Bitcoin (BTC) surged nearly 3% today. Can it keep rising and surpass $100,000? The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is a key catalyst.

On Wednesday, May 7, Bitcoin(BTC) jumped almost 3%, reaching a high of $97732. It is close to the May 2 high of $98,000.

Bitcoin price today, May 7: BTC climbs almost 3% as it nears $100,000 amid upcoming Fed rate decision

Bitcoin (BTC) price rose almost 3% on Wednesday, May 7, trading above $97,732 at the time of writing. It is now nearing the May 2 high of $98,000.

Since April 23, Bitcoin has been forming an ‘ascending triangle’ pattern, a typical bullish signal that could break upward at any time.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet at 2 AM Thursday to vote on interest rates, which could be the catalyst for Bitcoin’s breakout.

LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger told TradingKey that the market is anticipating the FOMC verdict as a pivotal factor in the next stage of the market.

“The market is looking for the FOMC decision as a key catalyst for the next leg of the move. We could get another leg up if the Fed cuts rates by 25 bps, which has a low probability, or if they keep rates unchanged, which is the high probability outcome.”

Due to Bitcoin’s recent low volatility, we may see significant price swings after the FOMC meeting, K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde noted.

“We’re currently seeing low levels of realised volatility and high levels of implied volatility, which indicates that options traders are pricing in more volatility than what has been realised in recent price action.”

Lunde also mentioned that the current negative perpetual contract funding rate might present a buying opportunity for investors.

“Whenever we see this type of setup, where the price is able to hold despite negative funding in the futures market for an extended period, it can be a signal that there is strong demand at these levels, which could lead to a bullish breakout.”

It’s worth noting that the chance of a rate cut by the Fed is very low. According to CME data, the market sees only a 1.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.3%.

If that happens, the likelihood of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 is small. Even if it breaks that level, it may struggle to hold. But if the Fed cuts rates more than expected, Bitcoin could strengthen further.

Bitcoin price trend chart, source: TradingView.