Bitcoin to $3.4 Million? Arthur Hayes Bets on Trump, the Fed, and Yield Curve Control

Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin could skyrocket to $3.4 million by 2028 if Trump influences the Fed to adopt yield curve control. Here's the breakdown.

Hold onto your hats, folks! Arthur Hayes, the crypto billionaire and BitMEX co-founder, is making some seriously bold predictions about Bitcoin, the Fed, and a potential Trump comeback. Buckle up, because this could get wild.

Hayes's Big Bet: Bitcoin as the Ultimate Hedge

Hayes is forecasting that Bitcoin could reach a staggering $3.4 million by 2028. How? He's betting on a perfect storm of factors, including the Federal Reserve potentially adopting yield curve control (YCC) under a Trump administration. He thinks this could lead to a massive injection of new credit into the economy – possibly $15 trillion!

His reasoning? Hayes points to historical precedent, specifically the 1940s, when the Fed capped bond yields to finance massive spending cycles, triggering intense credit growth. He believes that if Trump “stacks” the Fed board with allies and launches a “World War II-scale monetary expansion” to aggressively buy bonds, Bitcoin will become the ultimate hedge against dollar debasement.

The $3.4 Million Math

Hayes’s calculations are based on a quantitative model that links Bitcoin’s price to US credit growth. Analyzing post-pandemic and WWII periods, he applies a metric of 0.19% BTC price growth for every additional dollar of credit expansion observed in recent cycles.

He sees Trump’s fiscal agenda and the Fed’s new “third mandate,” adding yield stability to its objectives, as the institutional trigger for YCC and rapid money supply growth.

According to Hayes, if the Fed injects $15.2 trillion in new credit by 2028, the math targets a $3.4 million BTC, with digital assets absorbing liquidity from global institutions hedging unprecedented fiat expansion.

Not Everyone's Buying It

Of course, such a bold prediction isn't without its skeptics. Some, like Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch, dismiss liquidity-driven price projections as “useless banana,” pointing to bitcoin’s supply inelasticity as limiting long-term inflation. But others acknowledge that global liquidity and macro volatility can indeed drive major BTC adoption cycles.

The Asian Angle

Interestingly, recent crypto market data shows that cumulative returns in the Asian session are outpacing those in the U.S. and EU. Regulatory clarity in Hong Kong is boosting institutional and stablecoin adoption. While institutional flows remain dominant in the U.S. and EU, Asian markets are more retail-driven, bringing higher volatility and a stronger speculative element, potentially amplifying the Bitcoin bull run.

So, What's the Takeaway?

Hayes's forecast, while speculative, highlights the potential impact of monetary policy and political shifts on Bitcoin. Markets remain focused on Fed board appointments, emerging Treasury programs, and signals of Republican fiscal policy as key leading indicators. Near term, BTC trades near $115,000, with volatility spikes tied to political headlines and Fed guidance. Institutional allocators continue to ramp up crypto exposure, tracking the macro thesis that now animates Hayes’s bold forecasts.

The Bottom Line

Will Bitcoin really hit $3.4 million? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: the intersection of crypto, monetary policy, and political maneuvering is going to be a wild ride. So buckle up, grab some popcorn, and enjoy the show. It’s gonna be… interesting.