作为100000美元的象征性门槛，比特币进入了一个湍流区域

由于市场仍然脆弱，由于持续的技术紧张局势而放缓，并要求努力保持潜在的供应，因此这种关键信号发出。

As bitcoin approaches the symbolic threshold of $100,000, entering a zone of turbulence, Long-Term Holders are recording unrealized gains of nearly 350 %, according to on-chain analysis firm Glassnode.

根据链分析公司GlassNode的数据，随着比特币接近100,000美元的象征性门槛，进入一个动荡的区域，长期持有人的记录未实现的增长近350％。

This critical signal comes as the market remains vulnerable, slowed by persistent technical tensions and demand struggling to keep pace with potential supply.

由于市场仍然脆弱，由于持续的技术紧张局势而放缓，并要求努力保持潜在的供应，因此这种关键信号发出。

Record unrealized gains among Long-Term Holders: a critical threshold reached

记录长期持有人的未实现收益：达到关键的门槛

In its latest weekly report, the firm highlights a key metric to watch closely: LTHs, defined as investors who have held BTC for more six months, are collectively approaching an unrealized profit margin of 350 %.

该公司在其最新的每周报告中重点介绍了密切关注的关键指标：定义为持有BTC六个月的投资者的LTHS共同接近未实现的利润率为350％。

This level, usually associated with waves of profit-taking, could again play a decisive role.

这种水平通常与获利浪潮有关，可以再次发挥决定性作用。

Glassnode emphasizes: “Historically speaking, the cohort of Long-Term Holders increases its selling pressure when the average member holds an unrealized profit margin of +350 %. This threshold coincides precisely with a spot price estimated at $99,900, very close to the psychological barrier of $100,000.”

GlassNode强调：“从历史上讲，当平均成员的未实现利润率为+350％时，长期持有人的队列增加了其销售压力。这个门槛与估计的99,900美元的现货价格相吻合，非常接近于心理障碍，为100,000美元。”

However, they specify that, so far, these investors are known for their remarkable resilience, preferring to hold onto their gains rather than taking profits.

但是，他们指出，到目前为止，这些投资者以其非凡的韧性而闻名，宁愿保持收益而不是获得利润。

Yet, some indicators suggest that a shift could be imminent. The analysis highlights: “A portion of this unrealized gain will quickly translate into realized gain if the price drops further. In other words, if buyers do not show up to absorb this potential supply, the market could experience a redistribution phase, with immediate implications for the price.”

但是，一些指标表明可能会发生转变。分析强调：“如果价格进一步下跌，这一未实现的收益的一部分将迅速转化为已实现的收益。换句话说，如果买家不出现来吸收这种潜在的供应，那么市场可能会经历重新分配阶段，并立即对价格产生影响。”

Previous cycles have shown that this type of configuration often precedes short- or medium-term corrections.

以前的周期表明，这种类型的配置通常在短期或中期校正之前。

Technical vulnerabilities and market imbalances: the risk of a sudden reversal

技术脆弱性和市场失衡：突然逆转的风险

Beyond the psychological factors linked to Long-Term Holders' profits, several technical indicators suggest that the current momentum could falter.

除了与长期持有人的利润相关的心理因素之外，几个技术指标还表明，当前的势头可能会动摇。

Trader TheKingfisher on Monday, May 1, highlighted a major imbalance in order books. On X (formerly Twitter: Twitter, Inc ), he noted a “massive wall of long liquidations” stacked below $91,000, while short positions above $96,600 are almost non-existent.

Trader Thekingfisher于5月1日星期一强调了订单书的重大失衡。在X（以前是Twitter：Twitter，Inc）上，他指出了“长期清算的巨大墙”，堆积在91,000美元以下，而低于96,600美元的短职位几乎不存在。

He stated: “The enormous imbalance suggests a strong downward magnet. The risk to long positions is high at these levels. The bullish potential seems low for now.”

他说：“巨大的失衡表明有强大的向下磁铁。在这些水平上，长位置的风险很高。目前，看涨的潜力似乎很低。”

This vulnerability is all the more notable as bitcoin has barely crossed technically critical levels, such as the 111-day simple moving average (SMA) and the average realized price of short-term holders (STH).

由于比特币在技术上几乎没有跨越至关重要的水平，例如111天简单的移动平均线（SMA）和短期持有人（STH）的平均实现价格，因此这种脆弱性更为明显。

Glassnode indicates that these thresholds have just been surpassed but remain precarious. These are levels that must be crossed and maintained to allow further price appreciation. A rejection could bring the price into a bearish zone and plunge many investors into significant unrealized losses.

玻璃节点表明这些阈值刚刚超过，但仍然不稳定。这些是必须越过和维护的水平，以便进一步欣赏价格。拒绝可以将价格带入看跌区，并使许多投资者陷入巨大的未实现损失。

The accumulation of technical tensions combined with the prospect of massive selling by LTH paints an uncertain scenario for the coming weeks.

技术紧张局势的积累加上LTH大规模销售的前景，在接下来的几周内表现出不确定的情况。

If bitcoin manages to stabilize above $100,000, it would be a remarkable sign of strength. However, in the absence of sufficient demand influx, downward pressure could quickly regain control. The next battle will therefore be at the crossroads of these psychological, technical, and behavioral thresholds.

如果比特币设法稳定在100,000美元以上，那将是一个显着的力量迹象。但是，在没有足够需求涌入的情况下，向下压力可能会迅速恢复控制。因此，下一个战斗将是这些心理，技术和行为阈值的十字路口。