Bitcoin's price dipped, but options analysis suggests the long-term trend remains bullish. Key support levels and market momentum are crucial to watch.
Bitcoin Price Wobbles: Options Analysis Points to Bullish Undercurrent Despite Dip
Bitcoin's recent pullback from the $118K range to the $113K level has some investors on edge. However, a deeper look at options data and key technical indicators suggests that the overall bullish trend may still be intact. Let's dive into the factors influencing Bitcoin's price and what the experts are saying.
Key Support Levels and Market Momentum
Despite the short-term weakness, Bitcoin is still trading well above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key indicator of long-term uptrends. The recent dip broke below the $115K–$116K support zone, but analysts are eyeing crucial support levels that could signal a continuation of the bullish trend.
According to cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler, the $112,000 level is currently a critical support area. A break below this level could lead to the price testing $110,000, with $108,000 acting as psychological support. Adler also notes that a decline in 30-day momentum to 3% indicates a weakening uptrend, while a rebound above 8–10% could signal buyers re-entering the market.
Options Market Insights: Bearish Positions Weakening?
Adler's analysis of the Bitcoin options market reveals interesting insights. The Maximum Loss price for the August 8, 2025, expiration date is at $118,000, which could act as a magnet for price action as we approach that date. More importantly, the sharp decline in option selling volume at levels above $110,000 suggests that bearish positions are weakening. This could indicate a shift in sentiment and a potential for upward price movement.
Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios: What to Watch For
While the long-term trend remains bullish, it's crucial to consider both bull and bear scenarios. Key buy zones to watch include the $112,000 – $111,000 zone (a confluence of the 50-SMA and recent structure) and the $100,000 – $99,280 zone (strong psychological and structural support backed by the 200-SMA). An extreme bear scenario could see Bitcoin dropping to $75,000, representing a 35% drawdown from the recent top.
External Factors and Institutional Activity
External risks, such as weak employment data and rising trade tariffs, have played a role in the recent market correction. However, major companies like Coinbase and Tether, along with institutional strategy funds, have made significant Bitcoin purchases, indicating continued confidence in the cryptocurrency's long-term potential. Coin outflows from exchanges also continue, suggesting that investors are moving their Bitcoin into long-term storage.
The Bottom Line: Stay Calm and Hodl On?
Bitcoin's price may be experiencing some turbulence, but the underlying fundamentals remain strong. Options analysis suggests that bearish positions are weakening, and key support levels are holding. As long as Bitcoin stays above the $112,000 – $111,000 zone, the bullish trend is likely to continue. So, take a deep breath, keep an eye on those charts, and remember: in the world of crypto, a little volatility is just part of the fun!
