From belief to verification 1

Aircraft In 1903, the Wright brothers made the first successful powered flight. Around the 1920s, aircraft began to be used for airmail, military and small-scale passenger transport. It really became a common means of transportation for the general public after the jet airliner era in the 1950s. In other words, it took about 45 to 55 years from invention to widespread acceptance. Cars In 1886, Carl Benz invented the modern car. In 1908, Henry Ford launched the Model T, which significantly reduced costs through assembly line production. By the 1920s, it was very common for American families to own cars; after World War II, Europe and the United States basically entered the automobile society. It takes about 30 to 40 years from invention to popularization. However, new technologies are spreading much faster today than they were 100 years ago. Research by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) shows that the diffusion rate of modern technology is generally accelerating. Let’s look at BTC again. If we count from the genesis block in 2009, it has been about 17 years now. I think the development of BTC can be divided into several stages: 2009-2013: Experimental stage. 2013-2020: Speculation and early adoption phase. 2020-2026: Institutional adoption phase. Listed companies, ETFs, some countries and sovereign institutions have begun to allocate BTC, and the market infrastructure is obviously mature. If we follow the technology diffusion theory (Innovators→Early Adopters→Early Majority→Late Majority), I believe that as of 2026, BTC will be roughly in the transition stage from "early adopters" to "early majority", rather than having already entered universal popularity. This judgment is also basically consistent with many academic studies and industry observations.