元。”他接着指出，拜登政府最近批准了现货以太币交易所交易基金（ETF），随后拜登否决了废除基于安全资产的稳定币法案（SAB）121的努力。肯德里克表示，这些行动表明特朗普正在对加密货币仍然比拜登更友好。

The analyst further highlighted the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls data, which could influence BTC’s price movement. Favorable data, he said, might lead to a new all-time high for Bitcoin by the weekend, opening the way for $80,000 by the end of June.

该分析师进一步强调了即将发布的美国非农就业数据，这可能会影响比特币的价格走势。他表示，有利的数据可能会导致比特币在周末创下历史新高，为 6 月底达到 80,000 美元奠定基础。

Kendrick also reiterated his long-term price predictions, maintaining a year-end target of $150,000 and an end-of-2025 forecast of $200,000 per BTC. “Notably, a $150,000 price by end-2024 would see Bitcoin join the $3 trillion club in terms of market cap, following NVDA’s $3 trillion market cap which was reached yesterday,” highlighted Kendrick.

Kendrick 还重申了他的长期价格预测，维持年底目标为 150,000 美元，2025 年底预测为每 BTC 200,000 美元。 Kendrick 强调说：“值得注意的是，继 NVDA 昨天达到 3 万亿美元市值之后，到 2024 年底，比特币价格将达到 15 万美元，届时比特币市值将跻身 3 万亿美元俱乐部。”

Two months ago, Standard Chartered released a research note offering a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum by the end of 2024 and beyond. The bank’s analysts projected that Bitcoin could reach $150,000, while Ethereum could hit $8,000. These projections were bolstered by the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States, which have seen massive inflows.

两个月前，渣打银行发布了一份研究报告，对 2024 年底及以后的比特币和以太坊前景持乐观态度。该银行分析师预计，比特币可能会达到 15 万美元，而以太坊可能会达到 8,000 美元。这些预测得到了美国比特币现货 ETF 的推出的支持，该ETF已经吸引了大量资金流入。

Kendrick and Suki Cooper explained that “rapid inflows to the new Bitcoin spot ETFs have dominated […] Most of the inflows are likely to be sticky pension-type flows,” underscoring the newfound stability in BTC investment trends.

Kendrick 和 Suki Cooper 解释说，“新的比特币现货 ETF 的快速流入主导了……大部分流入可能是粘性养老金类型的资金流”，这突显了 BTC 投资趋势的新稳定性。

Standard Chartered’s bullish Bitcoin valuation is based on three pivotal analyses. First, drawing parallels with the gold market’s response to the introduction of US gold ETFs, the bank estimates BTC could rise to the $200,000 level, marking a 4.3x increase from its pre-ETF price.

渣打银行对比特币的看涨估值基于三项关键分析。首先，与黄金市场对美国黄金 ETF 推出的反应相似，该银行估计 BTC 可能会升至 20 万美元的水平，较 ETF 上市前的价格上涨 4.3 倍。

Second, by optimizing a portfolio with 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin at current gold prices, the analysis suggests a Bitcoin level of around $190,000. Lastly, a linear extrapolation based on the correlation between ETF inflows and BTC price points to a possible $250,000 level, assuming total ETF inflows around the bank’s midpoint estimate of $75 billion.

其次，通过以当前金价优化包含 80% 黄金和 20% 比特币的投资组合，分析表明比特币水平约为 190,000 美元。最后，假设 ETF 总流入量约为银行预估的 750 亿美元中值，则根据 ETF 流入量与 BTC 价格之间的相关性进行线性推断，可能达到 25 万美元的水平。

The bank noted that these measures suggest “that $200,000 is the ‘correct’ end-2025 price level for BTC, […] and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time.” The research further suggested that an “overshoot to $250,000 is likely at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue apace and/or reserve managers buy BTC.”

该银行指出，这些措施表明“200,000 美元是 2025 年底 BTC 的‘正确’价格水平，[…]并且它可能是当时横盘交易区间的新中点。”该研究进一步表明，“如果 ETF 资金继续快速流入和/或储备经理购买 BTC，那么 2025 年某个时候，价格可能会突破 25 万美元。”

At press time, BTC was trading at $71,183.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 71,183 美元。