比特幣（BTC）價格預測：STH風險食慾和ETF流量可能決定下一步

儘管宏觀經濟不確定性上升，比特幣表現出顯著的強度，因為它越來越高。

The sustainability of the crypto rally depends partly on the behavior of short-term holders (STH) and ETF speculators, according to top analyst Axel Adler.

根據頂級分析師Axel Adler的說法，加密集會的可持續性部分取決於短期持有人（STH）和ETF投機者的行為。

According to the latest data from Glass Node, the STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio has not yet crossed the “green” threshold of one standard deviation (+1 STDV).

根據Glass節點的最新數據，STH MVRV（市場價值與已實現的價值）尚未超過一個標準偏差（+1 STDV）的“綠色”閾值。

Historically, this level has been associated with the beginning of a “super rally,” a phase in which prices typically surge rapidly until STH holders begin to take profit.

從歷史上看，這個水平與“超級集會”的開始有關，在這個階段，價格通常會迅速上漲，直到STH持有人開始獲利為止。

In previous rallies of this cycle, Bitcoin (BTC) usually rose an average of 46% above the +1 STDV line. If we apply this statistic to today’s data, we can project a potential high near $154,000.

在此週期的先前集會中，比特幣（BTC）通常比+1 STDV線平均上升46％。如果我們將此統計數據應用於當今的數據，我們可以將潛在的高價近154,000美元投影。

However, considering the current late-stage environment and the potential selling pressure from ETF speculators who entered around $84,000, Adler anticipates selling to begin a bit sooner, perhaps around $126,000.

但是，考慮到目前的後期環境以及進入約84,000美元左右的ETF投機者的潛在銷售壓力，Adler預計銷售會更早開始，也許約為126,000美元。

While STH holders may be indifferent to higher prices, the risk appetite of ETF speculators could be the limiting factor. Their exits may ultimately trigger the next correction, highlighting the importance of strong buying volume to sustain the breakout.

儘管STH持有人可能對更高的價格無關緊要，但ETF投機者的風險可能是限制因素。他們的出口最終可能會觸發下一次更正，強調了強大購買量以維持突破的重要性。

As Bitcoin pushes to new highs amid surging Treasury yields and macroeconomic uncertainty, it will be interesting to see how both groups react and whether this breakout can transform into a sustained, high-momentum bull phase.

隨著比特幣在國庫產量和宏觀經濟不確定性的迅速發展中，比特幣將新的高潮推向新高，很有趣的是，這兩組如何反應以及這種突破是否可以轉變為持續的高彈藥階段。