Bitcoin prices touched $67,100 on Tuesday before retreating, as the market digested the recent halving event. The consolidation above $67,100 could potentially lead to a rise to the $72,000-$74,000 range, while a downside reversal may result in a rollback to $60,000. Post-halving, Bitcoin's supply growth has fallen below that of gold, contributing to the bullish sentiment among crypto investors.
Bitcoin's Meteoric Rise Continues, Halving Event Spurs Optimism
In the face of market volatility, Bitcoin's upward trajectory remains undeterred. Early Tuesday morning, the cryptocurrency briefly surpassed $67,100, testing the 50-day moving average before retreating slightly. According to Alex Kuptsikevich, an analyst at broker FxPro, this calm may be deceptive and could swiftly dissipate. He emphasizes that consolidation above $67,100 could pave the way for a surge to the $72,000 to $74,000 range, while a downside reversal could swiftly lead to a retracement to the $60,000 area.
The market is still processing Bitcoin's halving event last Friday, a pre-determined alteration to the crypto's monetary policy that halves the issuance of new tokens. This adjustment has further escalated Bitcoin's scarcity, placing it on par with gold, a commodity often touted as "digital gold." Gold prices have recently receded from record highs, with gold futures experiencing their steepest dollar decline since 2021 on Monday and shedding another 1% on Tuesday.
Yassine Elmandjra, director of digital assets at asset manager ARK, notes that the supply growth of Bitcoin has "halved" for the fourth time in history, decreasing from ~1.8% at an annual rate to ~0.9%. Consequently, Bitcoin's supply growth has fallen below that of gold, estimated to be ~1.7% in 2023, on a long-term basis.
Crypto enthusiasts are optimistic that limiting the supply of new Bitcoin, coupled with soaring demand from new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), will propel prices even higher. Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited strong performance leading up to halving events and in the subsequent months. However, some analysts caution that the recent halving witnessed an extraordinary outperformance, which could potentially set the stage for disappointment.
Elmandjra emphasizes that Bitcoin's halving has occurred during prolonged bull market runs since its inception 15 years ago. While past performance is not a guarantee of future results, in the 12 months following the three previous halvings, Bitcoin's price has appreciated by a staggering range of ~285% to ~8,478.2%, averaging ~3,108%.
Beyond Bitcoin, Ether – the second-largest crypto by market cap – dipped 1% to $3,170. Smaller tokens experienced gains, with Solana rising 1% and Ripple advancing 3%. Memecoins faced weakness, with Dogecoin and Shiba Inu each declining 1%.
