XRP必須超過這些價格水平，以使看跌預測無效 - 分析師

在X上發布的全新更新中，市場策略師DOM（@Traderview2）認為，單個定義明確的技術線路現在是XRP下一個定向移動的關鍵。

In a fresh update posted on X, market strategist Dom (@traderview2) argues that a single, well-defined technical line now holds the key to XRP’s next directional move. His six-hour TradingView chart shows the Binance XRP / USDT pair peaking at $2.48-2.50 overnight before stalling precisely at the volume-weighted average price anchored to the 2018 all-time high (the so-called “ATH VWAP”, plotted in green).

在X上發布的全新更新中，市場策略師DOM（@Traderview2）認為，單個定義明確的技術線路現在是XRP下一個定向移動的關鍵。他的六個小時的交易圖表顯示，Binance XRP / USDT對在一夜之間達到$ 2.48-2.50的高峰，然後以固定在2018年有史以來高中（所謂的“ ATH VWAP”）的速度加權平均價格上，以綠色繪製）。

Since late January that dynamically descending VWAP has capped every significant rally attempt and, on four separate occasions, triggered immediate, high-velocity rejections.

自1月下旬以來，動態下降的VWAP已限制了每一次重大的集會嘗試，並在四個不同的場合觸發了直接的高速拒絕。

The latest foray produced a brief spike to $2.4082 (session high) and a settling price of $2.3644, leaving a clear upper wick just beneath the VWAP. Dom calls the reaction “expected” given the pair’s very clean technical memory, but he also stresses that the market has already reclaimed a critical intermediate pivot: the quarterly VWAP at roughly $2.30.

最新的嘗試使短暫的飆升至2.4082美元（會議高）和2.3644美元的結算價格，在VWAP下方留下了一個清晰的上部燈芯。鑑於兩人的技術記憶非常乾淨，Dom稱該反應為“預期”，但他還強調，市場已經重新奪回了一個關鍵的中間樞軸：季度VWAP的價格約為2.30美元。

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XRP必須超過這些價格水平，以使看跌預測無效 - 分析師

That level, the analyst notes, is now being “back-tested” intraday; a successful hold there would leave price wedged between converging support at $2.30 and resistance at the ATH VWAP near $2.48-2.50. A decisive close above the latter would, in Dom’s words, “open the sky for a larger breakout” by removing the final barrier that has contained XRP since its early-January high near $3.50.

分析師指出，該級別現在正在“經過測試”室內。成功的持有將使價格在2.30美元的收斂支持與ATH VWAP的電阻之間懸念，接近$ 2.48-2.50。用Dom的話來說，在後者上方的決定性近距離將“為更大的爆發開放天空”，即自從1月初高達3.50美元以來就刪除了XRP的最終障礙。

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Order-flow data backs the bulls’ case. Dom has been tracking aggregated net flows by trade size and finds that tickets of 10,000–50,000 XRP and 50 000+ XRP have flipped firmly positive over the past three days, while smaller clips (100–1,000 and 1,000–10,000 XRP) have turned net-negative. “Little fish have sold the rip and bigger money has been behind it,” he wrote, adding that the dataset cannot distinguish between retail and institutional wallets but “very unlikely” points to exchange internalisation.

訂單流數據支持公牛的情況。 DOM一直在跟踪按貿易規模的總淨流量，發現在過去三天中，10,000–50,000 XRP和50 000+ XRP的門票穩定地呈正面，而較小的夾子（100-1,000-1,000-1,000-10-10,000 XRP）變成了淨負號。他寫道：“小魚已經賣掉了撕裂，更大的金錢已經落後了。”他補充說，數據集無法區分零售和機構錢包，但“不太可能”指出了交換內在化的指向。

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Broader market context corroborates the sense of a maturing impulse. A separate CoinGlass heat-map of perpetual-swap annualised funding rates that Dom shared plots twenty-seven large-capitalisation altcoins from November through May. The graphic highlights two periods – late November to 9 December and the first weeks of May.

更廣泛的市場環境證實了成熟的衝動感。從11月至5月，Dom共享了二十七個大型資本化山寨幣的二十七個地塊的單獨的coinglass熱圖。圖形凸顯了兩個時期 - 11月下旬至12月9日和5月的前幾週。

The December cluster coincided with the “top of alts”, and he argues that the current cluster represents the most intense speculative pressure since that episode. “Strongest move in the altcoin market since November and funding looks like this… I said it last week and I’ll say it again. Hated rally,” Dom argues.

12月的集群與“替代品的頂部”相吻合，他認為當前的集群代表了自那集以來最巨大的投機壓力。 “自11月以來，在Altcoin市場上最強勁的舉動，資金看起來像這樣……我上周說了，我會再說一遍。討厭拉力賽，” Dom說。

Against that backdrop, the immediate technical roadmap remains binary. XRP must first defend the $2.30 quarterly VWAP, a level that has switched from resistance to support within the last forty-eight hours. Hold that shelf and traders will continue to probe the ATH VWAP ceiling. Lose it, and the path of least resistance swings back toward the mid-$2.00s congestion that defined most of April.

在這種背景下，直接的技術路線圖仍然是二元的。 XRP必須首先捍衛$ 2.30的季度VWAP，這一水平已從阻力轉換為最後48個小時內的支撐。認為貨架和交易員將繼續探究Ath Vwap天花板。丟失了它，阻力最小的道路回到了四月份大部分時間的2.​​00美元中期。

But should bulls finally force acceptance above the descending VWAP – a feat they have not achieved once this year – the analyst sees little in the way of overhead supply until the mid-$2.70s, the lower boundary of the late-January distribution block. As Dom concludes, “Acceptance above ATH VWAP opens the sky for a larger breakout.”

但是，如果公牛最終將降至下降的VWAP上方強制接受 - 這是他們今年沒有實現的一項壯舉 - 分析師直到1.70美元中期（1.70美元）（1月下旬的分銷街區的下邊界）都看不到間接費用的供應方式。正如Dom總結的那樣，“ Ath Vwap上方的接受為更大的突破打開了天空。”

At press time, XRP traded at $2.46.

發稿時，XRP的交易價格為2.46美元。