如果這種情況發生，比特幣到 11 月可能會飆升至 10 萬美元

渣打銀行外匯和數位資產研究主管 Geoffrey Kendrick 預測比特幣價格可能會飆升至 10 萬美元

Standard Chartered’s head of forex and digital assets research predicts that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 ahead of the US presidential elections in November.

渣打銀行外匯和數位資產研究主管預測，在 11 月美國總統大選之前，比特幣將達到 10 萬美元。

Geoffrey Kendrick shared his price outlook for the leading cryptocurrency in an email to The Block on Friday.

傑弗裡·肯德里克 (Geoffrey Kendrick) 在周五發給 The Block 的電子郵件中分享了他對這種領先加密貨幣的價格展望。

Kendrick also offered his analysis of recent regulatory decisions and their potential impact on BTC’s price trajectory.

肯德里克還分析了最近的監管決定及其對比特幣價格軌蹟的潛在影響。

“As we approach the US election, I expect $100,000 to be reached and then $150,000 by year-end in the case of a Trump victory,” said Kendrick. He went on to note the recent approval of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the Biden administration, followed by Biden vetoing efforts to repeal Secure Asset Based Stablecoin Act (SAB) 121. According to Kendrick, these actions show that Trump is still more friendly towards crypto than Biden.

肯德里克說：“隨著美國大選臨近，我預計如果川普獲勝，到年底將達到 10 萬美元，然後達到 15 萬美元。”他接著指出，拜登政府最近批准了現貨以太幣交易所交易基金（ETF），隨後拜登否決了廢除基於安全資產的穩定幣法案（SAB）121的努力。朗普正在對加密貨幣仍然比拜登更友好。

The analyst further highlighted the upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls data, which could influence BTC’s price movement. Favorable data, he said, might lead to a new all-time high for Bitcoin by the weekend, opening the way for $80,000 by the end of June.

該分析師進一步強調了即將發布的美國非農業就業數據，這可能會影響比特幣的價格走勢。他表示，有利的數據可能會導致比特幣在周末創下歷史新高，為 6 月底達到 8 萬美元奠定基礎。

Kendrick also reiterated his long-term price predictions, maintaining a year-end target of $150,000 and an end-of-2025 forecast of $200,000 per BTC. “Notably, a $150,000 price by end-2024 would see Bitcoin join the $3 trillion club in terms of market cap, following NVDA’s $3 trillion market cap which was reached yesterday,” highlighted Kendrick.

Kendrick 也重申了他的長期價格預測，維持年底目標為 15 萬美元，2025 年底預測為每 BTC 20 萬美元。 Kendrick 強調：“值得注意的是，繼 NVDA 昨天達到 3 兆美元市值之後，到 2024 年底，比特幣價格將達到 15 萬美元，屆時比特幣市值將躋身 3 兆美元俱樂部。”

Two months ago, Standard Chartered released a research note offering a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum by the end of 2024 and beyond. The bank’s analysts projected that Bitcoin could reach $150,000, while Ethereum could hit $8,000. These projections were bolstered by the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States, which have seen massive inflows.

兩個月前，渣打銀行發布了一份研究報告，對 2024 年底及以後的比特幣和以太坊前景持樂觀態度。該銀行分析師預計，比特幣可能達到 15 萬美元，而以太坊可能會達到 8,000 美元。這些預測得到了美國比特幣現貨 ETF 的推出的支持，該ETF已經吸引了大量資金流入。

Kendrick and Suki Cooper explained that “rapid inflows to the new Bitcoin spot ETFs have dominated […] Most of the inflows are likely to be sticky pension-type flows,” underscoring the newfound stability in BTC investment trends.

Kendrick 和 Suki Cooper 解釋說，“新的比特幣現貨 ETF 的快速流入主導了…大部分流入可能是黏性退休金類型的資金流”，這凸顯了 BTC 投資趨勢的新穩定性。

Standard Chartered’s bullish Bitcoin valuation is based on three pivotal analyses. First, drawing parallels with the gold market’s response to the introduction of US gold ETFs, the bank estimates BTC could rise to the $200,000 level, marking a 4.3x increase from its pre-ETF price.

渣打銀行對比特幣的看漲估值是基於三個關鍵分析。首先，與黃金市場對美國黃金 ETF 推出的反應相似，該銀行估計 BTC 可能會升至 20 萬美元的水平，較 ETF 上市前的價格上漲 4.3 倍。

Second, by optimizing a portfolio with 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin at current gold prices, the analysis suggests a Bitcoin level of around $190,000. Lastly, a linear extrapolation based on the correlation between ETF inflows and BTC price points to a possible $250,000 level, assuming total ETF inflows around the bank’s midpoint estimate of $75 billion.

其次，透過以當前金價優化包含 80% 黃金和 20% 比特幣的投資組合，分析表明比特幣水平約為 190,000 美元。最後，假設 ETF 總流入量約為銀行預估的 750 億美元中位數，則根據 ETF 流入量與 BTC 價格之間的相關性進行線性推斷，可能達到 25 萬美元的水平。

The bank noted that these measures suggest “that $200,000 is the ‘correct’ end-2025 price level for BTC, […] and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time.” The research further suggested that an “overshoot to $250,000 is likely at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue apace and/or reserve managers buy BTC.”

該銀行指出，這些措施表明“200,000 美元是 2025 年底 BTC 的‘正確’價格水平，[…]並且它可能是當時橫盤交易區間的新中點。”該研究進一步表明，“如果 ETF 資金繼續快速流入和/或儲備經理購買 BTC，那麼 2025 年某個時候，價格可能會突破 25 萬美元。”

At press time, BTC was trading at $71,183.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 71,183 美元。