比特幣至340萬美元？亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）押注特朗普，美聯儲和收益曲線控制

亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）預測，如果特朗普影響美聯儲通過收益曲線控制，那麼到2028年，比特幣可能會飆升至340萬美元。這是故障。

Hold onto your hats, folks! Arthur Hayes, the crypto billionaire and BitMEX co-founder, is making some seriously bold predictions about Bitcoin, the Fed, and a potential Trump comeback. Buckle up, because this could get wild.

抓住你的帽子，伙計們！加密億萬富翁和Bitmex聯合創始人亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）對比特幣，美聯儲和潛在的特朗普捲土重來做出了一些大膽的預測。係好，因為這可能會變得瘋狂。

Hayes's Big Bet: Bitcoin as the Ultimate Hedge

海耶斯的大賭注：比特幣是最終的樹籬

Hayes is forecasting that Bitcoin could reach a staggering $3.4 million by 2028. How? He's betting on a perfect storm of factors, including the Federal Reserve potentially adopting yield curve control (YCC) under a Trump administration. He thinks this could lead to a massive injection of new credit into the economy – possibly $15 trillion!

海耶斯預測，到2028年，比特幣將達到驚人的340萬美元。如何？他押注了一場完美的因素風暴，其中包括在特朗普政府下採用收益曲線控制（YCC）的美聯儲。他認為，這可能會導致經濟中大量注入新的信貸 - 可能是15萬億美元！

His reasoning? Hayes points to historical precedent, specifically the 1940s, when the Fed capped bond yields to finance massive spending cycles, triggering intense credit growth. He believes that if Trump “stacks” the Fed board with allies and launches a “World War II-scale monetary expansion” to aggressively buy bonds, Bitcoin will become the ultimate hedge against dollar debasement.

他的理由？海耶斯指出了歷史先例，特別是1940年代，當時美聯儲限制了債券收益率，以資助大量的支出週期，從而引發了巨大的信用增長。他認為，如果特朗普與盟友“堆疊”美聯儲董事會，並發起“第二次世界大戰規模的貨幣擴張”以積極購買債券，比特幣將成為抵抗美元貶低的最終對沖。

The $3.4 Million Math

這筆340萬美元的數學

Hayes’s calculations are based on a quantitative model that links Bitcoin’s price to US credit growth. Analyzing post-pandemic and WWII periods, he applies a metric of 0.19% BTC price growth for every additional dollar of credit expansion observed in recent cycles.

海耶斯的計算基於一個定量模型，該模型將比特幣的價格與美國信貸增長聯繫起來。在分析大流行後和第二次世界大戰期，他對最近週期中觀察到的每增加一美元的信貸擴張的BTC價格增長率為0.19％。

He sees Trump’s fiscal agenda and the Fed’s new “third mandate,” adding yield stability to its objectives, as the institutional trigger for YCC and rapid money supply growth.

他認為特朗普的財政議程和美聯儲的新“第三任務”，增加了目標的穩定性，這是YCC和快速貨幣供應增長的機構觸發。

According to Hayes, if the Fed injects $15.2 trillion in new credit by 2028, the math targets a $3.4 million BTC, with digital assets absorbing liquidity from global institutions hedging unprecedented fiat expansion.

根據海斯的說法，如果美聯儲在2028年註入15.2萬億美元的新信貸，則該數學的目標是340萬美元的BTC，數字資產吸收了全球機構的流動性，從而對沖獨立的FIAT擴張。

Not Everyone's Buying It

不是每個人都在買它

Of course, such a bold prediction isn't without its skeptics. Some, like Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch, dismiss liquidity-driven price projections as “useless banana,” pointing to bitcoin’s supply inelasticity as limiting long-term inflation. But others acknowledge that global liquidity and macro volatility can indeed drive major BTC adoption cycles.

當然，這樣一個大膽的預測並非沒有懷疑論者。有些人，例如Bitwise的Andre Dragosch，將流動性驅動的價格預測視為“無用的香蕉”，指出比特幣的供應不彈性限制了長期通貨膨脹。但是其他人則承認，全球流動性和宏觀波動確實可以推動BTC的主要採用周期。

The Asian Angle

亞洲角度

Interestingly, recent crypto market data shows that cumulative returns in the Asian session are outpacing those in the U.S. and EU. Regulatory clarity in Hong Kong is boosting institutional and stablecoin adoption. While institutional flows remain dominant in the U.S. and EU, Asian markets are more retail-driven, bringing higher volatility and a stronger speculative element, potentially amplifying the Bitcoin bull run.

有趣的是，最近的加密貨幣市場數據顯示，亞洲會議中的累計回報超過了美國和歐盟的收益。香港的監管清晰度正在促進制度和穩定的採用。儘管機構流在美國和歐盟仍然占主導地位，但亞洲市場卻更具零售業為導向，帶來了更高的波動性和更強大的投機性元素，可能會擴大比特幣公牛的運行。

So, What's the Takeaway?

那麼，收穫是什麼？

Hayes's forecast, while speculative, highlights the potential impact of monetary policy and political shifts on Bitcoin. Markets remain focused on Fed board appointments, emerging Treasury programs, and signals of Republican fiscal policy as key leading indicators. Near term, BTC trades near $115,000, with volatility spikes tied to political headlines and Fed guidance. Institutional allocators continue to ramp up crypto exposure, tracking the macro thesis that now animates Hayes’s bold forecasts.

海斯的預測雖然投機性，但凸顯了貨幣政策和政治轉變對比特幣的潛在影響。市場仍然專注於美聯儲董事會任命，新興的國庫計劃以及共和黨財政政策的信號作為主要指標。 BTC的近期交易價格接近115,000美元，與政治頭條新聞相關並提供指導。機構分配者繼續增加加密貨幣的暴露，跟踪宏觀論文，這些論點現在使海斯大膽的預測動畫。

The Bottom Line

底線

Will Bitcoin really hit $3.4 million? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: the intersection of crypto, monetary policy, and political maneuvering is going to be a wild ride. So buckle up, grab some popcorn, and enjoy the show. It’s gonna be… interesting.

比特幣真的達到340萬美元嗎？只有時間會證明。但是可以肯定的是：加密貨幣政策和政治操縱的交集將是一次瘋狂的旅程。因此，搭扣，抓一些爆米花，享受節目。這會……有趣。