Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: STH Risk Appetite And ETF Flows May Dictate Next Move

Bitcoin is showing remarkable strength as it pushes higher despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty.

The sustainability of the crypto rally depends partly on the behavior of short-term holders (STH) and ETF speculators, according to top analyst Axel Adler.

According to the latest data from Glass Node, the STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has not yet crossed the “green” threshold of one standard deviation (+1 STDV).

Historically, this level has been associated with the beginning of a “super rally,” a phase in which prices typically surge rapidly until STH holders begin to take profit.

In previous rallies of this cycle, Bitcoin (BTC) usually rose an average of 46% above the +1 STDV line. If we apply this statistic to today’s data, we can project a potential high near $154,000.

However, considering the current late-stage environment and the potential selling pressure from ETF speculators who entered around $84,000, Adler anticipates selling to begin a bit sooner, perhaps around $126,000.

While STH holders may be indifferent to higher prices, the risk appetite of ETF speculators could be the limiting factor. Their exits may ultimately trigger the next correction, highlighting the importance of strong buying volume to sustain the breakout.

As Bitcoin pushes to new highs amid surging Treasury yields and macroeconomic uncertainty, it will be interesting to see how both groups react and whether this breakout can transform into a sustained, high-momentum bull phase.