比特币至340万美元？亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）押注特朗普，美联储和收益曲线控制

亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测，如果特朗普影响美联储通过收益曲线控制，那么到2028年，比特币可能会飙升至340万美元。这是故障。

Hold onto your hats, folks! Arthur Hayes, the crypto billionaire and BitMEX co-founder, is making some seriously bold predictions about Bitcoin, the Fed, and a potential Trump comeback. Buckle up, because this could get wild.

抓住你的帽子，伙计们！加密亿万富翁和Bitmex联合创始人亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）对比特币，美联储和潜在的特朗普卷土重来做出了一些大胆的预测。系好，因为这可能会变得疯狂。

Hayes's Big Bet: Bitcoin as the Ultimate Hedge

海耶斯的大赌注：比特币是最终的树篱

Hayes is forecasting that Bitcoin could reach a staggering $3.4 million by 2028. How? He's betting on a perfect storm of factors, including the Federal Reserve potentially adopting yield curve control (YCC) under a Trump administration. He thinks this could lead to a massive injection of new credit into the economy – possibly $15 trillion!

海耶斯预测，到2028年，比特币将达到惊人的340万美元。如何？他押注了一场完美的因素风暴，其中包括在特朗普政府下采用收益曲线控制（YCC）的美联储。他认为，这可能会导致经济中大量注入新的信贷 - 可能是15万亿美元！

His reasoning? Hayes points to historical precedent, specifically the 1940s, when the Fed capped bond yields to finance massive spending cycles, triggering intense credit growth. He believes that if Trump “stacks” the Fed board with allies and launches a “World War II-scale monetary expansion” to aggressively buy bonds, Bitcoin will become the ultimate hedge against dollar debasement.

他的理由？海耶斯指出了历史先例，特别是1940年代，当时美联储限制了债券收益率，以资助大量的支出周期，从而引发了巨大的信用增长。他认为，如果特朗普与盟友“堆叠”美联储董事会，并发起“第二次世界大战规模的货币扩张”以积极购买债券，比特币将成为抵抗美元贬低的最终对冲。

The $3.4 Million Math

这笔340万美元的数学

Hayes’s calculations are based on a quantitative model that links Bitcoin’s price to US credit growth. Analyzing post-pandemic and WWII periods, he applies a metric of 0.19% BTC price growth for every additional dollar of credit expansion observed in recent cycles.

海耶斯的计算基于一个定量模型，该模型将比特币的价格与美国信贷增长联系起来。在分析大流行后和第二次世界大战期，他对最近周期中观察到的每增加一美元的信贷扩张的BTC价格增长率为0.19％。

He sees Trump’s fiscal agenda and the Fed’s new “third mandate,” adding yield stability to its objectives, as the institutional trigger for YCC and rapid money supply growth.

他认为特朗普的财政议程和美联储的新“第三任务”，增加了目标的稳定性，这是YCC和快速货币供应增长的机构触发。

According to Hayes, if the Fed injects $15.2 trillion in new credit by 2028, the math targets a $3.4 million BTC, with digital assets absorbing liquidity from global institutions hedging unprecedented fiat expansion.

根据海斯的说法，如果美联储在2028年注入15.2万亿美元的新信贷，则该数学的目标是340万美元的BTC，数字资产吸收了全球机构的流动性，从而对冲独立的FIAT扩张。

Not Everyone's Buying It

不是每个人都在买它

Of course, such a bold prediction isn't without its skeptics. Some, like Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch, dismiss liquidity-driven price projections as “useless banana,” pointing to bitcoin’s supply inelasticity as limiting long-term inflation. But others acknowledge that global liquidity and macro volatility can indeed drive major BTC adoption cycles.

当然，这样一个大胆的预测并非没有怀疑论者。有些人，例如Bitwise的Andre Dragosch，将流动性驱动的价格预测视为“无用的香蕉”，指出比特币的供应不弹性限制了长期通货膨胀。但是其他人则承认，全球流动性和宏观波动确实可以推动BTC的主要采用周期。

The Asian Angle

亚洲角度

Interestingly, recent crypto market data shows that cumulative returns in the Asian session are outpacing those in the U.S. and EU. Regulatory clarity in Hong Kong is boosting institutional and stablecoin adoption. While institutional flows remain dominant in the U.S. and EU, Asian markets are more retail-driven, bringing higher volatility and a stronger speculative element, potentially amplifying the Bitcoin bull run.

有趣的是，最近的加密货币市场数据显示，亚洲会议中的累计回报超过了美国和欧盟的收益。香港的监管清晰度正在促进制度和稳定的采用。尽管机构流在美国和欧盟仍然占主导地位，但亚洲市场却更具零售业为导向，带来了更高的波动性和更强大的投机性元素，可能会扩大比特币公牛的运行。

So, What's the Takeaway?

那么，收获是什么？

Hayes's forecast, while speculative, highlights the potential impact of monetary policy and political shifts on Bitcoin. Markets remain focused on Fed board appointments, emerging Treasury programs, and signals of Republican fiscal policy as key leading indicators. Near term, BTC trades near $115,000, with volatility spikes tied to political headlines and Fed guidance. Institutional allocators continue to ramp up crypto exposure, tracking the macro thesis that now animates Hayes’s bold forecasts.

海斯的预测虽然投机性，但凸显了货币政策和政治转变对比特币的潜在影响。市场仍然专注于美联储董事会任命，新兴的国库计划以及共和党财政政策的信号作为主要指标。 BTC的近期交易价格接近115,000美元，与政治头条新闻相关并提供指导。机构分配者继续增加加密货币的暴露，跟踪宏观论文，这些论点现在使海斯大胆的预测动画。

The Bottom Line

底线

Will Bitcoin really hit $3.4 million? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: the intersection of crypto, monetary policy, and political maneuvering is going to be a wild ride. So buckle up, grab some popcorn, and enjoy the show. It’s gonna be… interesting.

比特币真的达到340万美元吗？只有时间会证明。但是可以肯定的是：加密货币政策和政治操纵的交集将是一次疯狂的旅程。因此，搭扣，抓一些爆米花，享受节目。这会……有趣。