XRP必须超过这些价格水平，以使看跌预测无效 - 分析师

在X上发布的全新更新中，市场策略师DOM（@Traderview2）认为，单个定义明确的技术线路现在是XRP下一个定向移动的关键。

In a fresh update posted on X, market strategist Dom (@traderview2) argues that a single, well-defined technical line now holds the key to XRP’s next directional move. His six-hour TradingView chart shows the Binance XRP / USDT pair peaking at $2.48-2.50 overnight before stalling precisely at the volume-weighted average price anchored to the 2018 all-time high (the so-called “ATH VWAP”, plotted in green).

在X上发布的全新更新中，市场策略师DOM（@Traderview2）认为，单个定义明确的技术线路现在是XRP下一个定向移动的关键。他的六个小时的交易图表显示，Binance XRP / USDT对在一夜之间达到$ 2.48-2.50的高峰，然后以固定在2018年有史以来高中（所谓的“ ATH VWAP”）的速度加权平均价格上，以绿色绘制）。

Since late January that dynamically descending VWAP has capped every significant rally attempt and, on four separate occasions, triggered immediate, high-velocity rejections.

自1月下旬以来，动态下降的VWAP已限制了每一次重大的集会尝试，并在四个不同的场合触发了直接的高速拒绝。

The latest foray produced a brief spike to $2.4082 (session high) and a settling price of $2.3644, leaving a clear upper wick just beneath the VWAP. Dom calls the reaction “expected” given the pair’s very clean technical memory, but he also stresses that the market has already reclaimed a critical intermediate pivot: the quarterly VWAP at roughly $2.30.

最新的尝试使短暂的飙升至2.4082美元（会议高）和2.3644美元的结算价格，在VWAP下方留下了一个清晰的上部灯芯。鉴于两人的技术记忆非常干净，Dom称该反应为“预期”，但他还强调，市场已经重新夺回了一个关键的中间枢轴：季度VWAP的价格约为2.30美元。

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That level, the analyst notes, is now being “back-tested” intraday; a successful hold there would leave price wedged between converging support at $2.30 and resistance at the ATH VWAP near $2.48-2.50. A decisive close above the latter would, in Dom’s words, “open the sky for a larger breakout” by removing the final barrier that has contained XRP since its early-January high near $3.50.

分析师指出，该级别现在正在“经过测试”室内。成功的持有将使价格在2.30美元的收敛支持与ATH VWAP的电阻之间悬念，接近$ 2.48-2.50。用Dom的话来说，在后者上方的决定性近距离将“为更大的爆发开放天空”，即自从1月初高达3.50美元以来就删除了XRP的最终障碍。

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Order-flow data backs the bulls’ case. Dom has been tracking aggregated net flows by trade size and finds that tickets of 10,000–50,000 XRP and 50 000+ XRP have flipped firmly positive over the past three days, while smaller clips (100–1,000 and 1,000–10,000 XRP) have turned net-negative. “Little fish have sold the rip and bigger money has been behind it,” he wrote, adding that the dataset cannot distinguish between retail and institutional wallets but “very unlikely” points to exchange internalisation.

订单流数据支持公牛的情况。 DOM一直在跟踪按贸易规模的总净流量，发现在过去三天中，10,000–50,000 XRP和50 000+ XRP的门票稳定地呈正面，而较小的夹子（100-1,000-1,000-1,000-10-10,000 XRP）变成了净负号。他写道：“小鱼已经卖掉了撕裂，更大的金钱已经落后了。”他补充说，数据集无法区分零售和机构钱包，但“不太可能”指出了交换内在化的指向。

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Broader market context corroborates the sense of a maturing impulse. A separate CoinGlass heat-map of perpetual-swap annualised funding rates that Dom shared plots twenty-seven large-capitalisation altcoins from November through May. The graphic highlights two periods – late November to 9 December and the first weeks of May.

更广泛的市场环境证实了成熟的冲动感。从11月至5月，Dom共享了二十七个大型资本化山寨币的二十七个地块的单独的coinglass热图。图形凸显了两个时期 - 11月下旬至12月9日和5月的前几周。

The December cluster coincided with the “top of alts”, and he argues that the current cluster represents the most intense speculative pressure since that episode. “Strongest move in the altcoin market since November and funding looks like this… I said it last week and I’ll say it again. Hated rally,” Dom argues.

12月的集群与“替代品的顶部”相吻合，他认为当前的集群代表了自那集以来最巨大的投机压力。 “自11月以来，在Altcoin市场上最强劲的举动，资金看起来像这样……我上周说了，我会再说一遍。讨厌拉力赛，” Dom说。

Against that backdrop, the immediate technical roadmap remains binary. XRP must first defend the $2.30 quarterly VWAP, a level that has switched from resistance to support within the last forty-eight hours. Hold that shelf and traders will continue to probe the ATH VWAP ceiling. Lose it, and the path of least resistance swings back toward the mid-$2.00s congestion that defined most of April.

在这种背景下，直接的技术路线图仍然是二元的。 XRP必须首先捍卫$ 2.30的季度VWAP，这一水平已从阻力转换为最后48个小时内的支撑。认为货架和交易员将继续探究Ath Vwap天花板。丢失了它，阻力最小的道路回到了四月份大部分时间的2.​​00美元中期。

But should bulls finally force acceptance above the descending VWAP – a feat they have not achieved once this year – the analyst sees little in the way of overhead supply until the mid-$2.70s, the lower boundary of the late-January distribution block. As Dom concludes, “Acceptance above ATH VWAP opens the sky for a larger breakout.”

但是，如果公牛最终将降至下降的VWAP上方强制接受 - 这是他们今年没有实现的一项壮举 - 分析师直到1.70美元中期（1.70美元）（1月下旬的分销街区的下边界）都看不到间接费用的供应方式。正如Dom总结的那样，“ Ath Vwap上方的接受为更大的突破打开了天空。”

At press time, XRP traded at $2.46.

发稿时，XRP的交易价格为2.46美元。