比特币（BTC）价格预测：STH风险食欲和ETF流量可能决定下一步

尽管宏观经济不确定性上升，比特币表现出显着的强度，因为它越来越高。

The sustainability of the crypto rally depends partly on the behavior of short-term holders (STH) and ETF speculators, according to top analyst Axel Adler.

根据顶级分析师Axel Adler的说法，加密集会的可持续性部分取决于短期持有人（STH）和ETF投机者的行为。

According to the latest data from Glass Node, the STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has not yet crossed the “green” threshold of one standard deviation (+1 STDV).

根据Glass节点的最新数据，STH MVRV（市场价值与已实现的价值）尚未超过一个标准偏差（+1 STDV）的“绿色”阈值。

Historically, this level has been associated with the beginning of a “super rally,” a phase in which prices typically surge rapidly until STH holders begin to take profit.

从历史上看，这个水平与“超级集会”的开始有关，在这个阶段，价格通常会迅速上涨，直到STH持有人开始获利为止。

In previous rallies of this cycle, Bitcoin (BTC) usually rose an average of 46% above the +1 STDV line. If we apply this statistic to today’s data, we can project a potential high near $154,000.

在此周期的先前集会中，比特币（BTC）通常比+1 STDV线平均上升46％。如果我们将此统计数据应用于当今的数据，我们可以将潜在的高价近154,000美元投影。

However, considering the current late-stage environment and the potential selling pressure from ETF speculators who entered around $84,000, Adler anticipates selling to begin a bit sooner, perhaps around $126,000.

但是，考虑到目前的后期环境以及进入约84,000美元左右的ETF投机者的潜在销售压力，Adler预计销售会更早开始，也许约为126,000美元。

While STH holders may be indifferent to higher prices, the risk appetite of ETF speculators could be the limiting factor. Their exits may ultimately trigger the next correction, highlighting the importance of strong buying volume to sustain the breakout.

尽管STH持有人可能对更高的价格无关紧要，但ETF投机者的风险可能是限制因素。他们的出口最终可能会触发下一次更正，强调了强大购买量以维持突破的重要性。

As Bitcoin pushes to new highs amid surging Treasury yields and macroeconomic uncertainty, it will be interesting to see how both groups react and whether this breakout can transform into a sustained, high-momentum bull phase.

随着比特币在国库产量和宏观经济不确定性的迅速发展中，比特币将新的高潮推向新高，很有趣的是，这两组如何反应以及这种突破是否可以转变为持续的高弹药阶段。